Halfway through the preseason, Ian Allan has seen every team twice. Handicapping each of the 256 regular-season games, he believes the Patriots and Seahawks will finish with the most regular-season wins, with the Broncos and 49ers close behind.
For those who haven't seen it in previous years, this isn't a deal where I just say, "Well, the Patriots look like a team that will win 13 games; I'll put them down for 13-3". For this process, I go through each of the regular-season games and forecast a winner.
A partial winner, actually. If the game looks like a 50-50 type game, I just give each team half of a win. If the Patriots are at home against the Jaguars or Jets, then I would give them about 90 percent of a win for that one.
Using this process, the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens and Colts finish as the AFC division winners. The Bengals and Texans are the wild cards (and actually, by my numbers, Houston actually finished in a dead heat with the Colts in the South, so I just picked a winner).
On the NFC side, it's Seahawks, Packers, Saints and Giants. The 49ers and Falcons are the wild cards. For Seattle, it's at wide receiver where they look a lot better than San Francisco. The 49ers will miss Michael Crabtree a lot more than the Seahawks will miss Percy Harvin.
Lots of interesting games on the schedule this year. Andy Reid will take Kansas City into Philadelphia, and Mike Shanahan goes back to Denver for the first time. There's a Manning Bowl, and Peyton Manning also heads back to Indianapolis for a Vadar-Skywalker battle with Andrew Luck.
Notable game in Week 2: Jacksonville at Oakland. Loser gets the inside track to select Jadeveon Clowney next spring.
| PROJECTED WIN TOTALS IN 2013 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss |
| New England | 11.8 | 4.2 |
| Seattle | 10.6 | 5.4 |
| Denver | 10.2 | 5.8 |
| San Francisco | 10.1 | 5.9 |
| Baltimore | 9.6 | 6.4 |
| Green Bay | 9.6 | 6.5 |
| New Orleans | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| Cincinnati | 9.4 | 6.6 |
| NY Giants | 9.2 | 6.8 |
| Indianapolis | 9.1 | 7.0 |
| Houston | 9.1 | 7.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| Atlanta | 8.7 | 7.4 |
| Washington | 8.4 | 7.7 |
| Philadelphia | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Tennessee | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| Kansas City | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Dallas | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| Chicago | 7.8 | 8.2 |
| St. Louis | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| Carolina | 7.2 | 8.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 7.1 | 9.0 |
| Minnesota | 6.9 | 9.1 |
| Buffalo | 6.9 | 9.2 |
| San Diego | 6.8 | 9.3 |
| Detroit | 6.4 | 9.6 |
| Cleveland | 6.4 | 9.7 |
| Miami | 6.3 | 9.8 |
| Arizona | 5.8 | 10.3 |
| NY Jets | 5.4 | 10.7 |
| Jacksonville | 5.1 | 11.0 |
| Oakland | 4.7 | 11.4 |
IAN’S REGULAR-SEASON FORECAST
Week 1
New England 75% at Buffalo 25%
Seattle 60% at Carolina 40%
Houston 55% at San Diego 45%
Kansas City 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Cincinnati 50% at Chicago 50%
NY Giants 50% at Dallas 50%
Minnesota 45% at Detroit 55%
Tampa Bay 45% at NY Jets 55%
Baltimore 40% at Denver 60%
Green Bay 40% at San Francisco 60%
Miami 40% at Cleveland 60%
Philadelphia 40% at Washington 60%
Atlanta 35% at New Orleans 65%
Tennessee 35% at Pittsburgh 65%
Arizona 30% at St. Louis 70%
Oakland 15% at Indianapolis 85%
Week 2
New Orleans 50% at Tampa Bay 50%
Dallas 45% at Kansas City 55%
Denver 45% at NY Giants 55%
Jacksonville 45% at Oakland 55%
Minnesota 45% at Chicago 55%
Carolina 40% at Buffalo 60%
Detroit 40% at Arizona 60%
Pittsburgh 40% at Cincinnati 60%
