Bucky Irving had the big rookie season, putting up 1,514 combined yards, with 8 TDs. But nobody should be heading into the 2025 season with much of an expectation that a running back selected in that area of the draft will be putting up those kind of numbers.
It just doesn’t happen all that often. When running backs are still around in the fourth round, those guys are far more likely to play depth-type roles, particularly in their first season.
In the case of Irving, he landed in the perfect storm of being able to outplay holdover Rachaad White while the Bucs also turned to more of a run-oriented offense (improving from 32nd to 4th in rushing).
When the big-picture numbers are trotted out, it becomes apparent just how high the degree of difficulty is when investing in running backs selected in the fourth round.
In the last 10 years, 44 running backs have been selected in the fourth round. Only one of those backs (Irving) ran for over 1,000 yards. Only one other (Dameon Pierce) ran for more than 640.
Including receiving, Irving was the 15th-best back in PPR formats last year. But only seven other backs (of those 44) put up top-30 stats (all ranked between 25th and 30th).
Only seven of those 44 backs were the most productive running backs on their own teams (and they’re tagged with black dots in the chart below). Fifteen others were the 2nd-best backs on their own teams, meaning that half of those 44 weren’t even one of the top 2 backs on their own teams.
RUNNING BACKS SELECTED IN THE FOURTH ROUND | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rush | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
2024 | Bucky Irving, T.B. | 1,122 | 392 | 1,514 | 8 | 246.4 | 15 |
2022 | • Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 939 | 165 | 1,104 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
2018 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 314 | 425 | 739 | 4 | 160.9 | 28 |
2021 | • Michael Carter, NYJ | 639 | 325 | 964 | 4 | 156.4 | 29 |
2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 370 | 353 | 723 | 4 | 154.4 | 28 |
2015 | • Javorius Allen, Balt. | 514 | 353 | 867 | 3 | 149.7 | 29 |
2016 | • Devontae Booker, Den. | 612 | 265 | 877 | 5 | 148.7 | 29 |
2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 537 | 279 | 816 | 7 | 147.6 | 30 |
2017 | • Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 556 | 262 | 818 | 6 | 142.8 | 34 |
2021 | • Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 612 | 174 | 786 | 6 | 139.6 | 36 |
2021 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 606 | 123 | 729 | 5 | 116.9 | 47 |
2024 | Ray Davis, Buff. | 442 | 189 | 631 | 6 | 116.1 | 41 |
2017 | Samaje Perine, Was. | 603 | 182 | 785 | 2 | 112.5 | 43 |
2017 | Wayne Gallman, NYG | 476 | 193 | 669 | 1 | 106.9 | 46 |
2017 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 358 | 225 | 583 | 4 | 103.3 | 48 |
2016 | Kenneth Dixon, Balt. | 382 | 162 | 544 | 3 | 102.4 | 47 |
2023 | Roschon Johnson, Chi. | 352 | 209 | 561 | 2 | 102.1 | 47 |
2018 | Ito Smith, Atl. | 315 | 152 | 467 | 4 | 97.7 | 50 |
2024 | Isaac Guerendo, S.F. | 420 | 152 | 572 | 4 | 96.2 | 47 |
2019 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 455 | 107 | 562 | 3 | 91.2 | 53 |
2020 | Joshua Kelley, LAC | 354 | 148 | 502 | 2 | 85.2 | 58 |
2024 | Braelon Allen, NYJ | 334 | 148 | 482 | 3 | 85.2 | 51 |
2018 | Chase Edmonds, Ari. | 208 | 103 | 311 | 2 | 63.1 | 72 |
2019 | Benny Snell, Pitt. | 426 | 23 | 449 | 2 | 59.9 | 67 |
2020 | DeeJay Dallas, Sea. | 108 | 111 | 219 | 3 | 56.9 | 73 |
2019 | Justice Hill, Balt. | 225 | 70 | 295 | 2 | 49.5 | 77 |
2018 | Kalen Ballage, Mia. | 191 | 56 | 247 | 1 | 39.7 | 86 |
2024 | Hassan Haskins, LAC | 89 | 49 | 138 | 3 | 34.8 | 80 |
2024 | Jaylen Wright, Mia. | 249 | 8 | 257 | 0 | 28.7 | 91 |
2022 | Pierre Strong, N.E. | 100 | 42 | 142 | 1 | 27.2 | 94 |
2022 | Hassan Haskins, Ten. | 93 | 57 | 150 | 0 | 26.0 | 96 |
2021 | Kene Nwangwu, Min. | 61 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 23.0 | 105 |
2020 | Anthony McFarland, Pitt. | 113 | 54 | 167 | 0 | 22.7 | 102 |
2015 | Jalston Fowler, Ten. | 13 | 44 | 57 | 2 | 22.7 | 110 |
2015 | Mike Davis, S.F. | 58 | 38 | 96 | 0 | 16.6 | 118 |
2024 | Will Shipley, Phil. | 82 | 35 | 117 | 0 | 15.7 | 104 |
2018 | Mark Walton, Cin. | 34 | 41 | 75 | 0 | 12.5 | 109 |
2022 | Isaiah Spiller, LAC | 41 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 | 126 |
2024 | Sione Vaki, Det. | 14 | 37 | 51 | 0 | 8.1 | 112 |
2022 | Zamir White, L.V. | 70 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 7.0 | 132 |
2016 | Tyler Ervin, Hou. | 3 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 5.1 | 140 |
2017 | Joe Williams, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2019 | Bryce Love, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2017 | Donnel Pumphrey, Phil. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
For fantasy purposes, I think this means expectations should be modest. There will be a fourth-round back from time to time that catches your eye. Maybe you liked what he did in college. Or even better, he seems to be getting some traction in the preseason.
But in general, they should be selected with speculative, luxury-type picks – thinking that maybe they’ll develop into something. Maybe they go the Isaac Guerendo route, with a couple of late-season starts. But it’s not really realistic to select them with the intention of counting on them to be consistent contributors.
—Ian Allan