Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What to look for in the preseason games. Field players who also return kicks. Is Carson Palmer a viable sleeper? Quirky rules to keep it fun. And what happens when touchdown passes are worth 6 points?
Question 1
It's fun to watch preseason games, but what you see can be misleading. A guy rips off a long run, but it was against the other team's third-string defense. What do you do to separate the wheat from the chaff and not to overreact to what you see?
Dave (MOJO) Smith (WALLS, MS)
In my opinion, you start by seeing where/when the guys are appearing. If Zach Sudfeld gets all the playing time with New England’s first-unit offense, that’s a sign they’re seriously considering him as an option while Gronkowski is out. If Sudfeld also catches all 3 passes thrown his way while he’s out there, that’s even better. If a potential starter doesn’t appear until the third-unit guys are out there, you make note of it. For all of these games, the first half is far more meaningful than the second. Now we will see some unknowns do some good things late. Victor Cruz comes to mind as an undrafted free agent who had the big game against the Jets as a rookie; I think he caught 3 TDs against them. We all should have paid a lot more attention on that one; Cruz didn’t really play as a rookie, but he became a star in Year No. 2. Joique Bell comes to mind as a similar type of guy. Bell ran for a bunch of yards for the Bills. To the naked, untrained eye, you see him as say, “Hey, isn’t this guy capable of being a No. 2 tailback? Maybe a starter someday?” In Bell’s case, he bounced around the league for a while before finally emerging as a viable backup last year in Detroit.
Question 2
I have an upcoming draft where they give big points to players that return punts and kickoffs. I won this league last year in part due to having Randal Cobb . Return yards are worth just as much as scrimmage yards 1 point for every ten. Crazy I know. I need a list of guys who will play special teams and on offense. I suspect Cobb won’t be handling those duties or Golden Tate either.
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
I doubt that Cobb or Tate will be used on returns. Too risky. And I’ll put Antonio Brown of the Steelers in that same group. Darren Sproles, though, should handle both for New Orleans, plus catch 70-90 passes and run for maybe 400 yards. Tavon Austin should be on your radar; he might return both for the Rams. Jacoby Jones will definitely handle both for the Ravens, and he should also be their third receiver; last year he went for 1,167 yards on kickoffs, 406 as a receiver and 341 on punts. T.Y. Hilton will be a starter-like receiver for the Colts, and he should also return punts (but punts aren’t as valuable as kickoffs for yards). Joe McKnight should handle kickoffs for the Jets (maybe go over 1,000 yards) but I don’t think he’ll play enough on the field. DeSean Jackson is indicating he’ll return at least some punts this year. Danny Woodhead has experience returning kicks; we’ll have to look into his status. Jacquizz Rodgers should be one of the busier No. 2 backs, and he’ll probably also return kickoffs again. The Vikings are talking about using Cordarrelle Patterson on both kickoffs and punts; he’s a possibility, if he can play well enough to be their No. 3 receiver. The Giants used David Wilson (KO) and Rueben Randle (punts) on returns last year; you can look into them. I don’t think Wilson will be used in that capacity again. LaMichael James should begin the year as the No. 2 tailback in San Francisco; they’re going to use him on both kickoffs and punts.
Question 3
I can't believe I am saying this, but Carson Palmer has me very intrigued. It's not Palmer himself, it's him being in Arians' offensive. Look at what Arians did with a rookie QB last yr. Add in better WRs and I think Palmer along with Fitz can have a big year. Thoughts?
LOUIS MAIELLANO (PHILADELPHIA, PA)
Well, that’s one way to look at it. But Andrew Luck got sacked 41 times, and a lot of that (I think) can be attributed to Bruce Arians. In his offense, Arians wants deeper drops by the quarterbacks and longer throws – the quarterback must hold the ball longer. Arians isn’t a dumpoff-ball coach. So when he asks Palmer to hold the ball longer behind that offensive line, what do you think is going to happen?
Question 4
Thanks for a great FF resource that I have used and won with for years. I am the head of my league and as I prepare for my draft this year I was wondering if some of your readers would offer some suggestions as to how they keep their draft exciting and fresh after they have been at it with the same league for 8-10 years. Thanks for considering my topic and keep up the great work!!
