Jaxon Smith-Njigba serves as the latest reminder that we should not be too quick to draw conclusions about players. He was underwhelming early in his career; now he’s looking like one of the best receivers in the game.
Smith-Njigba, recall, lasted until 20th in 2023 draft. Two others selected just after him in that draft were more productive early in their rookie seasons – Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers. Smith-Njigba doesn’t have burner speed; he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine and reportedly clocked 4.48 under more friendly conditions at the Ohio State Pro Day.
Operating alongside Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, Smith-Njigba in his first 10 games as a pro caught 36 passes for 365 yards and 2 TDs. In the last 10 years of drafts of receivers who’ve completed three seasons, there have been 43 selected in the first round. Just over half of those guys have posted better overall numbers in their first 10 games. (That’s using PPR scoring).
But if we take those same 43 and look at how they did in their third season, Smith-Njigba moves up into the No. 1 spot. Ahead of even the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans.
Not that early production doesn’t mean anything. In the chart below, most of the guys who were unproductive early in their careers continued to struggle. And most of the guys who shined early are the better guys. But there will be some shifting.
| RECEIVERS, rookie v. 3rd year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rookie | First 10 G | Rk | Third Year | Rk |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase | 47-867-8 | 1 | 100-1216-7 | 8 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans | 46-794-7 | 2 | 96-1321-12 | 3 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson | 45-848-4 | 3 | 128-1809-8 | 2 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin | 43-659-7 | 4 | 48-692-3 | 23 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper | 51-736-4 | 5 | 48-680-7 | 22 |
| 2023 | Jordan Addison | 45-603-7 | 6 | 42-610-3 | 25 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins | 45-649-5 | 7 | 28-430-2 | 29 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb | 48-629-4 | 8 | 107-1359-9 | 5 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley | 39-532-7 | 9 | 90-1374-9 | 6 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle | 60-557-3 | 10 | 72-1014-4 | 18 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith | 42-603-4 | 11 | 81-1066-7 | 12 |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks | 53-550-3 | 12 | 78-1173-8 | 10 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave | 46-658-2 | 13 | 32-400-1 | 30 |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers | 50-545-1 | 14 | 86-1211-5 | 11 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | 44-533-2 | 15 | 101-1104-7 | 9 |
| 2020 | Jerry Jeudy | 37-589-2 | 16 | 67-972-6 | 16 |
| 2019 | Hollywood Brown | 30-477-4 | 17 | 91-1008-6 | 13 |
| 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk | 35-446-3 | 18 | 78-1015-8 | 14 |
| 2022 | Drake London | 38-407-3 | 19 | 100-1271-9 | 7 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham | 31-463-3 | 20 | 101-1367-10 | 4 |
| 2018 | DJ Moore | 30-474-2 | 21 | 66-1193-4 | 15 |
| 2023 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 36-365-2 | 22 | 119-1793-10 | 1 |
| 2016 | Will Fuller | 26-389-2 | 23 | 32-503-4 | 27 |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney | 35-392-0 | 24 | 27-169-1 | 35 |
| 2022 | Jahan Dotson | 13-166-4 | 25 | 19-216-0 | 36 |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman | 13-231-2 | 26 | 5-71-0 | 41 |
| 2021 | Rashod Bateman | 21-270-0 | 27 | 32-367-1 | 32 |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks | 20-264-0 | 28 | 4-34-0 | 42 |
| 2020 | Henry Ruggs | 14-256-1 | 29 | 0-0-0 | 43 |
| 2023 | Quentin Johnston | 20-183-1 | 30 | 51-735-8 | 20 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor | 16-211-1 | 31 | 8-104-1 | 39 |
| 2015 | Kevin White | 19-187-0 | 32 | 4-92-0 | 40 |
| 2015 | Phillip Dorsett | 11-167-1 | 33 | 12-194-0 | 37 |
| 2017 | Corey Davis | 16-176-0 | 34 | 43-601-2 | 31 |
| 2015 | Nelson Agholor | 14-148-0 | 35 | 62-768-8 | 19 |
| 2017 | Mike Williams | 9-84-0 | 36 | 49-1001-2 | 21 |
| 2022 | Jameson Williams | 1-41-1 | 37 | 58-1001-7 | 17 |
| 2015 | DeVante Parker | 4-49-0 | 38 | 57-670-1 | 24 |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson | 2-66-0 | 39 | 44-532-2 | 26 |
| 2019 | N'Keal Harry | 3-18-0 | 40 | 12-184-0 | 38 |
| 2016 | Laquon Treadwell | 1-15-0 | 41 | 35-302-1 | 33 |
| 2017 | John Ross | 0-0-0 | 42 | 28-506-3 | 28 |
| 2015 | Breshad Perriman | 0-0-0 | 43 | 16-340-2 | 34 |
—Ian Allan

