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Tavon Austin / best rookie receiver?

I'm very impressed with Tavon Austin. With his speed and elusiveness, I think he'll turn a lot of short catches into big plays. He looks like a cross between DeSean Jackson and Barry Sanders.

What, however, is the probability that he'll actually be the best of the rookie receivers (and here, I'm talking career - not just this year)?

There are some other good guys. DeAndre Hopkins could be good in Houston. Maybe Keenan Allen fits perfectly in San Diego. The Vikings drafted Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round, and Tennessee took his college teammate, Justin Hunter, a few picks later.

I've got the last 11 drafts in front of me. As I subjectively grade these guys, it looks like about 50 percent is the hit rate. In five of those 11 drafts did the first wide receiver selected outproduce the next four who were selected.

So there's a chance one of these guys will step up and be better than Austin.

But he still looks like the clear No. 1 to me.


TOP FIVE RECEIVERS DRAFTED, 2002-2012

2002
   13   Donte Stallworth
   19   Ashley Lelie
   20   Javon Walker
   33   Jabar Gaffney
   36   Josh Reed

2003
    2    Charles Rogers
    3    Andre Johnson
   17   Bryant Johnson
   44   Taylor Jacobs
   45   Bethel Johnson

2004
    3    Larry Fitzgerald
    7    Roy Williams
    9    Reggie Williams
   13   Lee Evans
   15   Michael Clayton

2005
    3    Braylon Edwards
    7    Troy Williamson
   10   Mike Williams
   21   Matt Jones
   22   Mark Clayton

2006
   25   Santonio Holmes
   36   Chad Jackson
   44   Sinorice Moss
   52   Greg Jennings
   78   Travis Wilson

2007
    2    Calvin Johnson
    9    Ted Ginn Jr.
   23   Dwayne Bowe
   27   Robert Meachem
   30   Craig Davis

2008
   33   Donnie Avery
   34   Devin Thomas
   36   Jordy Nelson
   41   James Hardy
   42   Eddie Royal

2009
    7    Darrius Heyward-Bey
   10   Michael Crabtree
   19   Jeremy Maclin
   22   Percy Harvin
   29   Hakeem Nicks

2010
   22   Demaryius Thomas
   24   Dez Bryant
   36   Dexter McCluster
   39   Arrelious Benn
   60   Golden Tate

2011
    4    A.J. Green
    6    Julio Jones
   26   Jon Baldwin
   44   Titus Young
   58   Torrey Smith

2012
    5    Justin Blackmon
   13   Michael Floyd
   20   Kendall Wright
   30   A.J. Jenkins
   33   Brian Quick


^aEUR"Ian Allan

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