I’m not surprised Saquon Barkley isn’t playing as well this year. Anybody running for 2,000 yards is set up to finish with diminished numbers. But I didn’t expect the decline to be so severe.
The Eagles, strange to say, can’t run the ball. They started off with a couple of decent efforts against Dallas and Kansas City, but they’ve been a bottom-10 run defense since that time, averaging 104 yards per game. None of the teams averaging even fewer rushing yards in that span will be in the playoffs – Vikings, Cardinals, Browns, Bengals, Saints, Raiders, Titans.
The offensive line hasn’t been as dominant, in part because of injuries. There’s probably some issues with playcalling and offensive design (they’ve got a new offensive coordinator). And Barkley himself simply hasn’t been as good.
As things stand, Barkley is set up to average over 2 fewer yards per carry. In the 32-team era, only four players have seen their yards per carry average drop more. (Among players with at least 100 attempts in both years.)
| LARGEST DECLINES IN YARDS PER CARRY (2002-) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Next season | Drop |
| 2023 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 103 | 800 | 7.8 | 8 | 203-907-4.4-6 | 3.30 |
| 2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 147 | 830 | 5.6 | 4 | 109-349-3.2-3 | 2.44 |
| 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ari. | 118 | 652 | 5.5 | 3 | 201-660-3.2-3 | 2.24 |
| 2011 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 113 | 614 | 5.4 | 4 | 216-707-3.2-2 | 2.16 |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 345 | 2005 | 5.8 | 13 | 185-684-3.6-4 | 2.11 |
| 2012 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 108 | 532 | 4.9 | 1 | 152-436-2.8-2 | 2.06 |
| 2008 | Derrick Ward, NYG | 182 | 1025 | 5.6 | 2 | 114-409-3.5-1 | 2.04 |
| 2016 | Mike Gillislee, Buff. | 101 | 577 | 5.7 | 8 | 104-383-3.6-5 | 2.03 |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 288 | 1402 | 4.9 | 6 | 144-421-2.9-3 | 1.94 |
| 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 118 | 641 | 5.4 | 3 | 113-403-3.5-3 | 1.87 |
| 2010 | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 147 | 823 | 5.6 | 9 | 152-571-3.7-7 | 1.84 |
| 2004 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 104 | 509 | 4.9 | 8 | 121-380-3.1-8 | 1.75 |
| 2003 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 201 | 1024 | 5.1 | 6 | 244-822-3.3-7 | 1.73 |
| 2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 173 | 766 | 4.4 | 2 | 154-418-2.7-5 | 1.71 |
| 2011 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 170 | 934 | 5.5 | 6 | 115-437-3.8-3 | 1.69 |
| 2003 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 290 | 1591 | 5.5 | 14 | 343-1315-3.8-5 | 1.65 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 229 | 1106 | 4.8 | 10 | 278-885-3.1-6 | 1.65 |
| 2012 | Willis McGahee, Den. | 167 | 731 | 4.4 | 4 | 138-377-2.7-2 | 1.65 |
| 2017 | Dion Lewis, N.E. | 180 | 896 | 5.0 | 6 | 155-517-3.3-1 | 1.64 |
| 2009 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 116 | 685 | 5.9 | 3 | 185-800-4.3-1 | 1.58 |
| 2022 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 259 | 1269 | 4.9 | 11 | 129-432-3.3-1 | 1.55 |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 370 | 1880 | 5.1 | 27 | 252-896-3.5-7 | 1.53 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 6.1 | 8 | 194-883-4.5-14 | 1.52 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 222 | 1124 | 5.1 | 9 | 223-794-3.5-11 | 1.50 |
| 2007 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 223 | 1202 | 5.4 | 5 | 143-556-3.8-1 | 1.50 |
All of which makes Barkley the player to watch in the Black Friday game. Chicago has been terrible against the run; only four defenses have allowed more rushing yards. If Barkley can’t run for 100-plus against these guys, then I would think we could conclude it’s simply not going to happen for him this year.
—Ian Allan