The Patriots and Bears were the two big surprises of the season. Two years after picking in the top 3, both won their divisions with first-year coaches. But both will contend with dramatically harder schedules in 2026.
Both had easy schedules in the just-completed season. In the case of the Patriots, they played a historically soft slate, with their opponents going a combined 110-162 in their games against other teams. Chicago’s opponents went only 125-144-3. That helped to accelerate the turnaround for both clubs.
But both will play first-place schedules next year. Chicago’s schedule, on paper, projects to be the hardest in the league. New England’s upcoming opponents went 148-140-1, slotting them 20th (not terrible, but a lot harder than last year).
Strength of schedule for 2026 appears below. For the five teams with the biggest swings towards easiness, they’re in bold. For the five teams with the biggest swings together difficulty, they’re tagged with black dots.
| 2026 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct | 2025 |
| Cleveland | 124 | 165 | 0 | .429 | 128-143-1 |
| New Orleans | 125 | 163 | 1 | .434 | 132-140-0 |
| Cincinnati | 130 | 159 | 0 | .450 | 139-132-1 |
| Indianapolis | 134 | 154 | 1 | .465 | 147-125-0 |
| Atlanta | 134 | 154 | 1 | .465 | 134-138-0 |
| Detroit | 134 | 153 | 2 | .467 | 132-137-3 |
| Houston | 136 | 151 | 2 | .474 | 146-126-0 |
| Tennessee | 137 | 151 | 1 | .476 | 152-120-0 |
| Baltimore | 138 | 150 | 1 | .479 | 137-134-1 |
| Philadelphia | 138 | 149 | 2 | .481 | 130-139-3 |
| Jacksonville | 141 | 147 | 1 | .490 | 134-138-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 141 | 146 | 2 | .491 | 144-128-0 |
| • Dallas | 142 | 146 | 1 | .493 | 117-155-0 |
| Pittsburgh | 143 | 146 | 0 | .495 | 138-133-1 |
| San Francisco | 143 | 145 | 1 | .497 | 139-133-0 |
| NY Giants | 143 | 144 | 2 | .498 | 137-132-3 |
| Washington | 144 | 143 | 2 | .502 | 133-136-3 |
| • Denver | 148 | 141 | 0 | .512 | 118-152-2 |
| Seattle | 148 | 140 | 1 | .514 | 141-131-0 |
| • New England | 148 | 140 | 1 | .514 | 110-162-0 |
| LA Rams | 148 | 139 | 2 | .516 | 147-125-0 |
| NY Jets | 149 | 139 | 1 | .517 | 145-126-1 |
| Minnesota | 149 | 138 | 2 | .519 | 139-130-3 |
| Carolina | 150 | 138 | 1 | .521 | 141-129-2 |
| LA Chargers | 151 | 138 | 0 | .522 | 129-142-1 |
| Buffalo | 152 | 136 | 1 | .528 | 131-141-0 |
| Las Vegas | 153 | 136 | 0 | .529 | 141-130-1 |
| Kansas City | 155 | 134 | 0 | .536 | 137-134-1 |
| Arizona | 155 | 133 | 1 | .538 | 150-120-2 |
| Green Bay | 155 | 133 | 1 | .538 | 132-140-0 |
| • Miami | 156 | 132 | 1 | .542 | 131-141-0 |
| • Chicago | 158 | 129 | 2 | .550 | 125-144-3 |
If we look at schedule via points (allowed by defenses) rather than wins, the Bears and Patriots still grade out as teams that will play much harder schedules. Chicago’s opponents project to allowed a point per game less. At 22.0 points per game, they ranked next-to-last, ahead of only the Raiders. And the Patriots project to be a point and half per game harder.
Via points, the Browns oddly project to play the easiest schedule in the league for the second year in a row – 24.3 points, on average, in both seasons.
In the chart below, teams whose schedule got at least 16 spots easier (in the 1 thru 32 rankings) are in bold. Houston, for example, on paper should have the 4th-easiest schedule; it ranked 26th last year in schedule difficulty.
Teams with schedules dropping at least 16 ranking slots in difficulty are tagged with black dots. Patriots, as an example, played opponents allowing the 2nd-most points last year; the numbers suggest they’ll be 24th this year.
| 2026 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '26 | '25 | +/- |
| Cleveland | 24.3 | 24.3 | 0 |
| Philadelphia | 24.2 | 23.8 | +5 |
| New Orleans | 23.9 | 23.9 | +2 |
| Houston | 23.9 | 22.5 | +22 |
| Baltimore | 23.6 | 22.8 | +16 |
| Tennessee | 23.6 | 21.3 | +26 |
| Detroit | 23.6 | 22.8 | +12 |
| Jacksonville | 23.5 | 22.7 | +16 |
| Minnesota | 23.5 | 24.0 | -5 |
| Washington | 23.5 | 23.0 | +6 |
| NY Giants | 23.4 | 22.8 | +7 |
| Tampa Bay | 23.2 | 22.4 | +16 |
| Indianapolis | 23.1 | 21.6 | +18 |
| Atlanta | 23.1 | 23.1 | -2 |
| Seattle | 23.1 | 22.7 | +8 |
| Green Bay | 23.0 | 23.9 | -10 |
| Cincinnati | 22.9 | 22.7 | +5 |
| Dallas | 22.9 | 23.0 | -5 |
| Pittsburgh | 22.8 | 23.6 | -10 |
| • Miami | 22.8 | 24.1 | -17 |
| Kansas City | 22.8 | 22.9 | -4 |
| LA Rams | 22.8 | 22.1 | +7 |
| San Francisco | 22.7 | 22.5 | +2 |
| • New England | 22.6 | 24.2 | -22 |
| NY Jets | 22.5 | 23.2 | -14 |
| • Carolina | 22.5 | 23.5 | -16 |
| Buffalo | 22.4 | 22.8 | -7 |
| Arizona | 22.3 | 22.5 | -1 |
| • Denver | 22.2 | 23.6 | -21 |
| LA Chargers | 22.0 | 22.0 | 0 |
| • Chicago | 22.0 | 23.0 | -16 |
| • Las Vegas | 21.8 | 23.0 | -18 |
All of these numbers, of course, are somewhat flimsy. A bunch of teams will be dramatically better or worse than last year. But if we want to try estimate how things will play out, this is what the current numbers suggest.
—Ian Allan

