With the Cowboys and Giants once again set to tussle in East Rutherford shortly, here's an update on the state of those offenses after three weeks of action. The Commanders and Eagles will be added tomorrow.
Dallas Cowboys
Total Offense: 343.3/game (t-9th)
Passing Yards: 269.7/game (1st)
Rushing Yards: 73.7/game (30th)
Offensive TDs: 6 (t-18th)
Prediction: Both passing and rushing numbers regress toward the median and the touchdowns increase
After spending the bulk of the season opener leading by 2+ scores, the Cowboys spent 96 and a half minutes trailing by 7+ points in their 120 minutes of September football at JerryWorld. This collapse in run-friendly game script has begun to expose the flaws in the Dallas rushing attack post-Kellen Moore: After finishing ninth in the NFL in rushing yardage with a 4.32 yards per carry mark that was good for 18th (and probably would have been better but for Ezekiel Elliott and his sapped legs) in 2022, Dallas slid to 14th in the league in team rushing on a 4.10ypc mark in 2023 despite the subtraction of Elliott and the continuation of big honkin’ leads. With the return of Zeke, and despite teams often giving the Cowboys the run to keep the clock running the last two weeks, the run game has finally collapsed: Dallas running backs rank 31st in the NFL in explosive run rate, 28th in stuff rate (runs that go for less than 3 yards and don’t result in either a touchdown or a touchdown), 30th in missed tackles forced, 31st in yards after contact… you get the idea, they stink. Somewhat amusingly, Cowboys running backs are also 13th in the NFL in yards before contact – can’t really blame the offensive line for the run game struggles.
There is cause for some optimism though. While Cowboys running backs have been going nowhere fast so far, they have also crossed swords with the league’s 13th, 8th, and now top-ranked run defenses to open 2024, so it is possible that this could at least in part be a function of their quality of opposition. And between the aforementioned yards before contact numbers and the fact that the Cowboys have had no trouble keeping Dak Prescott’s numbers fat and happy (29.3% pressure rate is 28th-lowest among qualifying QBs, Pressure Rate Over Expected 25th) despite some early season struggles for Prescott himself (19.7% off target throw rate is currently eighth-highest in the league, -5.1% completion percentage over expected is 31st in the league), we have the makings of an argument that this is a unit that is still knocking off the rust and has had some bad luck in terms of who they've played, and when. It’s hard to recommend Rico Dowdle or Elliott especially strongly here against New York, but it’s the last remotely appealing match-up that either will see until Thanksgiving.
But all that could start to go out the window in a hurry if Dallas loses to the Giants tonight. There was already a palpable air of doom and gloom around the Cowboys heading into 2024, and Jerry’s pea-brained, ‘sing for your supper’ routine with his two superstars over contract extensions everyone and their brother knew were coming didn’t help the mood any. A brutal, relentless shellacking at home in the playoffs that was eight months ago feels a lot more recent on the heels of two mostly-embarrassing home showings to open the season, and the Cowboys get dates with the Steelers and Lions next; a loss tonight would put a 1-5 start squarely in play. Dallas - and more specifically, lame duck HC Mike McCarthy - desperately needs to not only win this game, but to do so convincingly. Not letting another team run all over them (the Cowboys defense is currently allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game – yikes) would be a good start.
Another good start should be CeeDee Lamb, who put 11 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown on the Giants when last they met. And Lamb (and his fantasy owners) could certainly go for a cake matchup right about now, as Lamb’s WR19 standing through three games is propped up by a 65-yard touchdown in the Saints game that was purely a product of a mind-numbingly bad pursuit angle by Tyrann Mathieu reminiscent of the Minneapolis Miracle. Lamb was the WR20 last year going into Week 5; we know how that ended. The Giants have surrendered WR4 and WR15 days to opposing team’s #1 receivers thus far. Expect good things tonight. Brandin Cooks is a fine enough flex option, but Jalen Tolbert’s involvement the last two games is notable: Tolbert has now run 104 routes to Cooks’ 105 on the young season, and has been Prescott's first read on 14.1% of them to Cooks’ 15.3% (Lamb at 109 and 24.7% respectively for context). Cooks has had a slight edge in snaps and remains the nominal #2 receiver ahead of Tolbert, but the Cowboys being down huge basically nonstop the last two weeks has put Tolbert on the field just as much as Cooks and Lamb. If you think the Cowboys take care of business tonight then Cooks becomes a slightly better play, since that should mean less Tolbert on the field (67% snap rate for Tolbert week 1, 80% last two games). Jake Ferguson piled up a meaty 11 targets on 66% of the snaps in his return to action last week, so continue firing him up.
New York Giants
Total Offense: 294.7/game (22nd)
Passing Yards: 189.7 (21st)
Rushing Yards: 105.0/game (19th)
Offensive TDs: 6 (t-18th)
Prediction: What you see is what you’ll get
A 28-6 home blowout at the hands of the Vikings has been softened considerably over the last two weeks: the Vikings are for real, and the Giants very likely would have won both of their other two games but for Graham Gano’s cranky hamstring. Daniel Jones has followed up a clunker in that season opener with QB6 and QB11 performances, games that have dovetailed with a two-week stretch from rookie phenom Malik Nabers that has already erased any doubt regarding whether or not he could stage a hostile takeover as a 21-year old: 30 targets (1st in NFL last two weeks), 47.9% target share (1st by a lot), and 47.9 fantasy points in half PPR scoring (1st). It’s tenuous, but it would appear Jones is good enough to enable Nabers’ fantasy ceiling as a rookie – just barely.
The Cowboys show as a tough matchup for the Giants pass catchers as a whole, but that’s owing far more to how much fun teams have had running the ball against them. Trevon Diggs and Co. are of no material concern for Nabers; double-digit targets are on tap here. As for Jones, the stars (pun partially intended) are at least partially aligned for him to get the ‘can’t beat Dallas’ monkey off of his back (1-7 record vs. DAL), dealing a potential death blow to their division rival’s 2024 campaign in the process. This feels like a chance for “Danny Dimes” to get his Giants tenure back on track – quite possibly his last one. He’s an acceptable streaming option here, provided your four leaf clovers and rabbit’s feet are in good working order.
Coming off of consecutive top-18 performances against the league’s swingingest swinging gate run defense and enjoying something close to three-down duties, Devin Singletary is a guy you probably drafted like a flex that should eat like a meal here against the 'Boys. But Singletary is where I hop off the Giants bandwagon for now; uber-diminutive slot man Wan’Dale Robinson has seen eight targets a game through three weeks, but his next top-30 WR finish this year will be his first. Play with fire, get burned. Darius Slayton has conceded almost the entirety of his targets to Nabers. New York Giants tight ends catching passes is fast approaching Bigfoot sighting status, as they have combined for a whopping four receptions in three games. This offense can’t support more than 2 or 3 fantasy-relevant names at a time – even two represents tremendous progress here. As my dear grandma Arlene says, “It’s not how far you go, but how far you’ve come."
Coming Soon: Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders
—Luke Wilson
