We've got a Super Bowl, and it will be a big week for talking to and about Marshawn Lynch, Pete Carroll and good and bad coaching decisions. There was some of that yesterday, too, during a pair of hard-fought, mostly entertaining games.
New England 10, Denver 7. When I was looking at the weather for this game earlier in the week, seemed like it would be a-OK. Sunny, not too cold for this time of year in Denver, not much wind. And that was spot-on into the third quarter. But if you got up to grab another cool beverage and took a few minutes, you came back to find a game where Patriots players in their white uniforms were invisible and nobody had any idea what yardline the ball was on. It was a blizzard where it seemed pretty clear that a 10-7 lead may as well have been 20, and that's about how things turned out. The only comforting reliability was that Tony Romo would be using the term chess match, which I believe there should be drinking games built around.
Even without knowing the weather that was coming, I and I suspect most people watching agreed that early on, with a chance to go up 10-0, Denver should have kicked a short field goal. But the analytics said to go for it on 4th and 1, I guess, so they did and weren't close. A first-quarter decision did not decide the game, but I think Sean Payton forgot he was playing with a backup quarterback for a minute.
Shortly after that was the big play, an incomplete pass/fumble that gifted a Patriots offense that had been going nowhere (it was like people forgot that Drake Maye hadn't played in an NFL game this big, either, and that Denver's defense was also pretty good) the tying touchdown. On this play we had exactly the kind of clown show that's frustrated fans about officiating all postseason/year/decade. One ref saw one thing, another saw another, there was a flag and a quick whistle and a ruling and a reversal and the announcers had no idea what was going on and were talking about what a break the penalty was for Denver while on the field we saw the Patriots offense lining up to score an easy touchdown. I think the right call was ultimately made (Jarrett Stidham made a habit of holding the ball too long, he could easily have been involved in 2-3 other sack/lost fumble type plays), but it was an awful process to get there.
Props to Stidham for completing the perfect throw to Marvin Mims and the touchdown to Courtland Sutton. After that, he was off-target, late, and held the ball too long, and also under heavy pressure, I don't mean to take anything away from the Patriots defense, which played great. But the rest of the game pretty much highlighted why Payton should have taken the early field goal. As for the late miss, I saw something this morning with Lutz saying they might have lined up the hold a yard short of where they should have, factoring into the partial block, I don't know. I tend to think if the field goal had been good New England would have got in position for the winning points themselves, those Maye scrambles were successful all game. But I guess we'll never know.
Five more random thoughts from the game: remember when Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson were a tandem? The rookie played 4 snaps. ... Pat Bryant left with a hamstring injury on the opening drive. Not gonna pick on a guy who suffered a concussion, that can happen to anyone at anytime. But in the last 6-8 weeks Bryant suffered 2 concussions and left games with 2 other injuries. ... RJ Harvey had some good runs yesterday and last week, but looks pretty clear he belongs in a tandem rather than as a No. 1. ... This leads into a general statement about the Broncos offense: it's hilarious that Bo Nix caught heat at times this season. He's literally the only offensive skill player that isn't in need of an upgrade. Team needs to be better at RB, WR, and TE, no question. ... As for the Patriots, hats off to Mike Vrabel. They certainly had some schedule and opposing injury breaks along the way, but they also did enough to get past three good defenses in the playoffs.
Seattle 31, L.A. Rams 27. This was an epic game, like the game these teams played a few weeks back really. Like the AFC one, it was greatly impacted by an early turnover -- there was still plenty of time left, and the Rams did get down near the end zone for a potential winning score. But after Xavier Smith botched a punt return, giving Seattle a two-score lead, the Rams were in catchup mode for the rest of the game. Matthew Stafford was great, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both did their things, and L.A. was a late drop and a couple of near-misses away from winning anyway. But that turnover was huge (and would have been even huger if not for a taunting penalty on Seattle that kept the Rams in it).
Sam Darnold played great. Made all the throws, led some big drives, even had a key scramble (something he hasn't done much this year). Throwing for 346 yards and 3 TDs, clearly the oblique injury wasn't bothering him. With Stafford also throwing for 374 and 3, it was a good old-fashioned quarterback shootout. Neither ground game did much. Weird that Seattle's defense shut every other offense down for most of the season but didn't have many answers for Sean McVay. But they had enough.
On the Rams' final, failed drive (that ended short of the end zone, not the last few desperate seconds), Colby Parkinson dropped a ball that might have gone for a touchdown (might have; there was a defender there) and then the last two incompletions went to Terrance Ferguson and Konata Mumpfield; probably not drawn up that way, you'd think they'd rather be going to Nacua or Adams. I don't have a 360-view to say what they could/should have done differently, but I imagine it will keep McVay and Stafford up nights.
What a game and season for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Best was one of the only two incompletions thrown his way, a ball he caught at the back of the end zone but couldn't get his feet down (since it was 5 feet over his head and Darnold was probably just throwing it away). Who'da thunk dealing away DK Metcalf would work out so well for Seattle.
As for the Rams, questions next summer will be similar to this summer. Can they keep Stafford especially and Puka healthy? Davante too I guess. But also, their defense really fell off the second half of the season. Can't win shootouts all the time, and in fact they lost several of them late (with a near-miss against Carolina two weeks ago and maybe Chicago, if DJ Moore runs a better overtime route). So that's where they'll need to figure some things out.
So a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl. I see the opening spread has Seattle favored by 4.5 or so. If I'm betting right now, I'm giving the points. But as we look at it closely over the next couple of weeks, maybe I'll change my mind.