Coby Fleener, the first tight end taken in last April's draft, was a disappointment in his rookie season, being outperformed by teammate Dwayne Allen, selected a round later. What can we expect from Fleener in year 2?
Based on the last 20 years, Fleener should see his numbers increase next season, perhaps dramatically. Of the 19 tight ends selected first in the draft from 1993-2011, 12 of those players (63%) saw their yardage increase from year 1 to year 2. Eight of the 12 put up close to double their numbers, or better.
Of the seven whose yardage decreased, meanwhile, Kellen Winslow missed the entire season due to injury, while Bubba Franks put up fewer yards -- but his touchdowns went from just 1 in his rookie season to 9 the next year. Barring injury, then, only a handful saw their production decline in their second season.
Fleener will be competing with Allen for looks in the passing game, but it's too soon to say he won't make a big impact for the Colts.
First TE drafted, year 2 (1993-2012)
Year 1 Year 2
Year Yds TD Yds TD %chg(yds)
2012 281 2 ??? ? ??? Coby Fleener
2011 249 3 493 9 98% Kyle Rudolph
2010 471 4 596 6 27% Jermaine Gresham
2009 346 2 722 4 109% Brandon Pettigrew
2008 535 3 522 2 -2% Dustin Keller
2007 391 2 574 5 47% Greg Olsen
2006 265 3 509 4 92% Vernon Davis
2005 459 6 393 5 -14% Heath Miller
2004 50 0 0 0 -100% Kellen Winslow
2003 340 1 423 5 24% Dallas Clark
2002 894 2 535 2 -40% Jeremy Shockey
2001 206 1 836 6 306% Todd Heap
2000 363 1 322 9 -11% Bubba Franks
1999 146 0 340 2 133% Reggie Kelly
1998 684 6 325 1 -52% Cameron Cleeland
1997 368 2 621 2 69% Tony Gonzalez
1996 386 4 787 7 104% Rickey Dudley
1995 252 2 144 1 -43% Kyle Brady
1994 42 0 504 1 1100% Lonnie Johnson
1993 180 2 330 3 83% Irv Smith
--Andy Richardson