Christopher Adsit (MEADVILLE, PA)
Good topic, and we’ll see what the readers have to offer. Maybe we’ll have our Ask The Experts panel handle that one at some point this year as well. I will throw out a few. How about adding punters? 2 points for each punt landed inside the 20, and 2 points for finishing with a higher net than the other fantasy team’s punter. Yes, it’s ridiculous. That’s what I like about it – you’re doing something that no other league has. And you’re making the OCD guys in the league waste their time researching punters (punters!). Similarly, can we add 1 point for each touchback for kickers? Add a little dimension in there. Some kickers don’t have good enough legs to handle kickoffs, and I don’t think they should be as valuable.
Question 5
I am in a 12-team league, we award 6 points for all TDs. We have keepers in our league (3-year contracts) and have 15-round draft. How much consideration should be given to looking at what people keep year to year and recent draft history in my league? I have all that at my disposal as a commissioner of the league? It seems for some owners jump on Brady, Brees and Rodgers early. They may make playoffs but have not won it all with them. We start 3 WRs and it seems having 3 good WRs has been a big key lately. Thoughts?
Jay Monahan (CINCINNATI, OH)
I’m with the group that believe quarterbacks are where it’s at. You make touchdown passes worth 6 points, it makes them worth more. I put together an adjusted top 10, using my numbers (you’re also giving points for yards, right?). The top 10 includes five quarterbacks and five running backs. You’ve also got the rules requiring three wide receivers. That increases their value. But they seem more appropriate to come off the board in the second and third rounds.
Question 6
I'm in a one-year keeper league, PPR with 14 teams. I have the 6th pick. I have the ability to trade for Jamaal Charles, who I would keep costing me my second round pick (#23 overall). In return I have to give my 6th round pick (#79 overall). Worth it? Its PPR, plus TDs over 40 yards are double points.
Steve Tortora (WALLINGFORD, CT)
It seems like a good deal to me. At worst, it’s a fair deal. You saw the draft-value chart I put up on Wednesday night, right? Use that same process and look at the relative values of the various draft slots. Using ballpark numbers, I’ve got Charles at 131 adjusted points (forgetting about the 40-yard touchdown rule, that’s his value relative to a baseline running back – about the No. 42 running back). Compare that the players who are Nos. 23 and 79 on the board. I’ve got those guys at 86 and 31 points. So 131 points beats 117 points, and you’re getting all of those points in your lineup in one guy. The deal starts to look more balanced when you factor in that if you stay at 23 and 79, you won’t get those players. Everyone’s draft boards are a little different, so you’ll get maybe the 18th and 66th players. And when you look at numbers in that range, it looks more like a wash. But Charles is a damn nice player, and it sure would be nice to have him in your lineup every week. He’d also give you some drafting flexibility. It would probably get you out of the game of having to force a mid-round pick on a lesser running back.
Question 7
Great job again. Here's my dilemma. I have the 3rd pick in a snake draft. It's a ppr for rbs only keeper league (lose the round you drafted the player in) I've been offered a trade of my 1st and 5th rounders for 2nd and 3rd rounders of the guy who picks 7th overall. We are at this point and neither of us will budge.
Troy Smith (HAMMOND, LA)
I’m not sure of the exact scoring system. And is this is a 10-team league? Seems to be, based on your email. Did you see the PPR draft value chart I posted on Wednesday night? Slightly different scoring rules and league size, but it can be used for ballpark purposes. Using that chart, picks 3 and 43 (the ones you hold right now) are worth 185 relative points. Picks 14 and 27 (the ones you’d be obtaining) are worth 168. So the value doesn’t seem to be there.
Question 8
Assuming Mike Vick will start for HC Chip Kelly's new ground attack in Washington, where would he shake out in a PPR league ranking - what would your projections be? I know you think most NFL defenses will game plan for the read-option in 2013. Thanks from a long-time subscriber.
james AKRIDGE (williamsburg, VA)
If and when Vick becomes the unquestioned starter in Philadelphia, we can move him up to about 15th-17th among quarterbacks. At that point, we can start mulling whether we like him more than Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman – guys like that.
Question 9
Of the following avoid-at-all-cost running backs, which are you most inclined to avoid-at-MOST-cost (i.e. the gambler inside you would take a shot on them): Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, and Rashard Mendenhall?
