Alan Satterlee of Fantasy Football Warehouse drops by to offer his top 20 rookie prospects for those in dynasty-style fantasy leagues.
Who are the top rookie prospects in a dynasty format? Alan Satterlee weighs in with his opinions. Satterlee isn’t a Fantasy Football Index writer; he’s one of the main analysts at FantasyFootballWarehouse.com and DynastyFootballWarehouse.com. This is the same company that in the past was known as “Dynasty Rogues”. In the past, they focused mainly on dynasty content. Now they’ve branched out to have both dynasty and regular fantasy material.
The opinions in this article are Satterlee’s. He’ll debate and discuss these player ratings with Ian Allan in an upcoming episode of the Fantasy Index podcast.
TOP 20 DYNASTY PROSPECTS
by Alan Satterlee
1. WR Tavon Austin – St. Louis
Senior (5‐9 / 174) West Virginia; 8th pick
The Rams made a huge splash on draft day, giving up three picks to move from #16 to #8 to nab Austin. Look for the Rams to find numerous ways to get him the ball right out of the gate, on a team whose passing game is set to ignite in my opinion. Austin will be a difficult receiver to cover out of the slot, but will also get screen passes and rushing attempts as well. It’s hard to select such a small receiver as your number #1 dynasty prospect but Austin is a rare prospect who deserves the gamble. At the Combine, not only did Austin blaze a 4.34 in the 40, but laying down 14 reps on the bench press was extremely impressive for a man his size and Austin reportedly never even missed even a practice while at West Virginia.
2. WR Cordarrelle Patterson – Minnesota
Junior (6‐2 / 216) Tennessee; 29th pick
Patterson will join Greg Jennings to form a suddenly revamped 1‐2 WR tandem for the Vikings. Despite being a much larger receiver, Patterson has the skill set to do everything Percy Harvin had done for the Vikings, and like Harvin, Patterson is dynamic in the open field with unique instincts and shifty moves. Patterson is also very strong and can power through arm tackles and is effective in red zone. Longer‐term, however, the Vikings probably need an upgrade at QB. Look for Patterson to also be used on end‐arounds and he will also get work on punt or kickoff returns. Wide Receivers are typically where it's at in dynasty ball and I am slotting WRs 1‐2 here.
3. RB Montee Ball – Denver
Senior (5‐11 / 214) Wisconsin; 58th pick
Ball lands in an absolutely perfect spot. There is very little stopping him from instantly walking in and being in the starting lineup in the Peyton Manning‐led Bronco offense. There were 57 TDs to distribute last year in Denver, the 3rd-most in the NFL. Knowshon Moreno remains in the way and Ronnie Hillman will get mixed in but Ball can play all the downs and has big upside. Ball isn't going to dazzle but gets the job done (Ball said he is "a Curtis Martin type of back") and left Wisconsin as the NCAA career touchdown leader (83).
4. RB Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals
Redshirt Sophomore (5‐8 / 202) North Carolina; 37th pick
Bernard lands in a great spot as his versatility and athleticism adds a much‐needed spark to the Bengals' running game, and Bernard can also catch extremely well out of the backfield. The Bengals are putting together the pieces for an explosive offense and Bernard's future is pretty bright no matter how you look at it – he can either be a Ray Rice type of a back (as some had compared to him to) or be more of a pass‐catching specialist, but he will get a lot of work regardless. Bernard has a nice blend of solid size with true playmaker skills on the field with great vision and a fantastic first step and quick feet.
5. RB Le'Veon Bell – Pittsburgh
Junior (6‐1 / 230) Michigan State; 48th pick
Bell is a true bellcow back in the old school definition, who can easily carry a team for 300 carries. Bell totaled 382 carries last year for MSU – a whooping 29 per game average. Pittsburgh needs a new identity at running back and Bell will be it. He will quickly be a hometown favorite with his tremendous moves for a man his size (a fantastic spin move in particular). Bell is also a natural pass‐catcher (he added 32 receptions as a senior). One concern is Bell tends to take a lot of direct hits.
6. WR DeAndre Hopkins – Houston
Junior (6‐1 / 214) Clemson; 27th pick
Houston has done a horrible job lining up a #2 WR opposite Andre Johnson essentially all of his career and now they have an elite option in Hopkins, who is a massive upgrade over last year's #2 WR Kevin Walter. Some may say that the Texans' offense doesn't call for a #2 wideout, but the reality is they simply have had marginal talent in that role (since Johnson came into the league they have bounced between an aged Eric Moulds, and mediocre talents Jabar Gaffney and Kevin Walter). Hopkins should instantly start for the Texans and should be able a #4 fantasy WR this season and could be the team’s #1 WR down the line. Hopkins runs very sharp routes and has exceptional hand/eye coordination.
