When you select a star running back in the first round, what's the probability of that guy getting hurt? Probably a lot higher than you realize.
Pushing around the numbers, it looks like they get hurt more often than they stay healthy.
Consider, for example, these numbers:
In this century (since 2000), 81 running backs have started 15 or 16 games and also averaged 100 total yards per game. (This is the group that guys like Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris finished in last year).
But how many of those guys come back and stay healthy (or relatively healthy) the next year?
Of the 81, 11 missed at least half of the year. That's about 14 percent.
Only 35 (43 percent) came back and started all 16. And only 56 percent managed to start 15-plus games.
Running backs get hurt (or benched). That's the reality.
We should all but selecting the handcuff-type backs a lot sooner. Each one has about a 14 percent chance of starting over half of the year. In a ballpark sense, if you can collect three handcuffs (think Gerhart-Tate-Turbin) that's about equivalent to having one of the big-time running backs.
RUNNING BACKS -- DURABILITY RATES
St No Pct
16 35 43%
15 10 12%
14 7 9%
13 2 2%
12 8 10%
11 4 5%
10 2 2%
9 2 2%
8 4 5%
7 0 0%
6 2 2%
5 2 2%
4 1 1%
3 0 0%
2 2 2%
1 0 0%
Ian Allan
May 21, 2013