Adam Faulkner ()
I have no problem drafting Johnson or Murray. Johnson has a better offensive line and a new offense; that will help him. With Murray, he’ll also benefit from a new playcaller, and he can’t keep getting hurt every year, can he? He’s in a contract year, so if he’s got some minor nick, maybe he’ll be more likely to gut it out. Given that he’ll go much later in drafts, Mendenhall seems to be worth a roll of the dice. The Cardinals should tend to rely on one primary back more than most teams.
Question 10
Hey Ian, love your stuff ... I'm in a league with standard rules but we only give a HALF a point per reception. I have the 5th pick and fear that Peterson, Foster, Martin and Charles will be gone. Marshawn Lynch carried me to a title last season, but I'm having trouble pulling the trigger on him this season. Is there a reason you guys are somewhat down on him? And does Bernard Pierce worry you about Ray Rice?
Michael La Plante (LOS ANGELES, CA)
No reason to worry. No. 5 will work just fine. You can take either Rice or Richardson there. Rice is higher on my board. I have more confidence in his ability to stay healthy, and I think he’ll catch a ton of passes. With both Boldin and Pitta gone for the year, they’ll need to rely on him heavily as both a runner and receiver. Pierce is there as well, of course, but with their absence of weapons, I believe Rice will get all the touches he can handle. With Richardson, you’re taking on the question of whether he can stay healthy for 16 games, and he plays for a lesser team. One advantage for TR: you’ll be able to get his handcuff about four rounds cheaper (Pierce will go a lot earlier than Dion Lewis).
Question 11
How much factor do you put into momentum, or a player's second half production from the previous year? I ask because I have the opportunity to keep either Dez Bryant ($35) or Demaryius Thomas ($26) in my $500 cap auction league. I could keep both but I'm opting for CJ Spiller ($14) as my other keeper. Both receivers had amazingly similar years and were only separated by 5 fantasy points in our PPR league. Thomas went 94/1434/10 while Bryant went 92/1382/12. But Bryant had a much better second half going 50/880/10 compared to 49/680/6 for Thomas. Is Bryant ready to challenge Megatron for the #1 WR and who do you like better long term? Romo's health scares me a little bit, even though he has made it through the last two seasons. And what are the chances Manning retires in the next couple years hurting Thomas' prospects?
JIM DILORENZO (GRAYSLAKE, IL)
Second half is a factor. Those are numbers that we calculate, and I look at them for every player. They’re part of the process. You look at second-half stats, cumulative stats, catch percentages, use around the goal-line – all of that stuff. But ultimately, you have to put down a projection for each guy. In this case, I think Bryant is a clear notch ahead of Thomas, who might finish 3rd in TD catches on his own team (they have Welker and Decker on that roster, right?). To me, Bryant is in that top tier of receivers this year, along with Megatron, A.J. Green and maybe Brandon Marshall. With Manning being right at the end of the road, Thomas doesn't gain ground on him in a dynasty format.
Question 12
I'm in a 16-team league. How much trouble am I in with Colin Kaepernick and Matt Flynn as my two QBs? Probably a good chance I will lose in Week 9, but I guess funnier things have happened in fantasy football.
KEVIN DALLAS (COVINGTON, KY)
I wouldn’t worry too much about Week 9. Oakland that week is at home against Philadelphia. Flynn might be just fine in that game. To me, the worry is a Kaepernick injury. If he gets injured somewhere along the line, then you’re stuck relying on Flynn every week.
Question 13
Our league is thinking of ways to tinker with the scoring for kickers. Some owners think kickers are scoring too many points. We give 1 point for PATs, 3 points for FGs and bonuses for distance +1 30-39, +2 40-49, +3 50, etc. To compare, WR's get 5 points for 100 yds and 3 points for TDs. Often times kickers score more than QBs. How would YOU score kickers, perhaps in a way that would make using a middle round draft pick on a good kicker like Janikowski instead of picking kickers at the end of the draft?
John Brown ()
I like the rule rewarding kickers for longer field goals. That will make guys think a little about selecting the likes of Janikowski, Walsh and Legatron. Can we also add a point for each touchback? If a player has a stronger leg, he's more valuable to his NFL team, so why not reward that? Using touchbacks would not only enhance guys like Janikowski and Walsh, it would also be a big turnoff for the guys who clearly can't get touchbacks -- Matt Bryant, Shaun Suisham.
