I posted the factoid yesterday, showing stats in the first versus second halves for quarterbacks who lost twice as many games as they won – looking at whether passing numbers to tend to increase in garbage time. Let me get back into that for a moment, in perhaps a clearer way.
Below see the list of the 61 quarterbacks last year who finished games with at least 30 fantasy points (using traditional scoring). This is including both passing and rushing numbers.
Of these quarterbacks, almost two thirds (38) came from teams that won their games. By definition, they got no help from garbage-time production. And only about a third (21 of 61) came from teams that lost their games. Those quarterbacks would have been more likely to get a garbage-time boost. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.
Only three quarterbacks came from teams that lost by more than a touchdown. These would be guys definitely with some garbage-time potential – Jacoby Brissett, Malik Willis and Justin Herbert. I’ve got them tagged with double dots. (Two quarterbacks from the the high-scoring five-quarter tie between Green Bay and Dallas.)
I take these stats as confirmation that while quarterbacks at times will put up garbage time stats, it’s not a great theory to set out trying to select those guys.
| QUARTERBACKS WITH 30-PLUS POINTS (2025) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp | Result | Pass | Rush | Pts |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | TAM | W, 44-32 | 317-3 | 40-3 | 49.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | NYJ | W, 48-20 | 330-5 | 51-1 | 47.6 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | NYG | W, 33-32 | 279-2 | 48-2 | 42.8 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | BAL | W, 41-40 | 394-2 | 30-2 | 42.7 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | CHI | W, 42-38 | 303-3 | 28-2 | 42.0 |
| • Joe Flacco, Cin. | CHI | L, 42-47 | 470-4 | -1-0 | 41.4 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | CIN | W, 39-34 | 251-3 | 78-1 | 40.4 |
| • Shedeur Sanders, Cle. | TEN | L, 29-31 | 364-3 | 29-1 | 39.1 |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | @CIN | W, 47-42 | 280-3 | 53-1 | 37.3 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | CHI | W, 52-21 | 334-5 | 6-0 | 37.3 |
| • Russell Wilson, NYG | @DAL | L, 37-40 | 450-3 | 23-0 | 36.8 |
| •• Malik Willis, G.B. | BAL | L, 24-41 | 288-1 | 60-2 | 36.4 |
| Bryce Young, Car. | @ATL | W, 30-27 | 448-3 | -1-0 | 36.3 |
| •• Justin Herbert, LAC | IND | L, 24-38 | 420-3 | 31-0 | 36.1 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | @IND | W, 48-27 | 295-5 | 11-0 | 35.9 |
| • Matthew Stafford, LAR | @SEA | L, 37-38 | 457-3 | 6-0 | 35.5 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | @NYJ | W, 42-10 | 256-5 | 22-0 | 35.0 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | GNB | T, 40-40 | 319-3 | 2-1 | 34.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | DET | W, 30-17 | 257-3 | 32-1 | 34.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | @DEN | W, 34-20 | 279-3 | 20-1 | 34.0 |
| • Jalen Hurts, Phi. | @DAL | L, 21-24 | 289-1 | 33-2 | 33.8 |
| • Jameis Winston, NYG | @DET | L, 27-34 | 366-2 | 13-1 | 33.6 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phi. | LAR | W, 33-26 | 226-3 | 40-1 | 33.3 |
| • Jaxson Dart, NYG | @DEN | L, 32-33 | 283-3 | 11-1 | 33.3 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | @DAL | W, 34-17 | 300-2 | 42-1 | 33.2 |
| • Sam Darnold, Sea. | TAM | L, 35-38 | 341-4 | 0-0 | 33.1 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | PHI | W, 24-21 | 354-2 | 9-1 | 32.6 |
| Davis Mills, Hou. | JAX | W, 36-29 | 292-2 | 20-1 | 32.6 |
| Sam Darnold, Sea. | @WAS | W, 38-14 | 330-4 | 0-0 | 32.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | KAN | W, 31-28 | 221-1 | 54-2 | 32.5 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | @TEN | W, 27-20 | 250-2 | 57-1 | 32.2 |
| Daniel Jones, Ind. | MIA | W, 33-8 | 272-1 | 26-2 | 32.2 |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | DAL | W, 31-14 | 298-4 | 12-0 | 32.1 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | GNB | W, 34-26 | 302-4 | 10-0 | 32.1 |
| • Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | @DAL | L, 28-31 | 261-4 | 30-0 | 32.1 |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | @MIA | W, 45-21 | 309-4 | 6-0 | 32.1 |
| • Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | @JAX | L, 28-31 | 318-1 | 60-1 | 31.9 |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | @PIT | W, 35-25 | 360-3 | -1-0 | 31.9 |
| • Justin Fields, NYJ | PIT | L, 32-34 | 218-1 | 48-2 | 31.7 |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | @DAL | T, 40-40 | 337-3 | 28-0 | 31.7 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | KAN | W, 28-21 | 273-1 | 19-2 | 31.6 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | @BAL | W, 28-24 | 380-2 | 25-0 | 31.5 |
