The NFL offseason is already gloriously short, and it's pretty much nonexistent in dynasty leagues. With the draft coming up later this month, and many rookie drafts not long after that, it's not too early to think about how players have been and will be affected by what's gone down so far, and what's to come.
Quarterback: Miami may have overpaid for Mike Wallace, and I don't get the appeal of Brandon Gibson or Brian Hartline. But with Wallace and Dustin Keller, things are definitely looking up for Ryan Tannehill. Going from Hartline, Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano to that group is a nice upgrade for his choices. Losing Jake Long, however, hurts. ... The Bills have added Kevin Kolb, wisely dismissing the idea of starting Tarvaris Jackson. The money Kolb is getting suggests he'll definitely start this season, indicating the Bills don't think much of the incoming rookies. ... I like Brandon Weeden to start for Cleveland and be better than most expect. ... The Ken Whisenhunt hiring should be a good thing for Philip Rivers. They need to retain restricted free agent Danario Alexander, and throw picks at that line. ... Alex Smith helps Kansas City, but I don't expect him to be a big fantasy producer. ... Jacksonville gives all appearances it is not thinking quarterback. Too many needs elsewhere. Still, if it doesn't take one, it's just delaying the inevitable. ... Flynn to Oakland, Palmer to Arizona, is what the reports are saying. Both would probably be one-year stopgaps for teams with unappealing alternatives. ... I don't know if there's a sure rookie starter this season.
Running back: Eddie Lacy is the only running back being talked about as a likely first-round pick, and even that might just be because there are a lot of teams in need of a starter. In dynasty I have Jonathan Dwyer and Isaiah Pead as fourth and fifth options, so I'm curious, obviously, to see if the Steelers or Rams grab him, or one of the other projected top running backs -- Montee Ball and Jonathan Franklin are possibilities. ... I like the Steven Jackson fit in Atlanta, but let's not overrate his long-term potential. He's at an age and career point where injuries will be more frequent and his workload will be managed; Jacquizz Rodgers will play some. Probably a one-year guy, at least in fantasy terms, and this is still a team that will emphasize the pass. ... Shonn Greene is an injury/performance insurance policy for Chris Johnson. He'll be a goal-line back, perhaps, but he's not particularly good at that, and Jake Locker will probably run some near the goal line, too. ... Very intrigued by Lamar Miller in Miami. The Dolphins will give him a chance to carry the load. In Detroit, I think Mikel Leshoure will essentially be a backup and goal-line guy for a team that emphasizes the pass. ... I kind of like Rashard Mendenhall in Arizona. He'll compete with Ryan Williams, but should be the lead back in a team that is going to want to run a lot more. ... Lot of uncertain backfields: Denver, Carolina, the aforementioned Pittsburgh and St. Louis, others. Watch to see what rookies these teams select, because it won't be hard to climb the depth charts of flawed lead backs.
Wide Receiver: Lot of skepticism about Mike Wallace in Miami. I like him as the clear No. 1 with a talented young quarterback. ... Somebody has to step up as the No. 2 in Houston. I like Lestar Jean. ... Danny Amendola replacing Wes Welker should be very busy. I'm not as confident about the other spot, currently Donald Jones or, uh, Michael Jenkins, I guess, but let's see if the Emmanuel Sanders signing occurs near the end of the restricted free agency period. ... Welker is the clear No. 3 in Denver. I guess he'll hurt Decker, but regardless, his own value diminishes. ... I like Greg Jennings in Minnesota, if only because the team has no other choice but to give him plenty of targets. ... I am a little down on Percy Harvin in Seattle. I liked him more in Minnesota where he was the only wide receiver in town. ... I am all in on Randall Cobb in Green Bay. He should play full-time this year. ... Rams are in line to start Brian Quick and Chris Givens, but it sounds like a near certainty they'll draft a wide receiver in the first round, too. ... Not talking about rookies only because they're tougher to discuss without knowing where they'll end up, and acknowledging it will be tough for any to make an early impact. Tavon Austin is drawing the Percy Harvin comparisons, but his size concerns me -- not his height but the fact that he's closer in weight to DeSean Jackson than Harvin or Steve Smith. Cordarrelle Patterson, with the right team, could be the best bet for a Week 1 starter and immediate rookie impact. Raw but very talented, and some team (the Rams? Houston?) might not have a better Week 1 option.
Tight end: To me this is the most interesting position of the offseason, a view skewed I know by the fact that my dynasty league gives tight ends a point and a half per reception, and some likely starters -- Delanie Walker in Tennessee, James Casey (maybe) in Philadelphia -- are available in my league, and can be selected in the rookie/unrostered veterans draft. But a lot of capable receivers changed teams, including Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Brandon Myers and Martellus Bennett. I like three of them, with Myers the exception only because I'm not sure if the Giants will play him full-time or also use a player who's a better blocker. In terms of upside, though, I see a lot from Keller and Cook, who are better receivers than they were able to show in their previous offenses. ... I'm also interested in the top two incoming rookies, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz.