Alabama's Eddie Lacy is widely viewed as the upcoming draft's top running back prospect, perhaps the only one likely to be selected with a first-round pick. He comes off an impressive final season that saw him rush for 1,322 yards while averaging 6.5 yards per carry.
Does that lofty yards per carry mean much for his NFL future? At a glance, it doesn't look like it. Of the 61 running backs selected in the first round of the draft over the last 20 years, 23 of them have averaged more than 6.0 yards per carry in their final college season. Looking at the list, there are some good backs, but only a couple of NFL difference-makers -- and far more busts.
This is not to say Lacy won't be a good pro; far from it. But don't let that 6.5 figure sway your thinking.
The rushing numbers in the final year of college for those 61 backs, sorted by yards per carry, are presented below. Note that among the top 10, four of the five that are still active are expected to be available in free agency this offseason.
Final college season, 1st-round RBs, 1993-2012
YPC Att Yds
8.7 133 1162 Felix Jones
8.7 200 1740 Reggie Bush
7.8 198 1539 Ki-Jana Carter
7.7 271 2087 Larry Johnson
7.4 96 712 Lawrence Phillips
6.9 298 2055 Rashaan Salaam
6.8 228 1547 Garrison Hearst
6.6 276 1808 Ryan Mathews
6.4 262 1681 Rashard Mendenhall
6.3 310 1964 DeAngelo Williams
6.3 253 1602 Trung Canidate
6.2 189 1179 Warrick Dunn
6.2 282 1753 Willis McGahee
6.2 279 1724 Tim Biakabutuka
6.2 280 1722 Jonathan Stewart
6.1 141 867 Jahvid Best
6.1 202 1239 Antowain Smith
6.1 223 1356 Marshawn Lynch
6.1 303 1834 Ron Dayne
6.0 170 1028 James Stewart
6.0 214 1292 Fred Taylor
6.0 236 1423 Chris Johnson
6.0 303 1826 Eddie George
6.0 228 1363 Curtis Enis
6.0 153 913 Ronnie Brown
5.9 283 1679 Trent Richardson
5.9 290 1709 David Wilson
5.9 361 2124 Ricky Williams
5.9 265 1559 William Green
5.9 281 1647 Kevin Jones
5.9 242 1416 Edgerrin James
5.8 369 2158 LaDainian Tomlinson
5.8 207 1197 Beanie Wells
5.7 124 707 Greg Hill
5.7 367 2083 Donald Brown
5.6 325 1830 Darren McFadden
5.6 326 1834 Cedric Benson
5.6 216 1212 C.J. Spiller
5.6 250 1400 Knowshon Moreno
5.6 147 819 Robert Smith
5.5 158 875 Mark Ingram
5.5 165 908 Robert Edwards
5.5 253 1390 Napoleon Kaufman
5.5 194 1064 Tyrone Wheatley
5.4 294 1598 Michael Bennett
5.4 334 1798 Thomas Jones
5.4 188 1012 Adrian Peterson
5.3 156 825 Jerome Bettis
5.2 236 1236 T.J. Duckett
5.2 281 1464 Laurence Maroney
5.2 166 862 John Avery
5.1 300 1530 Marshall Faulk
5.1 63 321 William Floyd
5.0 338 1674 Chris Perry
4.9 263 1299 Doug Martin
4.9 239 1165 Cadillac Williams
4.9 187 911 Joseph Addai
4.8 159 767 Deuce McAllister
4.6 302 1383 Shaun Alexander
4.5 182 817 Jamal Lewis
4.4 350 1545 Steven Jackson
--Andy Richardson