Until very recently, I was convinced quarterbacks were all that really mattered in the NFL. Tom Brady goes from New England to Tampa...instant Super Bowl. The Vikings went from potential top playoff seed to also-ran in one season, mostly because Sam Darnold took his talents out west to Seattle. Where would the Bills be without Josh Allen? What could possibly be more important than the QB?
Now I'm starting to think it might be the head coach, and that possibility has important ramifications for fantasy managers.
The Broncos were a couple of missed field goals (and some controversial play calling) away from reaching the Super Bowl with Jarrett Stidham, suggesting Sean Payton might be most important to the team's success. Jim Harbaugh is 2-0 making the playoffs with the Chargers (albeit 0-2 in actual playoff games). And is anybody more important to their team's sudden success than Mike Vrabel? With all the media attention concerning vacancies, the coaching carousel is becoming the most important offseason event. The draft is fun and free agency is exciting, but maybe it only comes together when the head coach you want is in place. The New York Giants will probably find out if that’s true in 2026.
I think coaches are so important that we'll have to give it more weight on draft day than ever before. I know it's only January, but I have serious concerns about Josh Allen and James Cook. Their comfortable system is about to be shaken up, and we really don't know how they'll react or how they'll be used. Same with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. And that's just the beginning. Will the new Arizona coach want to offense to go through Trey McBride? Will Kevin Stefanski really want Bijan Robinson to catch nearly 80 passes on his way to another 350+ touches?
I think many fantasy managers might have underestimated the impact of Liam Coen on Brian Thomas last season. Thomas didn't do himself any favors in 2025, but Coen's strategy didn't involve feeding Thomas at all costs. Or any costs, really. As a result, he lost nearly 40 receptions, more than 500 yards and eight touchdowns off his rookie total. How many fantasy teams spent a high pick for those mediocre numbers (I seriously considered it at one point), and will history repeat itself somewhere else? Will McBride keep his spot as a top target for whoever is throwing the ball for the Cardinals? Who knows?
Of course, philosophical changes can create new fantasy stars, like Dan Campbell has done in Detroit. Coordinators can have that impact, too. One coach giveth, and another taketh away. But fantasy managers hate uncertainty, and the new regimes on the sidelines will create plenty of questions that really can't be answered before September. That's good for bad teams, but maybe bad for some good teams. And what group did your best players come from on draft day?
Across the field from Vrabel, the Seahawks wouldn't be in the Super Bowl if Pete Carroll was still there. The head coach has a bigger impact on a team's success than ever before. Remember when Barry Switzer earned a ring by watching Jimmy Johnson's team play back in the 90s? I'm not sure that would happen today. New coaches can be the necessary ingredient to winning a title, and that means they can be the same for fantasy teams. Their presence can lift players, or sink them. And we'll have months to ponder which will be the case for our dynasty, keeper and redraft teams.
What coaching change will have the most positive fantasy impact on the team’s players? Which ones might improve the team but have a negative fantasy impact? What team’s players become more valuable strictly due to a coaching change? Share your thoughts below.