Washington 40% at Green Bay 60%
San Diego 35% at Philadelphia 65%
San Francisco 35% at Seattle 65%
Tennessee 35% at Houston 65%
St. Louis 30% at Atlanta 70%
Cleveland 25% at Baltimore 75%
Miami 20% at Indianapolis 80%
NY Jets 5% at New England 95%
Week 3
Atlanta 60% at Miami 40%
NY Giants 55% at Carolina 45%
Buffalo 45% at NY Jets 55%
Green Bay 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Chicago 40% at Pittsburgh 60%
Cleveland 40% at Minnesota 60%
Houston 40% at Baltimore 60%
Kansas City 40% at Philadelphia 60%
San Diego 35% at Tennessee 65%
St. Louis 35% at Dallas 65%
Detroit 30% at Washington 70%
Indianapolis 30% at San Francisco 70%
Arizona 15% at New Orleans 85%
Tampa Bay 10% at New England 90%
Jacksonville 5% at Seattle 95%
Oakland 5% at Denver 95%
Week 4
Washington 65% at Oakland 35%
Cincinnati 60% at Cleveland 40%
Indianapolis 60% at Jacksonville 40%
New England 60% at Atlanta 40%
Baltimore 55% at Buffalo 45%
NY Giants 55% at Kansas City 45%
Pittsburgh 55% vs. Minnesota 45%
Chicago 50% at Detroit 50%
Dallas 50% at San Diego 50%
San Francisco 50% at St. Louis 50%
Seattle 45% at Houston 55%
Arizona 30% at Tampa Bay 70%
Philadelphia 30% at Denver 70%
NY Jets 20% at Tennessee 80%
Miami 15% at New Orleans 85%
Week 5
Baltimore 60% at Miami 40%
Denver 55% at Dallas 45%
New England 55% at Cincinnati 45%
Buffalo 50% at Cleveland 50%
New Orleans 50% at Chicago 50%
San Diego 50% at Oakland 50%
Seattle 50% at Indianapolis 50%
Carolina 45% at Arizona 55%
Philadelphia 45% at NY Giants 55%
Kansas City 40% at Tennessee 60%
Houston 35% at San Francisco 65%
Jacksonville 25% at St. Louis 75%
Detroit 10% at Green Bay 90%
NY Jets 10% at Atlanta 90%
Week 6
Pittsburgh 60% at NY Jets 40%
Cincinnati 55% at Buffalo 45%
Indianapolis 50% at San Diego 50%
NY Giants 50% at Chicago 50%
Washington 45% at Dallas 55%
Carolina 40% at Minnesota 60%
Detroit 40% at Cleveland 60%
Green Bay 40% at Baltimore 60%
Philadelphia 40% at Tampa Bay 60%
St. Louis 35% at Houston 65%
New Orleans 30% at New England 70%
Oakland 30% at Kansas City 70%
Tennessee 15% at Seattle 85%
Arizona 10% at San Francisco 90%
Jacksonville 5% at Denver 95%
Week 7
New England 90% at NY Jets 10%
Seattle 65% at Arizona 35%
San Francisco 55% at Tennessee 45%
Cincinnati 50% at Detroit 50%
Denver 50% at Indianapolis 50%
Houston 50% at Kansas City 50%
San Diego 50% at Jacksonville 50%
Baltimore 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
Chicago 45% at Washington 55%
Buffalo 40% at Miami 60%
Dallas 40% at Philadelphia 60%
St. Louis 40% at Carolina 60%
Tampa Bay 35% at Atlanta 65%
Minnesota 25% at NY Giants 75%
Cleveland 15% at Green Bay 85%
Week 8
Pittsburgh 65% at Oakland 35%
Atlanta 55% at Arizona 45%
Seattle 55% at St. Louis 45%
Green Bay 50% at Minnesota 50%
Carolina 45% at Tampa Bay 55%
Dallas 45% at Detroit 55%
NY Giants 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Cleveland 40% at Kansas City 60%
Washington 40% at Denver 60%
Buffalo 20% at New Orleans 80%
Miami 20% at New England 80%
NY Jets 10% at Cincinnati 90%
San Francisco 85% vs. Jacksonville 15%
Week 9
New Orleans 65% at NY Jets 35%
Baltimore 60% at Cleveland 40%
Cincinnati 60% at Miami 40%
Philadelphia 60% at Oakland 40%
Atlanta 45% at Carolina 55%
Indianapolis 45% at Houston 55%
Kansas City 45% at Buffalo 55%
Minnesota 40% at Dallas 60%
Tennessee 40% at St. Louis 60%
Chicago 35% at Green Bay 65%
San Diego 30% at Washington 70%
Pittsburgh 25% at New England 75%
Tampa Bay 15% at Seattle 85%
Week 10
Denver 60% at San Diego 40%
Houston 60% at Arizona 40%
Cincinnati 45% at Baltimore 55%
Seattle 45% at Atlanta 55%
Washington 45% at Minnesota 55%
St. Louis 40% at Indianapolis 60%
Miami 35% at Tampa Bay 65%
Philadelphia 30% at Green Bay 70%
