There’s a little bit too much optimism, I think, with the Chicago Bears. I’m surprised to see them at 4-2, but scheduling has played a big role in their good start. I expect scheduling will also contribute to them falling off the pace before long.
The Bears, if we take a step back, haven’t really beaten anyone. Their four wins have come against the Titans (1-4), Rams (1-4), Panthers (1-5) and Jaguars (1-5).
Through six weeks, if my numbers are correct, only the Dolphins and Browns have played easier schedules. (The schedule makes Cleveland’s sputtering start look even more damning.)
In the who “who have you played” game, The Bucs, Vikings, Ravens, Falcons, Texans and Kansas City look the most impressive. They’ve all won at least four games despite playing the hardest schedules.
In the chart below, you’re seeing the win-loss records of opponents so far in games against other teams. That is, Minnesota’s opponents are 16-14, but they’re 16-9 in their games against other teams (and just 0-5 against the Vikings).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (so far) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Miami | 7 | 17 | .292 |
Cleveland | 10 | 19 | .345 |
Chicago | 10 | 18 | .357 |
San Francisco | 11 | 17 | .393 |
Carolina | 12 | 17 | .414 |
Las Vegas | 12 | 17 | .414 |
New England | 12 | 17 | .414 |
Seattle | 12 | 16 | .429 |
Washington | 13 | 17 | .433 |
Cincinnati | 13 | 16 | .448 |
Tennessee | 11 | 13 | .458 |
NY Jets | 13 | 15 | .464 |
Buffalo | 14 | 15 | .483 |
Dallas | 14 | 15 | .483 |
Jacksonville | 14 | 15 | .483 |
NY Giants | 14 | 15 | .483 |
Detroit | 12 | 12 | .500 |
Green Bay | 13 | 13 | .500 |
Denver | 15 | 14 | .517 |
Philadelphia | 13 | 12 | .520 |
LA Chargers | 13 | 11 | .542 |
LA Rams | 13 | 11 | .542 |
Indianapolis | 16 | 13 | .552 |
Pittsburgh | 16 | 13 | .552 |
Arizona | 16 | 12 | .571 |
New Orleans | 16 | 12 | .571 |
Houston | 17 | 12 | .586 |
Atlanta | 17 | 11 | .607 |
Baltimore | 18 | 11 | .621 |
Kansas City | 15 | 9 | .625 |
Minnesota | 16 | 9 | .640 |
Tampa Bay | 18 | 10 | .643 |
Looking instead at what’s coming up, the Bears have the biggest scheduling shift, with the most difficult schedule the rest of the way. Their remaining opponents currently have a win-loss record of 39-23. That includes two games each against those other three head bangers in the NFC North.
I will admit that Caleb Williams has looked better of late. He’s finding his footing, and they’ve been running the ball better. But my hunch is that will still wind up being the last-place team in a tough division.
Other teams that so far have played easy schedules who’ll be playing schedules that are about to get a lot harder: Browns, 49ers, Panthers.
The Saints and Cardinals are the two teams with schedules that will flip the other way. Their opponents have both gone 16-12 so far, but they’ll both top-6 schedules the rest of the way. I don’t see either of these teams turning things around (especially the Saints) but they’ll be helped some by scheduling.
In the following chart, you’re looking at strength of schedule for the next 11 weeks. (Most fantasy leagues conclude before Week 18, so those numbers aren’t included.)
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 7-17) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
New England | 23 | 33 | .411 |
Miami | 28 | 37 | .431 |
New Orleans | 25 | 33 | .431 |
Cincinnati | 25 | 32 | .439 |
Philadelphia | 29 | 36 | .446 |
Arizona | 25 | 31 | .446 |
NY Jets | 26 | 32 | .448 |
LA Chargers | 29 | 35 | .453 |
Buffalo | 25 | 30 | .455 |
LA Rams | 29 | 34 | .460 |
Denver | 27 | 31 | .466 |
Washington | 27 | 30 | .474 |
Pittsburgh | 28 | 30 | .483 |
Tampa Bay | 28 | 30 | .483 |
Minnesota | 31 | 32 | .492 |
Kansas City | 32 | 33 | .492 |
Jacksonville | 28 | 27 | .509 |
Houston | 29 | 27 | .518 |
Indianapolis | 29 | 27 | .518 |
Las Vegas | 29 | 27 | .518 |
Tennessee | 33 | 30 | .524 |
Atlanta | 31 | 27 | .534 |
Baltimore | 31 | 27 | .534 |
Dallas | 31 | 27 | .534 |
Seattle | 31 | 27 | .534 |
NY Giants | 32 | 27 | .542 |
Cleveland | 31 | 26 | .544 |
Carolina | 32 | 26 | .552 |
Green Bay | 33 | 23 | .589 |
Detroit | 38 | 26 | .594 |
San Francisco | 34 | 22 | .607 |
Chicago | 35 | 21 | .625 |
—Ian Allan