In the past week I've participated in two experts drafts. I'll be participating in two more, and running the one that we'll publish in our annual preseason magazine, in the next several days. This is when we have to do these things to get them into the magazines you greedily scoop up in early July.
Spoiling these things too much is frowned upon; people are trying to sell magazines, after all. But discussion of one's own team and some general observations are OK. So here are mine.
Experts do not draft quarterbacks. I apparently missed the meeting where fantasy experts were collectively told that quarterbacks should not be drafted early. Year after year, I take some top quarterback in, say, the third round, thinking I'm getting a steal, only to see quarterbacks we have ranked similarly go off the board four rounds later. I considered Tom Brady at 2.10 last night. Good thing I didn't take him, because he was still there when I did take him, at 4.10. And even that was a mistake, because Cam Newton was there for me at 6.10. It's crazy, because every non-experts draft I do this season will see Brady and Newton, and 3 or 4 other quarterbacks, gone in the first 25-30 picks.
Montee Ball is the rookie running back to secure. I liked Ball as the top rookie once the draft was completed, but from what I saw, there was a lot of debate among Ball, LeVeon Bell, Giovani Bernard, and Eddie Lacy. Now it appears clear that Ball is the guy to own, even though as we speak the Broncos still have Willis McGahee and other backs ahead of him. Ball was taken much earlier last night than the other rookies.
No one knows what's up in St. Louis. I've seen Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy all selected as the team's first running back off the board. To me that's ample reason not to draft any of them. Things should be clearer when most people actually draft. I liken the situation to the Washington running backs in early drafts last year. I was taking Roy Helu, others were going with Evan Royster or Tim Hightower. None of those three backs ended up having a lick of value. Avoid.
There's a lot of Gronkowski fear. The Patriots tight end wasn't drafted until the fourth round in my most recent experts draft. He's a monster if he's playing, obviously, but hard to know how to deal with surgeries and infections that few of us understand. Remember also that his coach is Bill Belichick, so Gronkowski will probably be listed as "questionable" on injury reports right up until and even after he ends up in a body cast. Jimmy Graham goes too early for me; I see plenty of good value with mid-round picks. (Last night I took Greg Olsen in the 11th round.)
Everyone ranks the defenses differently. There's never been less reason to use an early pick on a defense. Nobody seems to have strong feelings on which ones are the best, and there's a chance you can get your personal favorite after 4 or 5 others have been taken.
As we speak, I'm participating in an experts dynasty startup league. It's in the early going, but later this week or next I'll write a little bit about that one. And yes, you guessed it: no one is drafting quarterbacks in that one, either.