Question 14
Long time subscriber. Love the magazine. Keeper question. I can keep four players, but one has to be a rookie from last season. The cost of keeping the player is the round the player was drafted last season. UDFAs cost a last (19th) round pick. You can keep a player three times. This is the first year with keepers. (1) Chris Johnson (2) Julio Jones (3) DeMarco Murray (4) Jordy Nelson (5) Peyton Manning (6) Eric Decker (8) Jason Witten (13) Kendall Wright (14) David Wilson, Jared Cook (19) Danario Alexander, Bryce Brown, Josh Gordon, Russell Wilson I think that Russell Wilson and David Wilson are no brainers. Any advice?
John Evans (PENSACOLA, FL)
If nobody kept anybody, where would the players go? That’s the question. Which ones would move up the most in value? Julio Jones, for example, is a nice player, but he’s going to be selected in the second round; no reason to even consider him. In my eyes, the obvious two are the Wilson brothers. Next in line are Jared Cook and Josh Gordon (I’m assuming that if you keep two from the same round, you just lose the pick in the preceding round – so they’d cost a 13th and an 18th). If Kendall Wright plays well in the postseason, he could play his way into consideration.
Question 15
In a dynasty format, I have been offered Montee Ball for Dwayne Bowe. It is not a PPR league. What are your thoughts on trading a solid receiver now for an up and coming running back. FYI my receivers are Fitzgerald, James Jones, Vincent Jackson and Bowe. RB are Charles and Mendenhall.
dan renzi (MOORESTOWN, NJ)
You could use another running back. You have depth at wide receiver. A trade makes sense. The price for Ball will go up a whole bunch in a week or two if and when he becomes the starter there. I think he will be the starter there, so I’d make the deal.
Question 16
Hi Ian-stein- Long time reader, first time writer. My question is about our auction...how much money in % would you commit to each position? We have a 12-team league, 1QB, 1RB, 1RB/WR, 2WR's, 1TE, 1D, and 1K. We also pay out money each week for the highest player and highest team...which means people "overspend" on the top 5-10 players at each position because you can make a lot of money with just 1 or 2 studs even though your team may not be built for a long championship run. I tend to go with value, but if you do that too much, you end up with a lot of mediocre talent. In years past I spent 40%-50% on RB's, about 10%-20% on QB, and 20%-30% on WR's. I always spend 1$ on TE, K, and D. Last year I flipped the percentages on WR and RB since there seemed to be a lot of value at RB. This year I'm thinking I go back to my old formula...what say you? And should I spend more on TE?
Matthew Dolan (PLEASANT HILL, CA)
I don't use percentages for each position. I decide what I think each player is worth, then buy whatever guys wind up being the best deals. Whether that's running backs, quarterbacks or wide receivers is up to the other guys in the auction.
Question 17
Thanks for another championship last year. What are your thoughts on drafting strategy for a 16 team, 16 round draft, PPR, RB/WR flex? I have the 2nd spot and have been going RB-WR-QB in the first 3 rounds of most mock drafts. I've heard some say you should always go Best Player Available in leagues this deep.
Jeffrey Wahl (Massillon, OH)
I think you’ll be looking at a running back with that No. 3 pick, but it’s not a draft slot that I like. How much difference, really, is there if you move down to 4, 5, 6 or 7? Maybe you could move down to the No. 6 slot and pick up an extra 6th-round pick. That would interest me.
Question 18
In a 10 team PPR league where all TD's are worth 6 points. Hence, elite QB's such as Rodgers, Brees and Manning will out score even the most productive RB's. More specifically, by most estimates, Brees will score approximately 483 points (30 points per game) in my league which translates to about 7 to 8 more points a game than Peterson. With that significant of a gap, why not use a #1 on Brees? I have the 5th pick and project Spiller, Charles and Richardson to be available there but each of those guys carry their own set of question marks. Why not go with the safer pick and more productive player? With being in the middle of the draft order, I don't have to wait too long to target a RB in round 2. Or do I bite the bullet, snag an RB and grab Peyton Manning in the 2nd?
Matt Shrader (Tampa, FL)
Agreed. As I mentioned in the earlier letter, I think half of the first 10 picks should be quarterbacks. As the last step of your analysis, however, you need to factor in the behavior of the other nine owners. If most of them aren’t going to take a quarterback in the first or second round, that makes it awfully appealing for you to wait until drafting the position.
