Fantasy Index

Ask the Experts

How much does weather impact your lineup decisions?

"Neither wind, nor rain...."

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: How much does weather impact your lineup decisions?

HOWARD BENDER

Weather being a factor is often one of the most overrated aspects of game analysis. Sure, there are games where the wind is so wild it affects deep passing and kicking or there is so much precipitation that you have to adjust your thinking of how invested you really want to be in the game, but more often than not, it doesn't have nearly the effect fantasy players imagine. Having interviewed several NFL players and asked about big snow games and such, they all tell a very similar story. The advantage in a wet or snowy game tilts to the offense. The guy running with the football and making the cuts knows exactly where he is going. The defender does not and therefore has to pivot much quicker which means they're much more susceptible to slipping and missing. The games aren't ideal targets, but they are never as bad as we make them out to be in our heads.

Bender is a longtime veteran of the fantasy sports industry and the 2008 runner-up for People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive. He serves as the Head of Content for FantasyAlarm.com, a weekly columnist for the New York Post and is the host of the award-winning Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (M-F 6-8pm ET). You can find him on X, IG and Facebook as @rotobuzzguy and on TikTok as @therealrotobuzzguy.

SAM HENDRICKS

Always play your studs. High winds will drive me to reconsider QB and WR options but helps RBs in many cases and occasionally TEs for short passes. Kickers are affected the most by swirling winds or strong gusty winds. If it is strong and steady they can compensate. It is the unknown that messes things up for kickers. Rain can go either way with players and defenses. A heavily sloppy field drags everyone down and helps defenses keep the scores down. So it depends but always play your studs. They will find a way to overcome the hardships that others succumb to.

Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 30-year fantasy football veteran who participated in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). He won the Fantasy Index Open in 2013 and 2018.

IAN ALLAN

When you're putting together our projections, we always ignore weather on Wednesday. That's partially because the forecast gets more accurate late in the week, and it also removes the variable of having to remember which teams have been downgraded for weather (and how much). So on Fridays for the final third of the year, we take a look at the weather and downgrade teams where appropriate. It's my feeling that in the majority of cases, the weather ends up being far less of a factor than anticipated. With some of these stadiums, I think, the wind doesn't have get a chance to affect the game as much as you might think (with the grandstands preventing it from being much of a factor).

Allan co-founded Fantasy Football Index in 1987. He is a member of the FSGA Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.

JASON WOOD

This weekend’s results make it clear we probably didn’t weigh the weather enough. Missed extra points, coaches refusing to try field goals, and quarterbacks spraying throws all over the place are reminders that conditions matter. The real issue is magnitude. There have been countless studies on how weather affects football output, and they’re worth reading firsthand. The broad lessons are intuitive. Heavy snow crushes scoring and pushes teams toward the run. Light snow and rain barely move the needle overall, but it’s important to evaluate how specific quarterbacks have performed historically in wet conditions. For wind, which was the real culprit this weekend, the number to watch is 20mph or stronger gusts. When you see that, you should dial down projected passing accuracy and yards per attempt by a meaningful amount.

Wood is Senior Editor at Footballguys.com and has been with the company since its start in 2000. For more than 20 years, Footballguys has provided rankings, projections, and analysis to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.

TOM KESSENICH

I think many fantasy players overrate weather's influence - especially when it comes to snow and rain. I focus primarily on high and gusty winds and then my primary focus there will be mostly on kickers. It will take extreme weather issues (i.e. heavy snow and/or monsoon-like rain conditions) for me to greatly pivot away from strong passing teams. And I want to wait as long as possible while watching all weather and stadium condition updates before making any lineup changes. If I am going to pivot my more likely pivots will be with lower-level players as opposed to "star" type players who I'm more confident will be able to endure whatever the weather brings at them.

Kessenich is the Director of High Stakes Contests for SportsHub Games. He runs the NFFC, NFBC and NFBKC and is a fantasy sports Hall of Fame inductee.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI

It's mostly a tie breaker for me, at best, unless the conditions are extreme. Offensive players know where they are going, defenders do not -- and it takes just one long pass to make your day. For the most part, follow the over-under on each game, that will serve as a reliable reality check as you set your lineups.

Pianowski has been with Yahoo Sports since 2008, covering a variety of sports. On the rare occasions when the computer is turned off, he enjoys word games, poker, music, film, game theory, and a variety of condiments. He lives in suburban Detroit. Pianowski was inducted into the FSWA Hall of Fame in 2021.

ANDY RICHARDSON

I've come around to the idea that wind can be problematic in a couple of cities. Cleveland holding all of its opposing quarterbacks under 200 passing yards at home is not strictly because Myles Garrett is the defensive MVP. Weather conditions there are impacting opposing passing games, making sitting down those players viable, and I think it happens some at MetLife, too (definitely avoid kickers there). But things like rain and snow usually don't bother me, unless we're talking blizzard conditions. I've seen plenty of offense in snow-affected games where it's the defenders who we're doing most of the slipping and sliding, while receivers are making their cuts and going for long touchdowns (a Broncos game a couple of years ago comes to mind). Generally, it's a case by case basis for me, and overreacting can be as costly if not more so than underreacting.

Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He writes a weekly gambling newsletter, Index Bets, during the NFL season and also previews all the games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays.

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