If you're trading out of the first round, what's fair? When does the deal become sweet enough that you should part with your best draft pick?
I'm participating in the ongoing Fanex Analysis Draft. I traded away my first round pick, to Matt Schauf of Draft Sharks, and now that the draft's in the 9th round, we can look back and see how that grades out.
I gave away picks 1.06 and 8.07. Matt selected LeSean McCoy and Miles Austin with those choice.
In return, I received choices 2.12 and 3.01, but I actually traded both of those in two additional trades. To simplify things, let's just look at who I would have picked with choices 2.12 and 3.01 and compare that with what I would have chosen with picks 1.06 and 8.07. And to further simplify it, I'm going to select one running back and one wide receiver with each pair of picks.
With choices 1.06 and 8.07, I would have selected Ray Rice (256 points) and a receiver who would have produced about 187 points - think Lance Moore or Justin Blackmon. So the combined production for that pair projects to be 443 points.
Had I stuck at 2.12 and 3.01, I would have selected Darren Sproles (228 points) and Randall Cobb (252 points). Combined production: 480 points. So if my projections are right, I should have picked up an extra 37 points of value in that trade.
Some will think my projection of Sproles is way too high. He's really a third-down back. But this is PPR scoring, so when he catches 80 passes for 700 yards, that's 150 points right there - no even looking at touchdowns, rushing yards and maybe a kick-return score. And some might not buy into Cobb, since he's a younger, up-and-coming type guy.
But whatever. For those who want to plug in other, more traditional options, it would work this way: Maurice Jones-Drew (208 points) and Victor Cruz (247 points) combine for 455 points. That combo wins out, but by only 12 fantasy points.
If we change the trade, switching pick 8.07 to 7.06, then it becomes more of a wash-type trade. In that round, there were still some pretty tasty receivers available - Steve Smith, Tavon Austin, Mike Williams. I've got all those guys at 210 points. So in that format the 1.06/7.06 combo grades out at 466 points - pretty close to 2.12 and 3.01.
Results will vary based on scoring systems and who the opponents are drafting, of course. But for this league, it looks like if you're involved in a trade for a mid first-round pick, the fair (take it or leave it) compensation is a 7th-round pick. (That's if the trade is for 2nd- and 3rd-round picks from the other team). If the trade is for something like an 8th- or 9th-round selection, I think that favors the team with the first-rounder. If you're looking at a 6th-round pick as the balancer, then I think that favors the team giving up its choices in the second and third rounds.
All of this, of course, is just numbers and details - just probabilities. If LeSean McCoy knocks it out of the park this year, Matt Schauf will be happy with the trade. If Darren Sproles washes out, then I'll have made a mistake. And if both Sproles and Cobb rip it up, then it will be a successful trade.
^aEUR"Ian Allan
Fantasy News
June 07, 2013