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Scheduletron

Bad News Bearer

Chicago's schedule about to get a lot harder

There’s a little bit too much optimism, I think, with the Chicago Bears. I’m surprised to see them at 4-2, but scheduling has played a big role in their good start. I expect scheduling will also contribute to them falling off the pace before long.

The Bears, if we take a step back, haven’t really beaten anyone. Their four wins have come against the Titans (1-4), Rams (1-4), Panthers (1-5) and Jaguars (1-5).

Through six weeks, if my numbers are correct, only the Dolphins and Browns have played easier schedules. (The schedule makes Cleveland’s sputtering start look even more damning.)

In the who “who have you played” game, The Bucs, Vikings, Ravens, Falcons, Texans and Kansas City look the most impressive. They’ve all won at least four games despite playing the hardest schedules.

In the chart below, you’re seeing the win-loss records of opponents so far in games against other teams. That is, Minnesota’s opponents are 16-14, but they’re 16-9 in their games against other teams (and just 0-5 against the Vikings).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (so far)
TeamWLPct
Miami717.292
Cleveland1019.345
Chicago1018.357
San Francisco1117.393
Carolina1217.414
Las Vegas1217.414
New England1217.414
Seattle1216.429
Washington1317.433
Cincinnati1316.448
Tennessee1113.458
NY Jets1315.464
Buffalo1415.483
Dallas1415.483
Jacksonville1415.483
NY Giants1415.483
Detroit1212.500
Green Bay1313.500
Denver1514.517
Philadelphia1312.520
LA Chargers1311.542
LA Rams1311.542
Indianapolis1613.552
Pittsburgh1613.552
Arizona1612.571
New Orleans1612.571
Houston1712.586
Atlanta1711.607
Baltimore1811.621
Kansas City159.625
Minnesota169.640
Tampa Bay1810.643

Looking instead at what’s coming up, the Bears have the biggest scheduling shift, with the most difficult schedule the rest of the way. Their remaining opponents currently have a win-loss record of 39-23. That includes two games each against those other three head bangers in the NFC North.

I will admit that Caleb Williams has looked better of late. He’s finding his footing, and they’ve been running the ball better. But my hunch is that will still wind up being the last-place team in a tough division.

Other teams that so far have played easy schedules who’ll be playing schedules that are about to get a lot harder: Browns, 49ers, Panthers.

The Saints and Cardinals are the two teams with schedules that will flip the other way. Their opponents have both gone 16-12 so far, but they’ll both top-6 schedules the rest of the way. I don’t see either of these teams turning things around (especially the Saints) but they’ll be helped some by scheduling.

In the following chart, you’re looking at strength of schedule for the next 11 weeks. (Most fantasy leagues conclude before Week 18, so those numbers aren’t included.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 7-17)
TeamWLPct
New England2333.411
Miami2837.431
New Orleans2533.431
Cincinnati2532.439
Philadelphia2936.446
Arizona2531.446
NY Jets2632.448
LA Chargers2935.453
Buffalo2530.455
LA Rams2934.460
Denver2731.466
Washington2730.474
Pittsburgh2830.483
Tampa Bay2830.483
Minnesota3132.492
Kansas City3233.492
Jacksonville2827.509
Houston2927.518
Indianapolis2927.518
Las Vegas2927.518
Tennessee3330.524
Atlanta3127.534
Baltimore3127.534
Dallas3127.534
Seattle3127.534
NY Giants3227.542
Cleveland3126.544
Carolina3226.552
Green Bay3323.589
Detroit3826.594
San Francisco3422.607
Chicago3521.625

—Ian Allan

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