Multiple readers have tossed out the premise that we should be looking to pick quarterbacks on bad teams. When a team is trailing, the theory goes, it ensures they’ll be passing a bunch in the second half. It’s an idea I’ve been meaning to kick the tires on.
Without diving too thoroughly into the weeds, let’s look at it this way. There were seven quarterbacks last year who started at least half the year and lost at least twice as many games as they won. Let’s use those guys as our sample set. Fair?
For each guy, I totaled up his stats in the first halves of the games he started, and did the same for his work after halftime. This comes with the slight pollutant of him not playing at all in the second half should he get hurt. But we’ll roll with it. (And I’m leaving any overtime stats in with the second half.)
If we consider only passing stats (ignoring rushing), these quarterbacks collectively were better in the second halves, by about 13 percent. They averaged 1.7 more pass attempts and 8 more yards in second halves. In 84 games, I see 58 second half touchdown passes, versus only 44 in the first half.
| LOSING QUARTERBACKS IN FIRST HALVES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Att | Yards | TD | Pts |
| Cam Ward | 17 | 13.0 | 92.7 | .47 | 6.5 |
| Geno Smith | 15 | 15.1 | 93.8 | .53 | 6.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 12 | 18.2 | 126.3 | .42 | 8.0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 12 | 14.7 | 102.5 | .75 | 8.1 |
| Joe Flacco | 10 | 17.0 | 105.0 | .60 | 7.7 |
| Justin Fields | 9 | 10.1 | 55.7 | .22 | 3.7 |
| Michael Penix | 9 | 16.4 | 128.2 | .67 | 9.1 |
| Average | 84 | 14.9 | 100.4 | .52 | 7.1 |
But let’s not go too crazy. Of these seven quarterbacks, four were better in second halves, but three averaged better numbers in the first halves of their games (tagged with dots).
| LOSING QUARTERBACKS IN SECOND HALVES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Att | Yards | TD | Pts | Diff |
| • Cam Ward | 17 | 16.3 | 95.6 | .41 | 6.4 | -1.4% |
| Geno Smith | 15 | 14.6 | 107.9 | .73 | 8.3 | 18.1% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 12 | 22.1 | 154.3 | 1.42 | 13.4 | 40.4% |
| • Jaxson Dart | 12 | 13.5 | 86.8 | .50 | 6.3 | -28.1% |
| Joe Flacco | 10 | 23.6 | 140.1 | .90 | 10.6 | 27.9% |
| Justin Fields | 9 | 12.3 | 84.2 | .56 | 6.4 | 42.9% |
| • Michael Penix | 9 | 14.2 | 92.0 | .33 | 5.9 | -53.0% |
| Average | 84 | 16.6 | 108.6 | .69 | 8.2 | 13.2% |
The ringleader of these guys was Jacoby Brissett, who’s been embroiled in a contract dispute. He averaged a league-high 281 passing yards last year, including an additional 28 in the second halves of his games. But I am not a big Brissett fan; with them having a new coaching staff and a new offense, I’m expecting him to be a one-year blip kind of guy.
(I am not a big fan of trying to latch onto garbage time quarterbacks).
—Ian Allan