Buffalo 25% at Pittsburgh 75%
Detroit 25% at Chicago 75%
Jacksonville 25% at Tennessee 75%
Dallas 20% at New Orleans 80%
Carolina 15% at San Francisco 85%
Oakland 5% at NY Giants 95%
Week 11
New England 65% at Carolina 35%
Baltimore 55% at Chicago 45%
Atlanta 50% at Tampa Bay 50%
Indianapolis 50% at Tennessee 50%
Arizona 45% at Jacksonville 55%
San Francisco 45% at New Orleans 55%
Washington 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Green Bay 40% at NY Giants 60%
San Diego 40% at Miami 60%
Kansas City 35% at Denver 65%
NY Jets 35% at Buffalo 65%
Detroit 25% at Pittsburgh 75%
Cleveland 20% at Cincinnati 80%
Minnesota 15% at Seattle 85%
Oakland 10% at Houston 90%
Week 12
Tennessee 60% at Oakland 40%
Indianapolis 55% at Arizona 45%
Pittsburgh 55% at Cleveland 45%
San Francisco 55% at Washington 45%
Carolina 45% at Miami 55%
Chicago 45% at St. Louis 55%
New Orleans 45% at Atlanta 55%
Dallas 40% at NY Giants 60%
Tampa Bay 40% at Detroit 60%
Denver 35% at New England 65%
San Diego 35% at Kansas City 65%
Minnesota 25% at Green Bay 75%
Jacksonville 15% at Houston 85%
NY Jets 5% at Baltimore 95%
Week 13
Green Bay 60% at Detroit 40%
New England 60% at Houston 40%
Atlanta 55% at Buffalo 45%
Cincinnati 55% at San Diego 45%
Denver 55% at Kansas City 45%
Chicago 45% at Minnesota 55%
Miami 45% at NY Jets 55%
NY Giants 45% at Washington 55%
Pittsburgh 40% at Baltimore 60%
Tampa Bay 40% at Carolina 60%
Arizona 35% at Philadelphia 65%
Jacksonville 35% at Cleveland 65%
Tennessee 35% at Indianapolis 65%
New Orleans 30% at Seattle 70%
St. Louis 25% at San Francisco 75%
Oakland 15% at Dallas 85%
Week 14
Houston 60% at Jacksonville 40%
NY Giants 55% at San Diego 45%
Seattle 45% at San Francisco 55%
St. Louis 45% at Arizona 55%
Buffalo 40% at Tampa Bay 60%
Dallas 40% at Chicago 60%
Kansas City 40% at Washington 60%
Atlanta 35% at Green Bay 65%
Detroit 35% at Philadelphia 65%
Indianapolis 35% at Cincinnati 65%
Tennessee 35% at Denver 65%
Carolina 30% at New Orleans 70%
Miami 25% at Pittsburgh 75%
Oakland 25% at NY Jets 75%
Minnesota 15% at Baltimore 85%
Cleveland 10% at New England 90%
Week 15
New England 75% at Miami 25%
Baltimore 55% at Detroit 45%
Buffalo 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Kansas City 55% at Oakland 45%
San Francisco 55% at Tampa Bay 45%
Chicago 50% at Cleveland 50%
Green Bay 50% at Dallas 50%
Cincinnati 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
Houston 45% at Indianapolis 55%
New Orleans 45% at St. Louis 55%
Seattle 45% at NY Giants 55%
Philadelphia 40% at Minnesota 60%
Washington 35% at Atlanta 65%
NY Jets 30% at Carolina 70%
Arizona 25% at Tennessee 75%
San Diego 15% at Denver 85%
Week 16
NY Giants 55% at Detroit 45%
Tennessee 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Indianapolis 50% at Kansas City 50%
Denver 45% at Houston 55%
New England 45% at Baltimore 55%
New Orleans 45% at Carolina 55%
Chicago 40% at Philadelphia 60%
Cleveland 40% at NY Jets 60%
Dallas 40% at Washington 60%
Miami 40% at Buffalo 60%
Oakland 40% at San Diego 60%
Pittsburgh 35% at Green Bay 65%
Tampa Bay 35% at St. Louis 65%
Atlanta 30% at San Francisco 70%
Minnesota 30% at Cincinnati 70%
Arizona 10% at Seattle 90%
Week 17
Denver 80% at Oakland 20%
San Francisco 60% at Arizona 40%
Green Bay 55% at Chicago 45%
Houston 50% at Tennessee 50%
Kansas City 50% at San Diego 50%
Baltimore 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Philadelphia 45% at Dallas 55%
Washington 45% at NY Giants 55%
Carolina 40% at Atlanta 60%
Cleveland 35% at Pittsburgh 65%
Detroit 35% at Minnesota 65%
NY Jets 35% at Miami 65%
Tampa Bay 30% at New Orleans 70%
St. Louis 25% at Seattle 75%
Jacksonville 15% at Indianapolis 85%
Buffalo 10% at New England 90%