7. RB Eddie Lacy – Green Bay
Junior (5‐11 / 231) Alabama; 61st pick
Lacy goes to a Packers team that has averaged just 1,630 yards rushing and 10.5 rushing TDs the last two seasons. The Packers will no doubt remain a pass‐first team but Lacy (and Johnathan Franklin) were brought in to improve the team's dreadful rushing attack. There are points to be had in Green Bay regardless. A bigger concern for Lacy is will he get enough of a workload versus Franklin to justify Lacy being a near-top rookie in dynasty drafts and another concern is ensuring that Lacy remains healthy (hamstring, toe). Lacy has a nose for the end zone which should be a good fit for the prolific scoring Green Bay offense and you could bump up a spot in non‐PPR leagues. Lacy was difficult to stop in red zone with 30 rushing TDs in college (nearly 1 in 10 of his carries ended in a TD at Alabama).
8. WR Justin Hunter – Tennessee
Junior (6‐4 / 196) Tennessee; 34th pick
The Titans aggressively traded up to land Hunter, adding in their 2014 4th round pick plus their 7th round pick in 2013 draft to move up six spots. It is a somewhat crowded receiving corps this season between veterans Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, plus 2nd‐year WR Kendall Wright. Hunter will get a chance to make some big plays but it may take until 2014 before he really gets a chance to be a featured receiver. Britt is in the final year of his contract while Washington is scheduled to make $4.8 million in 2014 and will either need to restructure or certainly will be released at that price. With great height (6‐4), Hunter physically looks similar to A.J. Green. Hunter has tremendous upside and tracks deep balls well and he is difficult to beat in jump‐ball situations.
9. TE Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati
Senior (6‐6 / 250) Notre Dame; 21st pick
Having Eifert land in Cincinnati was a bit of surprise as former 1st rounder Jermaine Gresham is coming off his best season as a pro (64‐737‐5). The Eifert pick marks the second time in four years that the Bengals have taken a tight end with its 1st round pick, not to mention they drafted Orson Charles last year in the 4th round. The Eifert selection almost has to signal that the Bengals will attempt to implement more of a 2‐TE set as its base offense, copying the success the New England Patriots have had. Look for Eifert to have a fairly significant role in the game plan in 1‐back, 2‐WR, 2‐TE sets early in his career. Eifert is a natural receiver and will provide mismatch problems. He has big‐time Pro Bowl potential.
10. RB Christine Michael – Seattle
Senior (5‐10 / 220) Texas A&M; 62nd pick
Going to Seattle looks murky though for quick playing time but then again maybe Christine Michael will shine so clearly that he gets on the field (and Pete Carroll let Russell Wilson both earn and receive his playing time last year). Marshawn Lynch is a great back but few have more off‐the‐field risks not to mention he has had back problems and Michael is potentially one injury away from being a top-10 fantasy back (he certainly has that type of talent). Michael had an amazing Combine. No back even came close to Michael in skill‐testing. Michael was 1st among RBs in both the 3‐cone and 20‐yard shuttle drills, 2nd‐best in the broad jump and was also 1st in the vertical jump, an almost unbelievable 43". Michael also showed off his strength with 27 reps in the bench press, tied for 3rd‐ best among RBs. On the downside, Michael accidentally slept through two team interviews.
11. WR Aaron Dobson – New England
Senior (6‐3 / 210) Marshall; 59th pick
Dobson is a little raw and New England likes to spread the ball around so he likely won't have much chance to approach a 70‐catch type of a season in 2013. However, there is little standing in Dobson's way from starting in New England and they are in dire need of play‐makers. Dobson is a great fit as he fills a massive need for a fast, athletic outside receiver for the Patriots. Dobson has exceptional physical skills with tremendous hands (he was targeted a total of 92 times in 2012 at Marshall and didn't drop a single pass). For what it's worth, New England has had a terrible track record of drafting WRs (Taylor Price in the 3rd in 2010, Brandon Tate in the 3rd in 2009, and Chad Jackson in the 2nd in 2006) but I think they finally break that mold here.
12. WR Keenan Allen – San Diego
Junior (6‐2 / 206) – California; 76th pick
Allen fell some to the 3rd round but he lands in a good spot. San Diego has some veterans WR ahead of him (Darnario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown) but they are hardly a collection of all‐stars (although I like Vincent Brown a fair bit). Allen has a good chance to be the team's #1 wideout with time and should get involved early in his rookie season. Allen is a particularly good fit with new Chargers' coach Mike McCoy and the West Coast type offense he will be employing (versus the chuck it deep version Norv Turner had). Allen is quick off the snap, gets separation quickly, is pro‐ready and he has very good hand/eye coordination.
13. WR Markus Wheaton– Pittsburgh
Senior (5‐11 / 189) Oregon; 79th pick
The Steelers have consistently turned to the NFL Draft for a new infusion of talent at wideout, especially these middle‐size‐type WRs. Wheaton should be in‐store for a fairly solid amount of work right out of the gate and is far more talented than Emmanuel Sanders. Wheaton has plenty of experience and left Oregon State with the school record for career receptions with 227 and was a team captain. Wheaton has both good short area quickness and has elite speed to stretch defenses.
