I have some interest in DK Metcalf. Specifically, I like Aaron Rodgers’ tendency to zero on a favorite wide receiver.
In the case of the Steelers, it looks very certain that Metcalf is that No. 1 guy. They don’t have much else. Their 2nd-leading wide receiver is looking like Calvin Austin, who’s better suited to be more of a gadget guy. He’s got burner speed but at 5-foot-9 and 162 pounds, he’s awfully small. (Austin caught 36 passes and 4 TDs last year.)
Robert Woods? Roman Wilson? Please.
The Steelers have a nice pair of tight ends, along with a coordinator who likes using them. In Arthur Smith’s last year with the Falcons, he had two tight ends who caught 50-53 passes. I could see that kind of production from Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith (who was one of those tight ends in Atlanta).
But Metcalf is looking like their guy, and Rodgers a couple of times in the offseason has talked about how impressed he’s been by the former Seahawk. Of course, Rodgers has said all kinds of crazy things in recent years, but in this case, we’ll play along.
Rodgers’ skills have slipped some, but he still has some ability to connect with his primary option. He showed that in the first half of last year with Garrett Wilson, and also later in the year, after Davante Adams showed up and took over that No. 1 role.
Rodgers won his last MVP back in 2021. Adams caught 123 passes and 11 touchdowns that year. Since that time (with Rodgers not playing at as high of a level), his No. 1 wide receivers have still been viable. Allen Lazard was in that role for the first half of 2022, then Christian Watson ignited in the second half of that season.
If we set aside the injury-ruined 2023 season, Rodgers’ No. 1 wide receivers in his last two seasons have averaged about 93 catches for 1,228 yards, with 13 touchdowns. That’s if shifting from Lazard to Watson halfway through the 2022 season, then shifting from Wilson to Adams halfway through last year.
In a typical league using PPR scoring, a top-10 wide receiver averages 16-plus points per game. Rodgers’ leading receivers have hit that level in about half of his games the last two years.
Metcalf isn’t as polished as Adams, of course. He’s not as savvy, and if form holds, he’ll undermine the offense a couple of times with some ill-advised penalties – the same kind of issues the Steelers didn’t tolerate with George Pickens. But Rodgers’ last two seasons are any indication, Metcalf should be seeing about 9-10 targets per week.
The chart below shows Rodgers’ No. 1 wide receivers each week since 2021. For receivers generating at least 16 points (in PPR leagues), their names are in bold.
| AARON RODGERS' NO. 1 RECEIVERS (last 4 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Result | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | PPR |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at N.O. | L, 3-38 | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Det. | W, 35-17 | 9 | 8 | 121 | 0 | 20.1 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at S.F. | W, 30-28 | 18 | 12 | 132 | 1 | 31.2 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Pitt. | W, 27-17 | 11 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at Cin. | W, 25-22 | 16 | 11 | 206 | 1 | 37.6 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at Chi. | W, 24-14 | 5 | 4 | 89 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Was. | W, 24-10 | 7 | 6 | 76 | 1 | 19.6 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Sea. | W, 17-0 | 11 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at Min. | L, 31-34 | 8 | 7 | 115 | 2 | 30.5 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | LAR | W, 36-28 | 9 | 8 | 104 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Chi. | W, 45-30 | 13 | 10 | 121 | 2 | 34.1 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at Balt. | W, 31-30 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 16.4 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Cle. | W, 24-22 | 13 | 10 | 114 | 2 | 33.4 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | Min. | W, 37-10 | 14 | 11 | 136 | 1 | 30.6 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams | at Det. | L, 30-37 | 7 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | Chi. | W, 27-10 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 9.3 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | at T.B. | W, 14-12 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 14.5 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | N.E. | W, 27-24 | 8 | 6 | 116 | 0 | 17.6 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | NYG | L, 22-27 | 8 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13.5 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | NYJ | L, 10-27 | 9 | 4 | 76 | 1 | 17.6 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | at Was. | L, 21-23 | 7 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard | at Det. | L, 9-15 | 10 | 4 | 87 | 1 | 18.7 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | Dall. | W, 31-28 | 8 | 4 | 107 | 3 | 32.7 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | Ten. | L, 17-27 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 2 | 20.8 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | at Phil. | L, 33-40 | 6 | 4 | 110 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | at Chi. | W, 28-19 | 7 | 3 | 48 | 2 | 19.8 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | LAR | W, 24-12 | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | at Mia. | W, 26-20 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | Min. | W, 41-17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | Det. | L, 16-20 | 6 | 5 | 104 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | at S.F. | L, 19-32 | 11 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | at Ten. | W, 24-17 | 6 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | N.E. | W, 24-3 | 9 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | Den. | L, 9-10 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | at Min. | L, 17-23 | 23 | 13 | 101 | 1 | 29.1 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | Buff. | L, 20-23 | 10 | 8 | 107 | 1 | 24.7 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | at Pitt. | L, 15-37 | 9 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | at N.E. | L, 22-25 | 8 | 5 | 113 | 0 | 16.3 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | Hou. | W, 21-13 | 10 | 9 | 90 | 2 | 30.0 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | Hou. | W, 21-13 | 11 | 7 | 91 | 1 | 22.1 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | at Ari. | L, 6-31 | 13 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | Ind. | L, 27-28 | 7 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | Sea. | L, 21-26 | 12 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 17.6 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | at Mia. | L, 26-32 | 11 | 9 | 109 | 1 | 25.9 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | at Jac. | W, 32-25 | 12 | 9 | 198 | 2 | 40.8 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | LAR | L, 9-19 | 13 | 7 | 68 | 1 | 19.8 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | at Buff. | L, 14-40 | 8 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams | Mia. | W, 32-20 | 12 | 6 | 88 | 1 | 20.8 |
—Ian Allan