If you analyze stats after a game is over (doesn't every fantasy manager do that?) you'll see a word becoming more common when you look at how drives ended: Downs. A team went for it on fourth-and-whatever and came up short. Teams are going for it more often than ever, and by a wide margin compared to several years ago. That means some drives that could have ended in points end up giving the other team the ball instead. And in close playoff games it can be the difference between moving on and going home.
Yes, I understand why teams do it: The percentages say they're likely to make it in many circumstances. And mentally, breaking a defense that way demoralizes them while giving your team a boost. It shows that the coaches trust the offense and can lead to even more points. Over time it's a smart move, so it makes sense.
But here's the thing: I think maybe teams are doing it too much. They're turning down easy points and turning the ball over. Sometimes they even turn it over on their side of the field. We saw a lot of one-score games this past weekend, and in each of them a team risked a lot for a chance to keep a drive going.
The Panthers missed fourth down on their very first possession and handed the Rams the ball in their territory. LA scored four plays later. In the same half the Rams passed on an easy field goal attempt and missed fourth down. The Panthers were in the end zone five plays later. In a three-point game with your season on the line, that's a lot of risk to take. Carolina ended up losing.
The Bears did the same thing, though one of those made sense. Down 21-3 at the Packers' 37? Sure. You need some momentum. But down 14-3 and facing fourth down at your own 32? No. You're just digging yourself a hole. Chicago ended up winning anyway, but that call didn't make it any easier for them.
The Jaguars went for it deep in the Bills’ red zone. They didn't convert and didn't win a three-point game. The Eagles also missed one near midfield that gave the 49ers great field position. It feels like teams are willing to give up easy points or field position to take a chance to keep a drive going, even when it isn't necessary.
To be fair, easy points aren't guaranteed points. Both the 49ers and Eagles missed extra points in their playoff game, and the Steelers wouldn't have been in the playoffs at all if not for a missed field goal in week 18. And the Eagles did score a touchdown on one of their attempts when a field goal would have been the safer option and given them a lead. So while I get the philosophy of going for it some of the time, we're seeing it at a historic rate and I think it hurts teams unnecessarily.
Don't get me wrong: As a fantasy manager, I love it. More touchdown attempts, more chances to keep a drive going, and more stats for the offense. And if they miss, the other offense gets a boost. It's great for us. And as a fan, it keeps things exciting. You see more plays that have a lot on the line.
But strategically, I think it's costing teams dearly by overdoing it. And I still think the Lions threw away a spot in the Super Bowl a couple years ago when they got too cute with fourth downs in the championship game against San Francisco. I think going for it in your own territory should be reserved for desperate situations. And I think in low-scoring games, you take the high-percentage points when you have a chance at them. But I fully expect the trend to continue into next week and beyond. And if it costs NFL teams a shot at a title, at least it won't cost my fantasy team. Good luck in your fantasy games this week.
How do you feel about more fourth-down decisions to go for it? Do you trust the odds, or do you think it's too risky? Has it ever helped or hurt your favorite team? Share your thoughts below.