14. RB Zac Stacy – St. Louis
Senior (5‐8 / 216) – Vanderbilt; 160th pick
It's hard not to be at least a little bit bullish on Zac Stacy's chances right out of the gate. Gone is Steven Jackson and holdovers Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead have not shown they can be a lead RB yet (although Richardson finished with a 4.8 YPC average on 98 carries last season). Stacy has a good chance to start and would do so on a team with a lot of new weapons that should be putting up points. Stacy isn't an elite athlete but he is a complete back who can do many things well and he does a good job deciding on when to take what is given versus when to bounce outside. Stacy scored an impressive 24 TDs over his junior and senior seasons against SEC competition and on a team where he was the focal point of the defense.
15. WR Robert Woods – Buffalo
Junior (6‐0 / 201) Southern Cal; 41st pick
The Bills had a real need at making‐over their wide receiver corps, and the team work to address that with Robert Woods in the 2nd round, Marquise Goodwin in the 3rd round and Da'Rick Rodgers as an undrafted rookie (who certainly could be their best addition). Woods is a very polished receiver and should quickly start in Buffalo. Woods runs exceptional routes, is willing to go over the middle and is able to get separation with fantastic vision and very good run‐after‐the‐catch skills. You do have to worry some about USC WRs in the NFL however, and Woods averaged just 11.1 YPC in 2012 despite playing opposite star Marqise Lee and battled ankle injuries in college. That said, he looks like to me as a very solid addition for the new‐look Bills.
16. QB E.J. Manuel – Buffalo
Senior (6‐5 / 237) Florida State; 16th pick
The Bills added Kevin Kolb in free agency but he can't stay healthy and hasn't played particularly well when healthy. It won't take long before the E.J. Manuel era starts in Buffalo. There's a lot of youth on this team and Manuel almost certainly won't be a major factor in 2013 but longer‐term he could be a fantasy difference‐maker as running QB who can also pass well. Manuel has tremendous size and a great arm mixed with well above average athleticism. Manuel left FSU with a very solid 66.9% career completion percentage. Manuel was the only QB selected in the 1st round this year.
17. RB Marcus Lattimore – San Francisco
Junior (5‐11 / 221) South Carolina; 131st pick
Lattimore landed in perhaps the perfect spot. San Francisco had a lot of draft choices and good depth to be able to redshirt Lattimore for a year and give his knee extra time to heal. Lattimore had Heisman‐level type talent and potential and was an extremely powerful back with tremendous balance, an ability to break tackles and was very tough to bring to the ground. Lattimore also works hard and understands the nuances of the RB position. It all depends on his recovery however from a horrific injury and also being able to stay healthy going forward after ACL tears in back‐to‐back seasons. Don't expect much from Lattimore in 2013 but he has a lot of upside in 2014 and beyond, assuming he can return from what was a brutal injury. Frank Gore turns 30 in May and 2014 is the final year of his contract.
18. RB Johnathan Franklin – Green Bay
Senior (5‐10 / 205) UCLA; 125th pick
He goes to a team that drafted Eddie Lacy in the 2nd so his path may be limited, but that said he also goes to the dynamic Packers' offense and Franklin could instantly be playing in spread / shot gun formations anyway, which Green Bay runs a lot of. Also, it will remain to be seen until it happens ultimately that Eddie Lacy is indeed in good health and can stay that way (Lacy missed the Combine due to a hamstring tear and reports also surfaced he dropped to the late 2nd round of the NFL Draft due to toe issues). Franklin is a shifty back who can change directions on a dime but also has good power for his size.
19. WR Chris Harper – Seattle
5th‐Year Senior (6‐1 / 229) Kansas State; 123rd pick
It may require patience but Chris Harper landed in a very good spot with the Seahawks alongside young star QB Russell Wilson. Harper will get mixed in behind a deep set of seasoned starters (Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate) but it is possible Harper could be starting as early as 2014. Golden Tate is in the final year of his original rookie contract and will be an UFA while Sidney Rice is owed $8.5 million next season in the final year of his contract and he certainly could be a cap‐casualty candidate at that price. This is an aggressive ranking on Harper and you may be able to get him later in your dynasty drafts but I am very bullish on Harper. Harper is a solid route‐runner who tracks the ball exceptionally well and has exceptionally strong hands (he looks like a young Anquan Boldin).
20. RB Latavius Murray – Oakland
Redshirt Junior (6‐3 / 223) Central Florida; 181st pick
This also may seem like a bit high and you may be able to get Murray later in your drafts but he has massive sleeper potential. Oakland has very little in the way of solid RB depth and Darren McFadden's injury history is well documented. Not invited to the NFL Combine, Murray's stock rose out of nowhere heading into the NFL Draft after a remarkable performance at the Central Florida Pro Day. Murray ran a 4.40 and 4.38 seconds in the 40. He had a monster 10‐4 broad jump and a solid 36" vertical jump. His scores in quickness drills was also impressive with 4.36 in the shuttle and a 6.81 in the 3‐cone. Murray also showed solid strength with 22 lifts in the bench press. Murray has a nice first‐step, a fantastic stiff arm and also catches the ball naturally with hands. As an added bonus, his nickname is "LT".
Alan Satterlee is one of the main analysts at FantasyFootballWarehouse.com and DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.