I'm very impressed with Tavon Austin. With his speed and elusiveness, I think he'll turn a lot of short catches into big plays. He looks like a cross between DeSean Jackson and Barry Sanders.
What, however, is the probability that he'll actually be the best of the rookie receivers (and here, I'm talking career - not just this year)?
There are some other good guys. DeAndre Hopkins could be good in Houston. Maybe Keenan Allen fits perfectly in San Diego. The Vikings drafted Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round, and Tennessee took his college teammate, Justin Hunter, a few picks later.
I've got the last 11 drafts in front of me. As I subjectively grade these guys, it looks like about 50 percent is the hit rate. In five of those 11 drafts did the first wide receiver selected outproduce the next four who were selected.
So there's a chance one of these guys will step up and be better than Austin.
But he still looks like the clear No. 1 to me.
TOP FIVE RECEIVERS DRAFTED, 2002-2012
2002
13 Donte Stallworth
19 Ashley Lelie
20 Javon Walker
33 Jabar Gaffney
36 Josh Reed
2003
2 Charles Rogers
3 Andre Johnson
17 Bryant Johnson
44 Taylor Jacobs
45 Bethel Johnson
2004
3 Larry Fitzgerald
7 Roy Williams
9 Reggie Williams
13 Lee Evans
15 Michael Clayton
2005
3 Braylon Edwards
7 Troy Williamson
10 Mike Williams
21 Matt Jones
22 Mark Clayton
2006
25 Santonio Holmes
36 Chad Jackson
44 Sinorice Moss
52 Greg Jennings
78 Travis Wilson
2007
2 Calvin Johnson
9 Ted Ginn Jr.
23 Dwayne Bowe
27 Robert Meachem
30 Craig Davis
2008
33 Donnie Avery
34 Devin Thomas
36 Jordy Nelson
41 James Hardy
42 Eddie Royal
2009
7 Darrius Heyward-Bey
10 Michael Crabtree
19 Jeremy Maclin
22 Percy Harvin
29 Hakeem Nicks
2010
22 Demaryius Thomas
24 Dez Bryant
36 Dexter McCluster
39 Arrelious Benn
60 Golden Tate
2011
4 A.J. Green
6 Julio Jones
26 Jon Baldwin
44 Titus Young
58 Torrey Smith
2012
5 Justin Blackmon
13 Michael Floyd
20 Kendall Wright
30 A.J. Jenkins
33 Brian Quick
^aEUR"Ian Allan
May 14, 2013