Do you go running back or wide receiver in the first round? With an early pick (or a high-priced buy in an auction), it’s always a strong first step to avoid blowing the selection on that keystone player.
It seems like it would be easy. You grab a player who was great last year – like JSN, Bijan, Jahmyr or Nacua – and you’re off to a good start. But there are more misses than you might expect, even with some of the seemingly safest choices on the board. Considering the two big charts below, which show how players putting up top-5 numbers faired in their next season. These tend to be the same players getting the most attention.
If we look at the last 50 running backs who’ve finished with top-5 numbers (using PPR scoring), only 12 of those guys -- less than a quarter - finished with top-5 numbers in the following season. Only 40 percent finished with top-10 stats.
Of that group of 50 running backs, 16 (almost a third) didn’t even finish with top-20 numbers, torpedoing a lot of fantasy seasons.
The numbers are similar with the wide receivers. Slightly more finished with top-5 numbers (16), but slightly more finished outside the top 20 as well. Just short of a third made that elite, top-5 level, while over 40 percent didn’t even make the top 20.
Be careful, it seems, about assuming anybody is a “safe bet” for big numbers. We all need to do a better job of recognizing that we don’t have all the answers.
In the charts below, guys finishing with top-5 stats are in bold. Guys finishing with numbers outside the top-20 are tagged with black dots. At both position, there are most guys finishing outside the top 20 than in the top 5. Stuff can go south.
| TOP-5 RECEIVERS: THE NEXT SEASON | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 15 | 106 | 1,284 | 12 | 307.3 | 1 |
| 2016 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 16 | 101 | 1,367 | 10 | 298.6 | 4 |
| 2016 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 14 | 83 | 1,409 | 6 | 259.9 | 6 |
| 2016 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 16 | 78 | 954 | 4 | 197.4 | 29 |
| 2016 | • Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 15 | 59 | 788 | 3 | 155.8 | 49 |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 14 | 101 | 1,533 | 9 | 310.3 | 2 |
| 2017 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 15 | 71 | 1,001 | 5 | 203.1 | 17 |
| 2017 | • T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 16 | 57 | 966 | 4 | 177.6 | 27 |
| 2017 | • Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 15 | 53 | 482 | 6 | 137.2 | 46 |
| 2017 | • Odell Beckham, NYG | 4 | 25 | 302 | 3 | 74.0 | 84 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 16 | 115 | 1,572 | 11 | 337.5 | 1 |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 15 | 104 | 1,297 | 15 | 323.7 | 5 |
| 2018 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 16 | 97 | 1,196 | 6 | 262.1 | 12 |
| 2018 | Jarvis Landry, Cle. | 16 | 81 | 976 | 5 | 219.8 | 18 |
| 2018 | • Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 16 | 69 | 734 | 6 | 186.0 | 26 |
| 2019 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 15 | 99 | 1,394 | 6 | 274.1 | 3 |
| 2019 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 15 | 104 | 1,165 | 7 | 270.6 | 4 |
| 2019 | • Davante Adams, G.B. | 12 | 83 | 997 | 5 | 214.7 | 23 |
| 2019 | • Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 12 | 58 | 860 | 7 | 188.3 | 33 |
| 2019 | • Antonio Brown, N.E. | 1 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 16.1 | 154 |
| 2020 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 16 | 115 | 1,407 | 6 | 291.8 | 4 |
| 2020 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 15 | 92 | 974 | 3 | 210.7 | 26 |
| 2020 | • Chris Godwin, T.B. | 12 | 65 | 840 | 7 | 191.0 | 31 |
| 2020 | • Julio Jones, Atl. | 9 | 51 | 771 | 3 | 146.1 | 52 |
| 2020 | • Michael Thomas, N.O. | 7 | 40 | 438 | 0 | 83.9 | 95 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 16 | 123 | 1,553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 |
| 2021 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 17 | 111 | 1,239 | 9 | 298.5 | 6 |
| 2021 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 17 | 103 | 1,225 | 10 | 285.5 | 7 |
| 2021 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 10 | 42 | 572 | 8 | 147.2 | 46 |
| 2021 | • Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 5 | 31 | 281 | 2 | 71.1 | 103 |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 17 | 128 | 1,809 | 9 | 369.0 | 1 |
| 2022 | Davante Adams, L.V. | 17 | 100 | 1,516 | 14 | 335.5 | 3 |
| 2022 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 12 | 87 | 1,046 | 9 | 246.4 | 11 |
| 2022 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 9 | 75 | 812 | 7 | 203.4 | 23 |
| 2022 | • Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 13 | 56 | 632 | 5 | 172.4 | 36 |
| 2023 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 16 | 119 | 1,799 | 13 | 378.4 | 2 |
| 2023 | A.J. Brown, Phil. | 17 | 106 | 1,456 | 7 | 293.6 | 5 |
| 2023 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 17 | 107 | 1,183 | 8 | 275.8 | 9 |
| 2023 | Davante Adams, L.V. | 17 | 103 | 1,144 | 8 | 265.4 | 10 |
| 2023 | • Justin Jefferson, Min. | 10 | 68 | 1,074 | 5 | 204.2 | 32 |
| 2024 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 17 | 115 | 1,263 | 12 | 318.3 | 2 |
| 2024 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 15 | 101 | 1,194 | 6 | 265.4 | 8 |
