I'm a fan of the Saints this year. I think Tyler Shough is underrated and ready for a Year 2 step up, and that the NFC South is wide open. But I'm not quite sold on Travis Etienne.
The Saints signed him to a contract averaging nearly $12 million a season, which is top-10 money for a running back, so clearly they believe in him. But I'm not entirely convinced he'll be a full-time back.
For now, Alvin Kamara is still around. Maybe that will change, but we're into July so the cap ramifications of moving on have been set for a while now. There's been nothing in the way of trade talk, so very possible he's on the roster and taking at least some of the passing down chances.
And I wonder if the Saints might try another back around the goal line. They've got options (Devin Neal, Kendre Miller and a couple of other lesser lights), and Etienne hasn't been effective in those situations.
Over the past three years, he's converted fewer than half of his opportunities when a yard is needed to either score or pick up a first down (16 of 34). That's last among the 39 running backs with at least 20 such carries. Kamara (15 of 25, 60 percent) has been better.
| RBS IN SHORT-YARDAGE, 2023-2025 (20+ ATT) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 51 | 63 | 81.0% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 61 | 76 | 80.3% |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 29 | 38 | 76.3% |
| Gus Edwards | 19 | 25 | 76.0% |
| Chase Brown, Cin. | 19 | 26 | 73.1% |
| Rachaad White, T.B. | 32 | 44 | 72.7% |
| Tony Pollard, Ten. | 24 | 33 | 72.7% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 18 | 25 | 72.0% |
| Rico Dowdle, Car. | 18 | 25 | 72.0% |
| D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 19 | 27 | 70.4% |
| Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 19 | 27 | 70.4% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 44 | 63 | 69.8% |
| Devin Singletary, NYG | 16 | 23 | 69.6% |
| Zack Moss | 16 | 23 | 69.6% |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 33 | 48 | 68.8% |
| Derrick Henry, Balt. | 39 | 57 | 68.4% |
| Tank Bigsby, Phi. | 19 | 28 | 67.9% |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 34 | 51 | 66.7% |
| Quinshon Judkins, Cle. | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| Najee Harris, LAC | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| Brian Robinson, S.F. | 24 | 37 | 64.9% |
| Javonte Williams, Dall. | 22 | 34 | 64.7% |
| Breece Hall, NYJ | 20 | 31 | 64.5% |
| James Conner, Ari. | 20 | 31 | 64.5% |
| Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 18 | 28 | 64.3% |
| Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 29 | 46 | 63.0% |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 27 | 43 | 62.8% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 25 | 40 | 62.5% |
| Austin Ekeler, Was. | 17 | 28 | 60.7% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 25 | 60.0% |
| Joe Mixon | 22 | 37 | 59.5% |
| Aaron Jones, Min. | 19 | 32 | 59.4% |
| Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 30 | 53 | 56.6% |
| Chris Rodriguez, Was. | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
| Saquon Barkley, Phi. | 17 | 32 | 53.1% |
| Jordan Mason, Min. | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 16 | 34 | 47.1% |
Numbers like that aren't all on the player himself. Offensive scheme, blocking, etc. And a couple of great backs (Barkley, Jacobs) show up unfavorably in the table.
But it must at least be considered that Etienne will lose some chances in that area, either to Kamara or somebody else. At least Taysom Hill probably won't be back, so there's that.
In general, I think Etienne will be selected before I'm willing to take the plunge. There are other backs being drafted in that area who I like a little more.
--Andy Richardson
