I don’t think I’ll be drafting Caleb Williams. I don’t like the vibes coming out of Chicago.
I understand that the Bears have an improved offensive line and an above-average group of pass catchers. And they’ve got Ben Johnson coming in to run it; his offenses put up big numbers in Detroit.
But it’s hard to re-wire a quarterback’s thinking. There are guys who are a tick off in the processing of the game – recognizing in a split second where the ball needs to go and letting it rip. And Williams might be one of those who’s never going to make it to the uber-elite level.
Williams took 68 sacks last year, and a lot of those were on him (rather than the offensive line). Too often he either overlooked opportunities or was too hesitant to attempt a high-risk throw.
Ben Johnson knows all this, of course. He’s working on it. But the Bears had two other offensive coordinators last year who unable to make much headway. Neither was a heralded as Johnson, of course, but they would be more highly regarded had they been working with the all-star cast Johnson had in Detroit.
Fixing quarterbacks isn’t easy. Justin Fields, as a prominent example, took a ton of sacks his rookie season, and he’s still taking lots of sacks. And Russell Wilson for his entire career has had a tendency to hold the ball too long.
Williams finished his first season with 68 sacks, the most since David Carr took 76 for the expansion Texans in 2002. Williams was also plagued by sacks in his final season at Southern Car.
The Panthers did a decent job reworking their offense last year. Bryce Young took 62 sacks as a rookie, but they moved him down to 29 sacks in 12 games last season. But that’s more the exception rather than the trend.
In the 32-team era, 14 rookie quarterbacks have averaged at least 3 sacks per game. Over a third of those guys came back the next year and averaged even MORE sacks.
ROOKIE QBs TAKING 3 SACKS PER START | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Sk | Per G | Next |
2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 76 | 4.75 | 1.36 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 55 | 4.23 | 3.19 |
2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 68 | 4.00 | ? |
2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 62 | 3.88 | 2.42 |
2002 | Chad Hutchinson, Dall. | 9 | 34 | 3.78 | -- |
2021 | • Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 36 | 3.60 | 3.67 |
2018 | • Josh Rosen, Ari. | 13 | 45 | 3.46 | 5.33 |
2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 44 | 3.38 | 2.56 |
2010 | • Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 10 | 33 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 39 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 38 | 3.17 | 1.53 |
2023 | • Will Levis, Ten. | 9 | 28 | 3.11 | 3.42 |
2013 | • Mike Glennon, T.B. | 13 | 40 | 3.08 | 3.20 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 30 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 48 | 3.00 | 1.69 |
Early reports out of camp haven’t been great, with Johnson kicking the first-unit offense off the field at one point because it wasn’t operating quickly enough. And Williams went viral on the internet with some wildly inaccurate passes in a throwing drill. There was a head-scratching pick in one scrimmage.
The Bears didn't put Williams on the field in their first preseason game. They say he'll play in their next game.
In the binary world of yeah or nay, I would guess that it probably won’t happen for Williams this year. Certainly he deserves to be a second quarterback chosen in a typical draft (going somewhere in the teens). But there are a lot of guys available. I don’t see him being a surprise top-10 quarterback, and there are a bunch of others I like slightly more as a second option.
—Ian Allan