| 2024 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 17 | 81 | 959 | 6 | 218.2 | 18 |
| 2024 | A.J. Brown, Phil. | 13 | 67 | 1,079 | 7 | 216.9 | 20 |
| 2024 | • Puka Nacua, LAR | 11 | 79 | 990 | 4 | 206.6 | 26 |
| 2025 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 17 | 117 | 1,401 | 11 | 324.0 | 3 |
| 2025 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 16 | 125 | 1,412 | 8 | 315.6 | 4 |
| 2025 | Drake London, Atl. | 12 | 68 | 919 | 7 | 203.9 | 18 |
| 2025 | • Justin Jefferson, Min. | 17 | 84 | 1,048 | 2 | 201.5 | 21 |
| 2025 | • Brian Thomas, Jac. | 14 | 48 | 707 | 3 | 138.8 | 42 |
| TOP-5 RUNNING BACKS: THE NEXT SEASON | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2016 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 16 | 1,079 | 462 | 1,541 | 13 | 286.1 | 6 |
| 2016 | • DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 9 | 343 | 118 | 461 | 6 | 100.1 | 49 |
| 2016 | • Doug Martin, T.B. | 8 | 421 | 134 | 555 | 3 | 87.5 | 55 |
| 2016 | • Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 2 | 116 | 35 | 151 | 1 | 27.1 | 97 |
| 2016 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 3 | 72 | 8 | 80 | 0 | 11.0 | 122 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 15 | 1,291 | 655 | 1,946 | 11 | 345.6 | 2 |
| 2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 16 | 1,138 | 448 | 1,586 | 8 | 265.6 | 7 |
| 2017 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 10 | 983 | 269 | 1,252 | 9 | 205.2 | 12 |
| 2017 | • DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 15 | 659 | 266 | 925 | 7 | 173.5 | 21 |
| 2017 | • David Johnson, Ari. | 1 | 23 | 67 | 90 | 0 | 15.0 | 110 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 14 | 1,251 | 580 | 1,831 | 21 | 374.1 | 3 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 883 | 709 | 1,592 | 18 | 354.2 | 4 |
| 2018 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 12 | 885 | 490 | 1,375 | 14 | 275.5 | 8 |
| 2018 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 11 | 824 | 378 | 1,202 | 14 | 230.2 | 12 |
| 2018 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 1,387 | 1,005 | 2,392 | 19 | 471.2 | 1 |
| 2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 16 | 1,357 | 420 | 1,777 | 14 | 315.7 | 3 |
| 2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 14 | 797 | 533 | 1,330 | 6 | 250.7 | 9 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 13 | 1,003 | 438 | 1,441 | 8 | 244.1 | 11 |
| 2019 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 15 | 857 | 207 | 1,064 | 14 | 223.4 | 14 |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 2,027 | 114 | 2,141 | 17 | 337.1 | 3 |
| 2020 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 14 | 1,104 | 355 | 1,459 | 11 | 258.9 | 5 |
| 2020 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 979 | 338 | 1,317 | 8 | 233.7 | 9 |
| 2020 | • Austin Ekeler, LAC | 10 | 530 | 403 | 933 | 3 | 165.3 | 27 |
| 2020 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 3 | 225 | 149 | 374 | 6 | 90.4 | 54 |
| 2021 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13 | 898 | 439 | 1,337 | 9 | 234.7 | 9 |
| 2021 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 15 | 799 | 391 | 1,190 | 10 | 231.0 | 11 |
| 2021 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 13 | 1,159 | 224 | 1,383 | 6 | 210.3 | 16 |
| 2021 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 13 | 849 | 301 | 1,150 | 7 | 199.0 | 19 |
| 2021 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | 8 | 937 | 154 | 1,091 | 10 | 193.4 | 22 |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 17 | 915 | 722 | 1,637 | 18 | 378.7 | 1 |
| 2022 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 814 | 441 | 1,255 | 9 | 239.5 | 11 |
| 2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 17 | 1,034 | 229 | 1,263 | 10 | 227.5 | 14 |
| 2022 | James Conner, Ari. | 13 | 782 | 300 | 1,082 | 8 | 202.2 | 19 |
| 2022 | • Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 11 | 861 | 143 | 1,004 | 4 | 152.4 | 33 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 16 | 1,459 | 564 | 2,023 | 21 | 395.3 | 1 |
| 2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 17 | 1,167 | 214 | 1,381 | 12 | 246.8 | 9 |
| 2023 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 14 | 962 | 280 | 1,242 | 10 | 227.2 | 13 |
| 2023 | • Austin Ekeler, LAC | 14 | 628 | 436 | 1,064 | 6 | 193.4 | 24 |
| 2023 | • Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 13 | 805 | 296 | 1,101 | 6 | 183.1 | 27 |
| 2024 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 16 | 876 | 483 | 1,359 | 8 | 244.9 | 16 |
| 2024 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 16 | 613 | 393 | 1,006 | 9 | 205.6 | 20 |
| 2024 | • Travis Etienne, Jac. | 15 | 558 | 254 | 812 | 2 | 132.2 | 35 |
| 2024 | • Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 13 | 278 | 161 | 439 | 2 | 74.9 | 56 |
| 2024 | • Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 4 | 202 | 146 | 348 | 0 | 49.8 | 69 |
| 2025 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 17 | 1,478 | 820 | 2,298 | 11 | 376.8 | 2 |
| 2025 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 17 | 1,223 | 616 | 1,839 | 18 | 368.9 | 3 |
| 2025 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 16 | 1,350 | 488 | 1,838 | 12 | 322.8 | 5 |
| 2025 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | 17 | 1,595 | 150 | 1,745 | 16 | 285.5 | 7 |
| 2025 | Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 16 | 1,140 | 273 | 1,413 | 9 | 234.3 | 14 |
—Ian Allan