| • Matthew Stafford, LAR | SFO | L, 23-26 | 389-3 | 0-0 | 31.5 |
| • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | @BUF | L, 40-41 | 209-2 | 70-1 | 31.5 |
| • Justin Fields, NYJ | @MIA | L, 21-27 | 226-1 | 81-1 | 31.4 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | @BAL | W, 44-10 | 244-4 | 30-0 | 31.2 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | IND | W, 27-20 | 375-3 | 4-0 | 31.2 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | TEN | W, 37-24 | 295-3 | 44-0 | 31.2 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | KAN | W, 27-21 | 318-3 | 32-0 | 31.1 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | CLE | W, 32-13 | 282-3 | 50-0 | 31.1 |
| • Geno Smith, L.V. | JAX | L, 29-30 | 284-4 | 9-0 | 31.1 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | CIN | W, 28-3 | 326-2 | 7-1 | 31.0 |
| • Jaxson Dart, NYG | @CHI | L, 20-24 | 242-0 | 66-2 | 30.7 |
| Kirk Cousins, Atl. | @TAM | W, 29-28 | 373-3 | 0-0 | 30.7 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | @NYJ | W, 37-22 | 237-4 | 28-0 | 30.7 |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | @SEA | W, 38-35 | 379-2 | 15-0 | 30.5 |
| •• Jacoby Brissett, Ari. | SFO | L, 22-41 | 452-2 | -2-0 | 30.4 |
| • Joe Burrow, Cin. | @BUF | L, 34-39 | 284-4 | 0-0 | 30.2 |
| • Jared Goff, Det. | PIT | L, 24-29 | 364-3 | -1-0 | 30.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | BAL | W, 37-20 | 270-4 | 5-0 | 30.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | WAS | W, 28-7 | 299-3 | 30-0 | 30.0 |
| • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | DET | L, 30-38 | 288-3 | 35-0 | 29.9 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | @NOR | W, 25-19 | 261-3 | 28-0 | 29.9 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | @SFO | W, 42-26 | 280-4 | -3-0 | 29.7 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | NOR | W, 34-10 | 281-4 | -4-0 | 29.7 |
| • Riley Leonard, Ind. | @HOU | L, 30-38 | 270-2 | 21-1 | 29.6 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | MIN | W, 37-10 | 227-3 | 62-0 | 29.6 |
| Joe Flacco, Cin. | PIT | W, 33-31 | 342-3 | 3-0 | 29.4 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | ARI | W, 37-20 | 259-4 | 3-0 | 29.3 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | @JAX | W, 35-7 | 182-5 | 1-0 | 29.2 |
| • Jaxson Dart, NYG | SFO | L, 24-34 | 191-2 | 56-1 | 29.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | LVR | W, 31-0 | 286-3 | 28-0 | 29.1 |
| • Aaron Rodgers, Pitt. | @CIN | L, 31-33 | 249-4 | 6-0 | 29.1 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | @LVR | W, 33-16 | 268-4 | -4-0 | 29.0 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | NOR | W, 31-19 | 209-2 | 45-1 | 29.0 |
| • Geno Smith, L.V. | @WAS | L, 24-41 | 289-3 | 5-0 | 29.0 |
| • Jared Goff, Det. | @LAR | L, 34-41 | 338-3 | 0-0 | 28.9 |
| • Justin Fields, NYJ | DAL | L, 22-37 | 283-2 | 26-0 | 28.8 |
| • Carson Wentz, Min. | @PIT | L, 21-24 | 350-2 | 12-0 | 28.7 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | @MIA | W, 33-27 | 230-2 | 31-1 | 28.6 |
| • Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | @LAC | L, 21-27 | 258-1 | 57-1 | 28.6 |
| • Bryce Young, Car. | @ARI | L, 22-27 | 328-3 | 2-0 | 28.6 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | CLE | W, 41-17 | 225-4 | 13-0 | 28.6 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | DAL | W, 44-24 | 247-4 | -1-0 | 28.3 |
| • Mac Jones, S.F. | LAR | L, 26-42 | 319-3 | 3-0 | 28.3 |
| • Marcus Mariota, Was. | DEN | L, 26-27 | 294-2 | 55-0 | 28.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers, Pitt. | @NYJ | W, 34-32 | 244-4 | -1-0 | 28.1 |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | @DET | W, 31-24 | 234-4 | 4-0 | 28.1 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | @WAS | W, 44-22 | 320-3 | 0-0 | 28.0 |
| J.J. McCarthy, Min. | @DAL | W, 34-26 | 250-2 | 15-1 | 28.0 |
| • Josh Allen, Buff. | PHI | L, 12-13 | 262-0 | 27-2 | 27.8 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | NYG | W, 40-37 | 361-2 | 17-0 | 27.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | @IND | W, 23-17 | 263-0 | 26-2 | 27.8 |
| • Jayden Daniels, Was. | CHI | L, 24-25 | 211-3 | 52-0 | 27.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | @ARI | W, 27-24 | 256-3 | 29-0 | 27.7 |
| • Jake Browning, Cin. | DET | L, 24-37 | 251-3 | 31-0 | 27.7 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | @MIA | W, 28-6 | 204-4 | 14-0 | 27.6 |
| • Daniel Jones, Ind. | @PIT | L, 20-27 | 342-1 | 4-1 | 27.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ari. | @DAL | W, 27-17 | 261-2 | 4-1 | 27.5 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phi. | @MIN | W, 28-22 | 326-3 | -10-0 | 27.3 |
—Ian Allan
