It's rookie draft time for dynasty leagues, pretty much the best time of the season if you're in one of these things. It's kind of like Christmas morning, opening up the presents that will be the heart of your team for the next few years, at least theoretically. A few years ago I plucked Chris Johnson and Ray Rice out of the same draft; that was good. Last year it was Kendall Wright and Isaiah Pead; answer unclear, try again later.
My draft kicks off Friday, a three-round affair in which the 12 teams will select the league's newest rookies. The following is a combination of about how I think it will go, and how I think it should go. Somebody might draft Marcus Lattimore or a quarterback earlier than I personally think they should, so I'm including that likelihood in the projection. The idea is to give people a sense of how things might fall in their own rookie drafts, if they have one. (And if you don't, get cracking! Dynasty leagues are awesome.)
Again, this is a dynasty league (there's always someone who misses this fact), so it doesn't matter that much if such and such a player is a backup in 2013. Five years from now, which players will have had the best 3 seasons? That's what we're selecting here. Ray Rice barely played as a rookie, but he was an awesome dynasty pick.
1.01. Tavon Austin, Rams
1.02. Giovani Bernard, Bengals
1.03. Montee Ball, Broncos
1.04. Eddie Lacy, Packers
1.05. LeVeon Bell, Steelers
1.06. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
1.07. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
1.08. Justin Hunter, Titans
1.09. Keenan Allen, Chargers
1.10. Jonathan Franklin, Packers
1.11. Robert Woods, Bills
1.12. Tyler Eifert, Bengals
Austin is the top pick in most drafts I've seen. I'm not sure I agree. I don't mean to be all sizeist, but I don't see how he can have a huge role in the backfield at just 175 pounds. I see him as an explosive slot receiver and returner who will get some chances carrying the ball, but he's not as solidly built as Harvin or Cobb. I'm going with a running back, and I believe the Ball, Bell, Bernard and Lacy debate comes down to personal preference. Lacy has the injury worries, Bernard may be viewed as more of a committee guy, Bell might be the most ordinary in terms of talent.
With this group of wide receivers, too, I think it comes down to which game you prefer. Patterson is a talent, but rawer than Hopkins or Allen (and with a lesser quarterback situation). Hunter has a similar concern. Woods is going a little earlier than I'd be likely to select him. Franklin curiously slipped on draft day; he'd be higher if another team had drafted him. But if you have reservations about Lacy, as I do, you move Franklin up with the thought he, not Lacy, might turn out to be the better long-term investment.
2.01. Aaron Dobson, Patriots
2.02. Marcus Lattimore, 49ers
2.03. Zac Stacy, Rams
2.04. Christine Michael, Seahawks
2.05. Terrance Williams, Cowboys
2.06. E.J. Manuel, Bills
2.07. DaRick Rogers, Bills
2.08. Quinton Patton, 49ers
2.09. Stedman Bailey, Rams
2.10. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
2.11. Joseph Randle, Cowboys
2.12. Marquise Goodwin, Bills
Second rounds will be wildly different from draft to draft, as some owners will go with name recognition and perceived talent (Lattimore, Michael, Rogers) and others will favor situation (Dobson, Randle). I personally will shy away from Lattimore, but he could go in the first in many drafts. Ditto Dobson, who will be viewed as a possible No. 1 or 2 in New England (I look at New England's history of drafting wideouts and TE-heavy offense and am wary). Ellington was drafted after Stepfan Taylor by the Cardinals, but many believe he's better. Yes, the Bills have three draftable rookie wideouts. No two second rounds will be alike.
3.01. Stepfan Taylor, Cardinals
3.02. Geno Smith, Jets
3.03. Zach Ertz, Eagles
3.04. Knile Davis, Kansas City
3.05. Mike Gillislee, Dolphins
3.06. Travis Kelce, Kansas City
3.07. Markus Wheaton, Steelers
3.08. Matt Barkley, Eagles
3.09. Jordan Reed, Washington
3.10. Kenjon Barner, Panthers
3.11. Vance McDonald, 49ers
3.12. Josh Boyce, Patriots
Quarterbacks, tight ends, and longshot running backs will no doubt fill the third rounds of rookie drafts. There's gonna be somebody who saw such and such play in college (e.g., Barkley) and say, this guy is going to be an NFL star. I don't expect to draft a QB this year myself (in past years I've been among the first to draft one, adding guys like Newton, Locker, Kaepernick, with mostly good results), because I'm not sure any will pan out as fantasy difference-makers.
So, that's about how I think the draft will go. Let me know if you think I've missed some players, who's too high or too low, and your own thoughts on the incoming rookies -- I want to hear 'em. Next week, after the draft has occurred and the dust has settled, I'll write about how it went down.