I am a Lucas Carneiro fan. He’s the kicker for Ole Miss who’s come up huge in last two weeks in the college playoffs. He looks like he’s better than the vast majority of NFL kickers right now.
Carneiro against Georgia broke the Sugar Bowl record for longest field goal twice in the first quarter, with 55- and 56-yarders. Then he won the game with a 47-yarder in the final seconds. Pressure kicks, as we were reminded on Sunday night, are a little different.
And Carneiro last night stood out again, with 4 field goals, including a 58-yarder. He also missed a 51-yarder, but it doinked off almost the top of the left upright. This guy can really bang it. His long kicks the last two weeks look like they might have been good from 70.
They indicated last night during the broadcast that Carneiro intends to return to Ole Miss. But as high as his value is right now, I wonder if he might change his mind. Certainly, there would be teams interested in his services.
To me, Carneiro in general looks better than any of the 10 kickers who’ve been drafted in the last five years. He’s made 91 percent of his field goals the last two years at Western Kentucky and Ole Miss, including 11 of 13 from 50-plus. His long so far is 58 yards, but I don’t think there’s any question that there are going to be kicks from 65-plus in his future.
| DRAFTED KICKERS SINCE 2021 (last 2 college yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | XP-A | FG-A | 50+ | Long | Pts |
| 2021 | Evan McPherson, Cin. | 5 | 99-100 | 34-41 | 5-8 | 55 | 201 |
| 2022 | Cade York, Cle. | 4 | 75-75 | 33-39 | 11-14 | 57 | 174 |
| 2023 | Jake Moody, S.F. | 3 | 116-116 | 52-60 | 4-8 | 59 | 272 |
| 2023 | Chad Ryland, N.E. | 4 | 86-87 | 38-45 | 5-8 | 55 | 200 |
| 2023 | Anders Carlson, G.B. | 6 | 57-58 | 26-38 | 0-4 | 46 | 135 |
| 2024 | Will Reichard, Min. | 6 | 119-119 | 44-51 | 8-10 | 52 | 251 |
| 2024 | Joshua Karty, Rams | 6 | 45-46 | 41-45 | 7-10 | 61 | 168 |
| 2024 | Cam Little, Jac. | 6 | 83-83 | 33-40 | 6-8 | 56 | 182 |
| 2025 | Andres Borregales, N.E. | 6 | 106-107 | 40-45 | 6-8 | 56 | 226 |
| 2025 | Tyler Loop, Bal. | 6 | 76-78 | 37-47 | 8-13 | 62 | 187 |
| -- | Lucas Carneiro | -- | 97-97 | 49-54 | 11-13 | 58 | 244 |
Whenever Carneiro declares, I expect he’ll be going in the fourth round. Of the 10 who’ve been picked in the last five years, seven have gone in the sixth, but I think Carneiro is better and more coveted than those guys.
Only one kicker in the last five years has snuck into the third round – Jake Moody. Carneiro is better than Moody (who didn’t work out for the 49ers). Moody may wind up being a serviceable NFL kicker, but he made only 4 of 8 field goals from 50-plus in his final two seasons at Michigan.
At the same time, third-round picks are awfully valuable. I would think there would be a lot of teams that would simply refuse to invest a pick that high on a kicker. The way the position has evolved, invariably there are suitable options who won’t be picked at all.
Justin Tucker, Cameron Dicker, Brandon Aubrey and Chris Boswell weren’t drafted. There are seven active kickers with at least 100 career field goal attempts who’ve made over 87 percent of their kicks, and only one was originally drafted. (Harrison Butker, who never attempted a kick for the team that selected him.)
Of the 26 active kickers with at least 100 field goal attempts, only three were drafted by the team they currently play for, and those three guys are all below-average players on that list. Those realities could keep Carneiro (awesome as he appears to be) down in the fourth round.
| ACTIVE FIELD GOAL ACCURACY LEADERS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | FGM | FGA | Pct |
| Cameron Dicker | 62 | 129 | 138 | 93.5 |
| Eddy Pineiro | 84 | 139 | 155 | 89.7 |
| Harrison Butker | 137 | 251 | 284 | 88.4 |
| Brandon Aubrey | 51 | 112 | 127 | 88.2 |
| Chris Boswell | 167 | 299 | 341 | 87.7 |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 138 | 255 | 291 | 87.6 |
| Riley Patterson | 61 | 90 | 103 | 87.4 |
| Daniel Carlson | 129 | 225 | 259 | 86.9 |
| Wil Lutz | 148 | 254 | 295 | 86.1 |
| Jason Myers | 171 | 297 | 347 | 85.6 |
| Cairo Santos | 165 | 266 | 312 | 85.3 |
| Younghoe Koo | 98 | 185 | 217 | 85.3 |
| Nick Folk | 258 | 431 | 507 | 85.0 |
| Chase McLaughlin | 98 | 158 | 186 | 84.9 |
| Jason Sanders (7th) | 116 | 187 | 221 | 84.6 |
| Tyler Bass (6th) | 83 | 131 | 155 | 84.5 |
| Matt Gay | 102 | 182 | 216 | 84.3 |
| Matt Prater | 269 | 425 | 507 | 83.8 |
| Graham Gano | 207 | 342 | 408 | 83.8 |
| Jake Elliott | 147 | 216 | 258 | 83.7 |
| Evan McPherson (5th) | 78 | 119 | 143 | 83.2 |
| Michael Badgley | 73 | 109 | 131 | 83.2 |
| Brandon McManus | 186 | 297 | 362 | 82.0 |
| Blake Grupe | 50 | 86 | 105 | 81.9 |
| Joey Slye | 111 | 175 | 215 | 81.4 |
| Zane Gonzalez | 78 | 115 | 142 | 81.0 |
—Ian Allan