Before week 1, I wrote a column called "Keep It Simple," which encouraged you not to overthink things when the season starts. You know who your starters are, and it doesn't make sense to get cute with lineup decisions when you have the whole season in front of you.
But now, with every week bringing an elimination or championship game, get as cute as you want. It's now or never, and nothing matters except accumulating points this coming weekend. And if that means making unusual lineup decisions, so be it. Do whatever you want, as long as you can live with the consequences.
If you have a regular starter, but you have a better feeling about a backup, feel free to put the backup in. As long as it's based on a sensible rationale, and you truly feel like one player has better opportunities this week, go for it. But that decision means really looking at the information in front of you. Has the starter struggled in tough situations? Has the backup taken full advantage of good opportunities? Are you just making moves to make them, or trying to "block" an opponent's quarterback with your receiver, or vice-versa? It's not good enough to just imagine a bad scenario for your starter, or a great one for another guy. You have to make objective decisions, even if they differ from your season-long strategy.
A couple years ago, I had a great kicker. The kind you leave in the lineup no matter what and even keep them during their bye week. He was a real set-it-and-forget-it type of player. But I really didn't like his playoff matchup, and I definitely liked the potential for another guy better. I factored in weather, expected points scored, and the times when the other guy shined during the year. It just made sense to make the change. So I made it.
And guess what? It worked out. I would have lost if I hadn't made the change, and I went on to win the title that year. I made the call I wanted to make, even though it would have been easier just to leave the same guy in the lineup. To counter that example, just last week I benched Lamb for Higgins. I just had a feeling it was the right move, and I was incorrect. Higgins was good enough to mask the bad call, but it still was the wrong decision.
But here's the thing: If either move had cost me the game, I would have been fine with it. I wouldn't have lamented the decision, even if I didn’t like the outcome. In those cases it made sense (to me) to switch a guy out, and I did it. If it had burned me, I would have accepted the results, knowing it made good sense at the time. I'm not saying I would have been happy losing, but I wouldn't have lingering regret.
And for me, that's the final point in making a decision. If things go the other way, and you should have let things be, would you feel worse knowing you cost yourself a victory? If you're not that sure about it, then it might be better to leave things as they are. Making a change just to feel like you're "doing something" is a recipe for disaster. But if it makes sense to you, and doing nothing seems wrong, then feel free to switch someone out for a backup. You don't want to hold yourself back because things are already in place. Just make sure you can accept the consequences if it costs you. If you'd still feel good about the thought process despite losing, go for it.
Of course, sometimes you can make the "right" decision, and it still turns out wrong. You might get punished for following through with your gut. That's okay. You know what's not okay? Switching out players just so you feel like a “real” manager, or leaving someone in despite liking someone better, and losing because you were too timid to make a bold move. Right now, all that matters is scoring more points than your opponent. It doesn't matter who scores the points, or how the points are distributed. Remember, it's your team. Manage it the way you want. Good luck this week.
Do you make major changes in the fantasy playoffs, or do you tend to leave the starters in the lineup even if you like someone better? Have you ever been burned (or saved) by subbing in a backup for a playoff game? Share your thoughts below.