Last week we took a look at yards per carry in their final college season for first-round running backs over the last 20 years. Ultimately it didn't appear to be a good predictor of which runners would turn out to be top-quality NFL players.
What about yards per reception for wideouts? College receivers with a chance to go in the first round this year include Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee's Cordarelle Patterson, and West Virginia's Tavon Austin. Hopkins (17.1) and Patterson (16.9) had excellent yards per catch numbers; Austin not so much (11.3). What does that mean for their NFL futures?
Perhaps moreso than with running backs, that high yards per reception in the final year of college looks like a positive for NFL success. Demaryius Thomas, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Marvin Harrison -- all those guys turned into pretty good pros. Clearly there are some notable misses (Charles Rogers, J.J. Stokes, Troy Williamson), but the percentages look more favorable than they did in the running backs factoid.
Listed below are the first-round wideouts from the last 20 years, sorted by yards per catch in their final year of college. Interesting to see that two of the worst averages in that span came from the first two wideouts selected last April: Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd. Lot of NFL flops near the bottom of the list: R. Jay Soward, Ted Ginn Jr., Peter Warrick, Reggie Williams.
YPC, final college season, first-round WRs (1993-2012)
YPC No Yds
25.1 46 1154 Demaryius Thomas
23.1 57 1316 Terry Glenn
21.0 52 1092 Andre Johnson
21.0 45 944 Javon Walker
20.7 54 1116 Rae Carruth
20.6 75 1545 Lee Evans
20.5 71 1452 Roddy White
20.4 84 1713 Ashley Lelie
20.2 56 1131 Marvin Harrison
20.0 41 821 Donte Stallworth
19.9 68 1351 Charles Rogers
19.4 26 505 J.J. Stokes
19.4 43 835 Troy Williamson
19.3 68 1314 Freddie Mitchell
19.1 47 900 Ike Hilliard
19.1 36 689 Michael Westbrook
19.1 48 917 Bryant Johnson
19.0 17 323 Dez Bryant
19.0 57 1082 Charles Johnson
18.7 51 956 Rod Gardner
18.6 69 1286 Sylvester Morris
18.4 53 977 Santonio Holmes
18.3 90 1647 Randy Moss
18.3 71 1298 Robert Meachem
18.2 88 1604 Torry Holt
18.2 92 1672 Larry Fitzgerald
18.1 53 957 Plaxico Burress
18.0 49 881 Thomas Lewis
18.0 74 1330 David Boston
18.0 68 1222 Hakeem Nicks
18.0 72 1293 Reidel Anthony
17.8 77 1367 Rashaun Woods
17.7 35 621 Derrick Alexander
17.6 78 1373 Johnnie Morton
17.6 43 755 Reggie Wayne
17.1 62 1061 Koren Robinson
16.6 45 748 Santana Moss
16.5 65 1070 Sean Dawkins
16.4 45 739 Eddie Kennison
16.1 40 644 Percy Harvin
15.9 42 669 Yatil Green
15.8 76 1202 Calvin Johnson
15.8 63 994 David Terrell
15.8 87 1371 Kenny Britt
15.6 49 764 Curtis Conway
15.5 53 822 Jon Baldwin
15.5 63 977 O.J. McDuffie
15.4 70 1079 Roy Williams
15.4 108 1663 Kendall Wright
15.4 76 1170 Marcus Nash
15.2 65 990 Dwayne Bowe
15.2 55 834 Michael Jenkins
14.9 56 836 Craig Davis
14.9 57 848 A.J. Green
14.5 36 523 Joey Galloway
14.5 78 1133 Julio Jones
14.5 42 609 Darrius Heyward-Bey
14.4 51 734 Anthony Gonzalez
14.3 140 1996 Troy Edwards
14.2 90 1276 A.J. Jenkins
13.8 78 1079 Michael Clayton
13.8 95 1314 Mike Williams
13.7 60 824 Kevin Dyson
13.7 97 1330 Braylon Edwards
13.6 34 463 Travis Taylor
13.5 90 1218 Keyshawn Johnson
13.3 66 876 Mark Clayton
13.2 59 781 Ted Ginn Jr.
13.2 71 934 Peter Warrick
12.6 121 1522 Justin Blackmon
12.6 62 779 Eric Moulds
12.5 89 1109 Reggie Williams
12.4 102 1260 Jeremy Maclin
12.0 97 1165 Michael Crabtree
11.9 55 655 R. Jay Soward
11.5 100 1147 Michael Floyd
--Andy Richardson