That’s quite a kicker matchup that’s queued up in Nashville. Spencer Shrader and Joey Slye have kicked 17 fields in the first two weeks, making for the most field goal heavy Week 3 matchup in league history.
Shrader has made 9 field goals in his first two games, something done by only three other kickers. Slye is one of only eight others who’s bagged 8 field goals in the season’s first two weeks.
| 8 FIELD GOALS IN FIRST 2 GAMES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | XP-A | FG-A | Pts |
| 1996 | John Kasay, Car. | 3-3 | 10-10 | 33 |
| 1967 | Jim Bakken, St.L. | 3-3 | 9-11 | 30 |
| 1985 | Nick Lowery, K.C. | 8-8 | 9-9 | 35 |
| 2025 | Spencer Shrader, Ind. | 5-5 | 9-9 | 32 |
| 1968 | Jan Stenerud, K.C. | 3-3 | 8-9 | 27 |
| 1976 | Jim Bakken, St.L. | 5-5 | 8-10 | 29 |
| 1997 | Richie Cunningham, Dall. | 5-5 | 8-9 | 29 |
| 2006 | Jeff Wilkins, St.L. | 1-1 | 8-10 | 25 |
| 2014 | Dan Carpenter, Buff. | 4-4 | 8-9 | 28 |
| 2024 | Brandon Aubrey, Dall. | 4-4 | 8-8 | 28 |
| 2024 | Chris Boswell, Pitt. | 1-1 | 8-8 | 25 |
| 2025 | Joey Slye, Ten. | 1-1 | 8-8 | 25 |
For fantasy purposes, these guys are more interesting in that neither was even selected in most fantasy drafts. Should we all be grabbing these guys on waiver wires, replacing kickers a few weeks ago we thought would be better?
That is, when a player kicks a bunch of field goals in his first two games, is that an indication he’s going to continue to outperform the other kickers? Or is it more likely to be something that just happened by chance (with the kicker settling into becoming more of a usual kind of performer)?
On this front, we can poke around with numbers from the past. They can show us how things have played out for similar kickers from previous seasons.
Looking at the last 40 teams that have kicked at least 6 field goals in their first two games, we can then examine how those same teams performed in their next 10. That gives some indication of how Shrader-Slye type guys in the past have fared after great starts.
I grabbed one of these guys myself last year – Austin Seibert, after a 21-point game against the Giants. He was great for half of the season, then the Commanders later in the year got a lot better at scoring touchdowns rather than field goals.
Taking a bigger-picture view, of these previous 40 teams, I see 11 (in bold) who in their next 10 games averaged at least a point more than the league average for the position. I see another 15 who were at least better than league average. (For league average, I just took the total number of kicking points scored during the season, dividing it by the number of games, usually resulting in somewhere between 6.9 and 7.4 points.)
There are another 14 teams, however, (and I’ve got them tagged with black dots) who ranked below-average in scoring at kicker for their next 10 games. That’s just over a third – 35 percent of the time when gambling on a Slye-Shrader kind of guy, it has backfield.
For me, I like Shrader, but I didn’t actually pull the trigger on him. I was thinking about it, but I like the kickers I have – McManus, Prater, Butker.
| FAST-STARTING KICKERS -- NEXT 10 GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | XPA | FGA | Pts | NFL | Diff |
| 2024 | Pittsburgh | 25-25 | 26-29 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 |
| 2024 | Washington | 26-28 | 23-26 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | Houston | 24-24 | 21-27 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | San Francisco | 20-21 | 21-27 | 8.3 | 7.4 | .9 |
| 2024 | Green Bay | 29-29 | 16-20 | 7.7 | 7.4 | .3 |
| 2024 | Dallas | 17-17 | 19-24 | 7.4 | 7.4 | .0 |
| 2023 | Dallas | 31-33 | 19-19 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | Philadelphia | 29-29 | 15-16 | 7.4 | 7.1 | .3 |
| 2023 | LA Rams | 17-19 | 18-25 | 7.1 | 7.1 | .0 |
| 2023 | • San Francisco | 37-37 | 11-14 | 7.0 | 7.1 | -.1 |
| 2023 | • Tennessee | 16-17 | 17-18 | 6.7 | 7.1 | -.4 |
| 2022 | • Tampa Bay | 14-14 | 18-20 | 6.8 | 7.0 | -.2 |
| 2022 | • Denver | 9-11 | 17-23 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 2021 | New England | 27-30 | 24-27 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 2.9 |
| 2021 | Las Vegas | 18-20 | 21-24 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 1.1 |
| 2021 | • Washington | 15-18 | 15-19 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 2020 | Atlanta | 20-23 | 27-28 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 26-28 | 18-20 | 8.0 | 7.2 | .8 |
| 2019 | New Orleans | 26-27 | 21-24 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | Arizona | 20-21 | 19-22 | 7.7 | 6.9 | .8 |
| 2019 | • Carolina | 22-26 | 13-19 | 6.1 | 6.9 | -.8 |
| 2018 | Green Bay | 22-24 | 16-22 | 7.0 | 7.0 | .0 |
| 2018 | • San Francisco | 16-18 | 17-18 | 6.7 | 7.0 | -.3 |
| 2017 | New Orleans | 33-36 | 19-23 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | Tennessee | 21-22 | 20-24 | 8.1 | 7.2 | .9 |
| 2017 | Carolina | 22-24 | 17-18 | 7.3 | 7.2 | .1 |
| 2016 | Washington | 24-26 | 22-28 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 1.8 |
| 2016 | Kansas City | 21-23 | 19-22 | 7.8 | 7.2 | .6 |
| 2016 | Dallas | 32-32 | 15-17 | 7.7 | 7.2 | .5 |
| 2016 | • Cincinnati | 18-23 | 16-20 | 6.6 | 7.2 | -.6 |
| 2016 | • Houston | 15-17 | 16-20 | 6.3 | 7.2 | -.9 |
| 2016 | • Carolina | 19-21 | 12-15 | 5.5 | 7.2 | -1.7 |
| 2016 | • NY Jets | 15-16 | 12-14 | 5.1 | 7.2 | -2.1 |
| 2015 | NY Giants | 26-27 | 19-20 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 1.2 |
| 2015 | Baltimore | 20-20 | 20-27 | 8.0 | 7.1 | .9 |
| 2015 | Chicago | 15-16 | 20-25 | 7.5 | 7.1 | .4 |
| 2014 | Buffalo | 19-20 | 19-22 | 7.6 | 7.2 | .4 |
| 2014 | • Cincinnati | 24-24 | 13-15 | 6.3 | 7.2 | -.9 |
| 2014 | • Arizona | 24-24 | 13-15 | 6.3 | 7.2 | -.9 |
| 2014 | • St. Louis | 29-29 | 11-14 | 6.2 | 7.2 | -1.0 |
—Ian Allan