Question 19
I am in a two-player keeper league and I have some tough choices. Which two among Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Ray Rice and Rob Gronkowski. I lean to Rice and Newton but the other two are tough to cut.
LEN MIDDLETON (GILBERT, AZ)
Stafford’s gone. He’s not even in the discussion. Rice is definitely a keeper. It comes down, I think, to Gronkowski’s health. If Gronk is healthy, you keep him. If he’s going to be out until October, then go with Newton.
Question 20
12 team keeper league question. We start 3 WRs. PPR. We MUST keep 3 players from last year’s team and forfeit the draft pick of the round a player is kept (Free agents surrender last round pick). Calvin Johnson is a no-brainer 1st round (12 overall), and I have 3 other options. Lynch 3rd round (36th overall) Richardson (37th overall) and Randall Cobb 15th round (178th overall). Conventional wisdom leads me to believe I should keep TR and Lynch with Calvin to nab two number one backs. But Cobb's value is awfully tempting with a PPR. With 36 keepers I see my third round selection in place of Lynch somewhere in the 50's overall. So what it comes down to is Cobb and say the 54th overall pick or Marshawn Lynch. Unloading Lynch could be dangerous because with 36 keepers and no first round pick RB will be awfully thin (although I do have the first pick in the 2nd rd (13th overall). But holding my 1st, 3rd and 4th rd picks means I'll have only one selection until the end of the 5th rd (60th overall). It's a win/win to me but a tough decision.
Sean Quisenberry (ORTONVILLE, MI)
I disagree that ‘conventional wisdom’, as you call it, says to keep Megatron and the two running backs. In my opinion, if you polled 20 fantasy leaguers, at least 19 of them would say that Cobb isn’t only a keeper, but the best keeper option of everyone on your team. He’s a third-round pick, and you’d be getting him for the cost of a 15th. Cobb, Richardson and Megatron. Those are the three keepers in my opinion.
Question 21
What's the value in owning a keeper player? Is it to secure a player you believe is primed for a big season, even if you have to pay at or above his current market value? Or, is it getting the guy you think presents the best value at the cheapest cost? In a 12-team PPR league, our rules require a 50% markup on a player's previous year's salary (i.e. a player cost $12 last year; his markup is $6 meaning his cost this year becomes $18). We run a unique auction/snake draft. The first seven rounds are held as an auction and the rest of the draft is done serpentine style. Managers get $125 million to spend during the auction and by the end of the 7th round, about 75 players are taken off the board. Typically, the top-10 RBs range in price from $25-$50 million and the top-5 WRs range from $20-$30 million (it's much more fun to deal in millions rather than hundreds). I have four keeper assets under consideration: Maurice Jones-Drew at $45m; Trent Richardson at $30m; Larry Fitzgerald at $29m; and A.J. Green @ $24 m. It's difficult to see any of these players' keeper price offering much of a "discount" based off market value from my league. Keeping them becomes be more of a, "I must have this guy" rather than getting a player at a discount. So, what's more valuable: keeping a player at or above his market value for the sake of believing in a solid year, or getting a guy who costs far below his market value in hopes of getting a boost in production?
Adam Faulkner ()
First you need to determine what the players are worth. You can do this with the custom-rankings feature at the website. Click on “Your Stuff” at the website and select the “Scoring Systems” from the drag down. Enter in your scoring rules, tell it you’re in an auction, then carefully set the baselines at each position. Your league is only selecting 75 players, so you can get some good players during this stage for the minimum bid of $1 (or $1 million – whatever it is). After you’ve identified the $1.00 players at each position, the program will calculate the values of the other players, relative to those values. Then it’s a matter of selecting the players who provide the most bang for your buck. If Maurice Jones-Drew is “worth” only $38, there’s no point in protecting him for $45.
Question 22
10 team league with standard scoring. I can keep 3 players and it costs me the round they were drafted in last season. Which 3 out of these 5 would you keep? Foster - 1st Rodgers - 1st (I can keep both Foster and Rodger for 1st and 2nd round picks) Thomas - 5th RG3 - 8th Cobb - 12th I am thinking Cobb is automatic but torn between which other 2 to keep. Having an idea what the other guys in the league will do if I do not keep Foster the best RB available to me would probably be Forte or Chris Johnson.
Chris Holland ()
Agreed. Cobb’s a no-brainer. Foster and Demaryius Thomas, I think, are the other two.