Since I wrote the Broncos preview back on Wednesday, events with J.K. Dobbins made it a little out of date. Dobbins was practicing on a limited basis, suggesting he might return, but in fact he's been ruled out.
Dobbins' absence means RJ Harvey will start and serve as the Broncos' lead running back, making him look better as a fantasy option. Better, but not exactly the slam dunk you might expect.
Harvey this year played 10 games with Dobbins in the lineup and 8 games with Dobbins sidelined (including last week's playoff game). Definitely more appealing as a starter, but still didn't really knock it out of the park.
In Standard scoring systems, it was the difference between 7.5 points per week and 11.6. In PPR, you were getting 10 points per week with Dobbins healthy, and 15 points per week with Dobbins out hurt. It's a notable difference, of course; better as a starter. But not enough to get him ahead of Kenneth Walker or Kyren Williams, and it can be debated whether you'd want to use him over Rhamondre Stevenson (I say no, particularly with the heavy usage Stevenson has had lately). Williams averaged 16 PPR points during the season, Stevenson averaged 13 (and more than that in the two playoff games) and Walker is now more of a full-time guy with Zach Charbonnet out for the year).
The two game logs below show Harvey with Dobbins healthy, and Harvey post-Dobbins. Points are PPR. Harvey scored 15-plus points seven times this year; four after Dobbins got hurt, three with Dobbins as the main back. He scored 6 touchdowns in 10 games with Dobbins and also in eight games without him.
| HARVEY (WITH DOBBINS) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Run | No | Rec | TD | Pts |
| Ten. | 70 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7.9 |
| at Ind. | 8 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3.4 |
| at LAC | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4.6 |
| Cin. | 58 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 19.8 |
| at Phi. | 12 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6.0 |
| at NYJ | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 6.5 |
| NYG | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7.2 |
| Dal. | 46 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 24.1 |
| at Hou. | 5 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 16.6 |
| L.V. | 9 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Average: | 21 | 2.5 | 18 | 0.6 | 10.0 |
| HARVEY (WITHOUT DOBBINS) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Run | No | Rec | TD | Pts |
| K.C. | 30 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| at Was. | 35 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 21.2 |
| at L.V. | 75 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 22.0 |
| G.B. | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Jac. | 50 | 4 | 71 | 1 | 22.1 |
| at K.C. | 43 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 18.6 |
| LAC | 28 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Buf. | 20 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 11.6 |
| Average: | 43 | 3.4 | 28 | 0.75 | 15.0 |
I'm using Harvey in a lineup, but I think he's still the 4th-best option playing this week. (This is without even getting into the fact that New England ranked 6th in run defense, and was even better with tackle Milton Williams healthy, which he currently is.) You're looking for receiving work from Harvey, not really counting on good rushing numbers.
--Andy Richardson