San Francisco is looking a wide receiver who can start while Michael Crabtree mends from an Achilles injury, but it will be a surprise if rookie Quinton Patton emerges with that job.
The name Quinton Patton is getting batted around, as if he's the guy who could save San Francisco's injury-riddled receiving corps. But that looks unlikely.
If Patton was a big-time receiver, chances are he would have been picked long before the start of the fourth round of the draft. And history shows that you simply don't see many wide receivers selected in the fourth round doing much of anything right away.
There have been 50 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round in the last 10 years. By my count, three of those guys played well enough that in hindsight, they had some fantasy value in that first year. Austin Collie, Mike Williams and Jacoby Ford. If you want to lower the ball a little, you can add Chris Givens as well; he made some big downfield catches for the Rams last year.
Others in that group became could players. Most notably Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Cecil Shorts III. But I'm looking just as rookie years, and 4 of 50 -- 8 percent -- is about the success rate.
For me, Quinton Patton isn't even on my draft board until and unless I see him do something of note in the preseason.
Fourth-round receivers (2003-2012) | ||
---|---|---|
2003 | Shaun McDonald | Rams |
2003 | * Brandon Lloyd | 49ers |
2003 | Sam Aiken | Bills |
2004 | Carlos Francis | Raiders |
2004 | Samie Parker | Chiefs |
2004 | Jerricho Cotchery | Jets |
2004 | Ernest Wilford | Jaguars |
2005 | Jerome Mathis | Texans |
2005 | Craphonso Thorpe | Chiefs |
2005 | Chase Lyman | Saints |
2005 | Fred Gibson | Steelers |
2005 | Roydell Williams | Titans |
2006 | Michael Robinson | 49ers |
2006 | Brad Smith | Jets |
2006 | Cory Rodgers | Packers |
2006 | Jason Avant | Eagles |
2006 | Demetrius Williams | Ravens |
2006 | Will Blackmon | Packers |
2006 | * Brandon Marshall | Broncos |
2006 | Skyler Green | Cowboys |
2006 | Domenik Hixon | Broncos |
2007 | Isaiah Stanback | Cowboys |
2007 | Ryne Robinson | Panthers |
2007 | Chris Davis | Titans |
2008 | Will Franklin | Kansas City |
2008 | Marcus Smith | Ravens |
2008 | Arman Shields | Raiders |
2008 | Lavelle Hawkins | Titans |
2008 | Keenan Burton | Rams |
2009 | Mike Thomas | Jaguars |
2009 | Brian Hartline | Dolphins |
2009 | Louis Murphy | Raiders |
2009 | Austin Collie | Colts |
2010 | Mardy Gilyard | Rams |
2010 | Mike Williams | Buccaneers |
2010 | Marcus Easley | Bills |
2010 | Jacoby Ford | Raiders |
2011 | Kris Durham | Seahawks |
2011 | Edmond Gates | Dolphins |
2011 | Greg Salas | Rams |
2011 | * Cecil Shorts III | Jaguars |
2011 | Tandon Doss | Ravens |
2012 | Chris Givens | Rams |
2012 | Travis Benjamin | Browns |
2012 | Joe Adams | Panthers |
2012 | Devon Wylie | Chiefs |
2012 | Jarius Wright | Vikings |
2012 | Keshawn Martin | Texans |
2012 | Nick Toon | Saints |
2012 | Greg Childs | Vikings |
--Ian Allan