I will be interested to see what the 49ers do at running back in the offseason. Christian McCaffrey has been great for a lot of years, but he’ll also be 30 in June.
McCaffrey in the just-completed season wasn’t the uber-elite difference maker he’s been in the past. He’s still a valuable weapon in the passing game; he caught 102 passes for 924 yards, with 7 TDs. But strictly as a runner, McCaffrey has lost some speed, quickness and power.
McCaffrey averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in each of the team’s playoff games. He averaged 3.3 or less, in fact, in 12 of his 19 games. He closed the regular season at 3.9, which is getting closer to respectable, but his better games tended to come against lesser opponents and run defenses. McCaffrey back in 2023 averaged a yard and a half more per carry.
With his value as a pass catcher, I don’t think the 49ers will be considering dumping him. According to the contract data at Spotrac, McCaffrey will count only $10.8 million against the cap next year, but would count $18.2 if they released him. He’s got a base salary of $1.3 million, with a $16.8 million base coming up in 2027.
But nor do I see McCaffrey getting back to being the kind of monster he’s been in the past. That’s just not the way things tend to play out at this position. Time marches on.
Below see the list of the last 15 running backs who were 29-year-olds who ran for over 1,000 yards but averaged under 4 yards per carry. Then look at how those same backs did as 30-year-olds. I see James Stewart sneak up to 4.8 per carry for the Lions and Thomas Jones at 4.5 for the Jets. But mostly, I see continued mediocrity.
| 29-YEAR-OLDS AVERAGING UNDER 4 PER CARRY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1989 | Roger Craig, S.F. | 16 | 271 | 1054 | 3.9 | 6 |
| 1991 | Earnest Byner, Was. | 16 | 274 | 1048 | 3.8 | 5 |
| 1995 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 14 | 267 | 1005 | 3.8 | 6 |
| 1996 | Anthony Johnson, Car. | 16 | 300 | 1120 | 3.7 | 6 |
| 1998 | Ricky Watters, Sea. | 16 | 319 | 1239 | 3.9 | 9 |
| 1999 | Dorsey Levens, G.B. | 14 | 279 | 1034 | 3.7 | 9 |
| 2000 | James Stewart, Det. | 16 | 339 | 1184 | 3.5 | 10 |
| 2002 | Eddie George, Ten. | 16 | 343 | 1165 | 3.4 | 12 |
| 2007 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 16 | 324 | 1222 | 3.8 | 7 |
| 2007 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 16 | 310 | 1119 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 292 | 1110 | 3.8 | 11 |
| 2008 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 16 | 279 | 1002 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 15 | 273 | 1067 | 3.9 | 6 |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 16 | 266 | 1038 | 3.9 | 6 |
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 17 | 311 | 1202 | 3.9 | 10 |
| SAME BACKS AS 30-YEAR-OLDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1990 | Roger Craig, S.F. | 11 | 141 | 439 | 3.1 | 1 |
| 1992 | Earnest Byner, Was. | 16 | 262 | 998 | 3.8 | 6 |
| 1996 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 15 | 281 | 1033 | 3.7 | 8 |
| 1997 | Anthony Johnson, Car. | 16 | 97 | 358 | 3.7 | 0 |
| 1999 | Ricky Watters, Sea. | 16 | 325 | 1210 | 3.7 | 5 |
| 2000 | Dorsey Levens, G.B. | 5 | 77 | 224 | 2.9 | 3 |
| 2001 | • James Stewart, Det. | 11 | 143 | 685 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 2003 | Eddie George, Ten. | 16 | 312 | 1031 | 3.3 | 5 |
| 2008 | • Thomas Jones, NYJ | 16 | 290 | 1312 | 4.5 | 13 |
| 2008 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 13 | 133 | 514 | 3.9 | 3 |
| 2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 14 | 223 | 730 | 3.3 | 12 |
| 2009 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 9 | 143 | 500 | 3.5 | 0 |
| 2012 | Cedric Benson, G.B. | 5 | 71 | 248 | 3.5 | 1 |
| 2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 13 | 218 | 898 | 4.1 | 4 |
| 2026 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
I expect the 49ers will be putting a viable second option in place. Brian Robinson was their No. 2 back in the just-completed season, averaging almost a half yard more per carry than McCaffrey. He’s a little bigger, with more ability to thump. But he’s also headed for free agency, so he would need to be re-signed. And in the passing game, he’s the exact opposite of McCaffrey – a complete liability.
Jordan James came off the bench and popped a few runs on Saturday. Those were his first carries as a pro. I wonder where he might fit in. In a typical dynasty league (with perhaps 80 running backs rostered) I would think James should be stashed away somewhere, with a decent chance that he comes a starter at some point in 2026, in Kyle Shanahan’s runner-friendly offense. If they really like James, that will affect how much they’re willing to pay for Robinson.
Isaac Guerendo is a physical freak who had a few nice runs as a riijue, but they seem to have soured on him. He didn’t have any carries in the regular season. He’s got two years left on his rookie contract, but I’m not confident he’ll be on their roster in 2026.
—Ian Allan