Matt Forte, David Wilson and Chris Johnson are all averaging over 7 yards per carry in the preseason. But will they be any good in the real games? Ian Allan looks at the wacky world of preseason production.
As we like to do in these situations, it's always nice to look at the historical numbers. What has happened when similar players have entered recent seasons under similar circumstances? Have they been any good?
I did a similar thing with quarterbacks a couple of days ago. This time it's running backs that are the focus.
I decided to pull out all running backs who've carried the ball at least 10 times and also averaged over 5.0 yards per carry. This is the last four years (2010-2013). And they're in descending order. Matt Forte, remarkably, has averaged 10 yards per carry in the preseason TWICE. He's the top guy. Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews and Ben Tate are the other guys over 7. The remaining guys are an equal split of being in the 5-plus and 6-plus range.
Notice that Jordan Todman isn't on the list; he's averaging 8.2 this year for the Jaguars. I went with only relevant running backs -- guys in the mix to start games. Including all the backups and backups to the backups just confusing things.
So the numbers you see in the chart below show the number of games the guy started, how many total yards (run+rec) he averaged in those games, and how many TDs he averaged (4 TDs in 5 games would be .80). The last number shows his "rank" in comparison with other backs who started at least half of the season. If the player started fewer than eight games, there's a squiggle mark -- it shows how he would rank against those guys who started 8 games.
Notice with this August Rock Stars, that there are not a lot who continued to dominate in the regular season. Three really good ones -- Alfred Morris last year, and Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster in 2010. They were all in the top 5. But none of the other running backs placed in the top 10.
BACKS AVERAGING OVER 5 YARDS PER CARRY | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Playa | St | Yds | TD | Rnk |
2010 | Matt Forte | 16 | 101 | .56 | 13 |
2013 | Matt Forte | ||||
2010 | Jahvid Best | 9 | 82 | .56 | 21 |
2013 | David Wilson | ||||
2011 | Ryan Mathews | 14 | 110 | .43 | 11 |
2013 | Chris Johnson | ||||
2011 | Ben Tate | 3 | 109 | .67 | ~8 |
2011 | Tim Hightower | 5 | 80 | .40 | ~21 |
2010 | Jamaal Charles | 16 | 121 | .50 | 5 |
2011 | Felix Jones | 8 | 75 | .13 | 32 |
2010 | Ricky Williams | 16 | 51 | .19 | 39 |
2011 | Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 50 | .57 | 30 |
2013 | Rashard Mendenhall | ||||
2010 | Arian Foster | 16 | 139 | 1.13 | 1 |
2010 | Joseph Addai | 7 | 81 | .43 | ~25 |
2010 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 15 | 85 | .40 | 24 |
2012 | Peyton Hillis | 13 | 29 | .08 | 36 |
2012 | Roy Helu | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
2010 | Reggie Bush | 8 | 45 | .13 | 43 |
2013 | C.J. Spiller | ||||
2013 | Stevan Ridley | ||||
2012 | Steven Jackson | 16 | 85 | .25 | 23 |
2012 | Fred Jackson | 10 | 65 | .40 | 27 |
2012 | Alfred Morris | 16 | 106 | .81 | 5 |
There's also the issue of struggling running backs. Many running backs like to take it easy in the preseason and some don't play at all. Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin didn't carry the ball at all last August, and they were both very good.
But this chart shows guys who carried the ball at least 10 times and still averaged under 3 yards. What to make of these guys?
Reggie Bush, for example, has been remarkably bad this year for the Lions. He's carried the ball 17 times and gained only 21 yards. (He might be better just following Peterson's lead and not playing at all.)
For these kind of backs (again, 10+ carries and still poor) notice that there hasn't been much success in the regular season. C.J. Spiller (7th) and Chris Johnson (9th) and Rashard Mendenhall managed to crack the top 10. That's it. Only five others finished in the teens. The other 14 finished 20th or lower.
Not saying you should read too much into preseason games. Just saying.
BACKS AVERAGING UNDER 3 YARDS PER CARRY | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Playa | St | Yds | TD | Rnk |
2013 | Reggie Bush | ||||
2010 | Donald Brown | 7 | 76 | .14 | ~32 |
2010 | Marion Barber | 13 | 33 | .31 | 44 |
2011 | Donald Brown | 2 | 44 | .00 | ~39 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles | ||||
2013 | Chris Ivory | ||||
2010 | Ronnie Brown | 16 | 61 | .31 | 34 |
2010 | Chris Johnson | 16 | 101 | .75 | 9 |
2011 | LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 66 | .36 | 28 |
2012 | Mikel Leshoure | 14 | 72 | .64 | 18 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy | ||||
2011 | Jamaal Charles | 2 | 46 | .50 | ~34 |
2012 | Donald Brown | 4 | 69 | .25 | ~30 |
2013 | DeAngelo Williams | ||||
2010 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 52 | .69 | 25 |
2012 | Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 55 | .22 | 33 |
2012 | Michael Turner | 16 | 58 | .69 | 24 |
2010 | Rashard Mendenhall | 16 | 90 | .81 | 10 |
2013 | Daniel Thomas | ||||
2011 | Jonathan Stewart | 16 | 73 | .31 | 26 |
2011 | Willis McGahee | 14 | 87 | .36 | 19 |
2010 | Beanie Wells | 13 | 36 | .15 | 45 |
2012 | Chris Johnson | 16 | 92 | .38 | 17 |