Our annual reminder that eliminated teams sometimes bring as much to the table as those in contention for playoff spots. The Falcons have been decent most of the season, so not a huge surprise they came to play last night.
What this means for the NFC is that the No. 4 seed South champion is going to be a Bucs or Panthers team that's probably 9-8, and one that will get beaten handily at home by an 11-win 5th seed, whoever doesn't win the NFC West most likely. Maybe even a 12-5 Seattle team. I still tend to think it will be the Bucs, who play the Panthers twice in the last three weeks (why the schedule-makers did that is beyond me), but after last night, maybe not.
QUARTERBACKS
I'm not sure anyone is actually starting Baker Mayfield these days, but he was fine. Robbed of an early touchdown on a goal-line pass to Jalen McMillan where somebody Zaprudered it to determine oh no, a fraction of McMillan's butt cheek hit the ground while there was a paper width of space between the ball and the goal line. This is what we have instant replay for people, to make critical rulings like this that take touchdowns away from Mayfield and McMillan and give them to Sean Tucker.
But Mayfield threw a costly wounded duck interception late that helped the Falcons erase a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit, taking the blame afterwards. It was a bad throw, but I'll remark that setting your opponent up at their own 33-yard line from where they embarked on two scoring drives in 8 minutes isn't quite the same as handing them the game. But it was a bad pick, maybe the Bucs would have gone down and scored themselves, and blame is fine. But there was a lot to go around.
Kirk Cousins, well, I probably have been too negative on him this year. The AP story recapping the game led with "Maybe Cousins should have been starting all along," which was kind of unnecessarily mean. But both at the time and nearly two years later, Atlanta's top-10 pick of Michael Penix made very little sense. The Falcons used a very high pick on a quarterback who may not be the answer, and they compounded it by giving up next year's first-rounder on draft day this year, which based on Atlanta's record might be another top-10 pick, going to one of this year's best teams, the Rams. Back to Cousins, some clutch drives and throws and he might have a nice game against next week, too (at Arizona). Particularly impressive since he's working with the ugliest wide receiver corps in the league right now.
RUNNING BACKS
Bijan Robinson opened the fantasy playoffs doing what people drafted him in the top 3 for, with 175 total yards and a touchdown. A shame it's wasted on a team that doesn't look likely to be going to the playoffs anytime in the next few years, but maybe they'll make some big free agent signings or select some nice mid-round picks. My bet of the under on Tyler Allgeier hit, he played a total of 12 snaps and usually when he was on the field Robinson was lined up as a wide receiver and they threw it to him. Allgeier might get more run against Arizona next week, although Atlanta might not be playing as hard with no spoiler angle.
Like most who had Bucky Irving I started him, and he had a nice start with an 11-yard run and 11-yard reception to open the game. From that point forward he carried 15 times for 49 yards, didn't catch a pass, and got vultured at the goal line on a 1-yard touchdown by Sean Tucker. Annoying, but that's what the Bucs are doing for some reason. At least they didn't give it to Vita Vea, although they did have him in the game for that offensive snap. Tucker averages 5 offensive touches making it hard to actually use the guy but has scored 6 touchdowns.
This brings us to Rachaad White, who is really good in pass protection, sadly there's no fantasy points available for that. He played nearly half the snaps but saw the ball just twice: a 20-yard run on the second possession and a 6-yard catch (his only target) right before the fourth-quarter interception.
WIDE RECEIVERS
I agonized over whether to start Emeka Egbuka in a playoff game. On the one hand, he's done essentially nothing for half the season, and the Bucs had a lot of injured wideouts back healthy last night. On the other hand, it occurred to me that most of Egbuka's best games were when Mike Evans was playing, so maybe he'd be better with a more significant player across the field from him. Ultimately, I started Egbuka, getting 8-10 points. I'm OK with it; would have liked more obviously, but 4 for 64 on 7 targets did happen to be his best game in more than a month. Had one of those receptions ended up in the end zone (and he did have a target near the goal line early on), I'd have been happy. Evans of course returned and was the No. 1, 6 for 132 on 12 targets. They also tried an end-zone fade right before the Tucker touchdown. I think you're starting Evans the rest of the way if you stashed him or were able to pick him up.
As for Tampa's other wideouts, Chris Godwin caught a touchdown and a 2-point conversion, while Jalen McMillan got robbed on that instant replay minutiae. But McMillan can't be used as the No. 4, and if you're starting Godwin or Egbuka, you're just hopeful they finish with the better numbers of the two. A little bit crowded (and more so if Cade Otton is back next week).
I don't think we need to say much about Atlanta's wide receivers. Darnell Mooney has had an awful season. Whether the banged-up No. 2 or the healthy No. 1, few starting wide receivers have made less impact. Mooney catching 3 for 35 (a pretty typical stat line for him this year, actually better than most games) on a night his quarterback threw for 373 says all you need to know. David Sills had a leaping 21-yard grab to convert a 4th and 14 on the game-winning field goal drive. Great route and throw by Cousins. That makes up for a critical drop on a possible touchdown Sills had earlier. Nice game last night but Sills started the last two weeks with Drake London out and totaled 2 catches for 15 yards on 8 targets. Please do not pick up Sills and start him next week, even if London is out again (which he probably will be, although who knows). Atlanta needs help at wide receiver, too bad they don't have a first-round pick next year.
TIGHT ENDS
Uh yeah so monster game for Kyle Pitts. My sympathies if you were facing him in a playoff game, as some certainly were. Did Tampa Bay not get the memo that Drake London was out and Pitts was literally the only noteworthy receiver (aside from Bijan) who needed to be accounted for? Here's a fun factoid: Pitts' 3 touchdowns last night was more than he'd averaged (2.5) in the first four seasons of his career.
I don't know if we give Pitts credit for having a big game or rip the guy for taking 75 games to have one like that, or rip the coaching staff for just now, in Year 5, saying "Hey! Let's throw a bunch of passes to the guy we made the earliest selection as his position in the history of the NFL!" The question becomes, does last night's performance mean Pitts will be getting a huge contract from Atlanta, or one of the NFL's 31 other teams, who will surely be taking note of it.
Bucs didn't have Otton, and he probably wouldn't have done much with all the wide receivers back. Devin Culp caught a touchdown, on his only target; Payne Durham played twice as much but didn't have a pass thrown his way.
MISCELLANEOUS
Both kickers made their clutch kicks. Zane Gonzalez also converted an earlier one, but it was taken off the board with the Bucs being flagged for jumping offside on the 4th-and-4 field goal, looked like the guy got back in time, but whatever. Important later of course, and it resulted in one of Pitts' touchdowns.
Carolina's game at New Orleans is huge. Let's say for the sake of discussion the Bucs and Panthers split their two games. Carolina's other game is against Seattle while Tampa Bay's is at Miami, so the Panthers might really need this one game lead. As noted earlier, the South winner seems pretty likely to be one and done in the playoffs against a team that has 3-4 more wins than they do, but as last night proved, underdogs do surprise at times.