Looking at all of the recent in-season Thursday games, Ian Allan comes to the conclusion that games are lower scoring when they involve two teams that know each other. And he rolls out the data to support that premise.
This is a followup to an idea I raised in the capsule previewing the Bears-Giants game. With those previews, there are time restrictions -- all of the capsules and player forecasts must be completed by Wednesday morning, so I've got to keep moving along.
But now that that first-draft capsules are completed, let me go back and look at the concept more thoroughly. And upon doing so, I can present it in a better way and say with even more conviction: When we talk about a tendency for Thursday games to be lower scoring, what's actually at play is simply more games against opponents who are familiar with each other's scheme and personnel.
Look at the Thursday night games since the NFL Network started broadcasting them. (And with these games, I'm looking just at in-season games -- season openers are different, since there's no preceding game.)
For the 31 games featuring two teams from the same division, those games averaged only 39.5 points. So those games tended to be low scoring -- not all of them, but many of them.
Look, however, at the 39 games featuring teams from different divisions. Those games averaged 48.1 points -- an increase of 8.6 points per game (or 4.3 per team per game). That's a huge difference.
There are exceptions on both sides, of course. You get two great offenses together, and you'll get points. You get two tough defenses together, and it will be lower scoring. But in general, when you have two teams from the same division playing on a Thursday, it will tend to be lower scoring than comparable teams from different division. Not every team, but often.
So with the Thursday deal, I see no reason why there won't be plenty of points in the game this week between the Giants and Bears. The lower-scoring Thursday games should come the next two weeks, when Seattle is at Arizona and Carolina plays at Tampa Bay.
| THURSDAY GAMES / INSIDE DIVISION | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Winner | Loser |
| 2006 | San Francisco 24, | at Seattle 14 |
| 2006 | at Green Bay 9, | Minnesota 7 |
| 2006 | at Cincinnati 13, | Baltimore 7 |
| 2006 | at Kansas City 19, | Denver 10 |
| 2006 | at Pittsburgh 27, | Cleveland 7 |
| 2007 | Green Bay 37, | at Detroit 26 |
| 2008 | Indianapolis 31, | at Jacksonville 24 |
| 2008 | NY Jets 34, | at New England 31 |
| 2008 | at Pittsburgh 27, | Cincinnati 10 |
| 2008 | at San Diego 34, | Oakland 7 |
| 2009 | Green Bay 34, | at Detroit 12 |
| 2009 | NY Jets 19, | at Buffalo 13 |
| 2009 | Indianapolis 35, | at Jacksonville 31 |
| 2009 | at Cleveland 13, | Pittsburgh 6 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis 30, | at Tennessee 28 |
| 2011 | Green Bay 27, | at Detroit 15 |
| 2011 | Oakland 24, | at San Diego 17 |
| 2011 | at Pittsburgh 14, | Cleveland 3 |
| 2012 | New England 49, | at NY Jets 19 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis 27, | at Jacksonville 10 |
| 2012 | Denver 26, | at Oakland 13 |
| 2012 | Washington 38, | at Dallas 31 |
| 2012 | at Buffalo 19, | Miami 14 |
| 2012 | at Baltimore 23, | Cleveland 16 |
| 2012 | at San Francisco 13, | Seattle 6 |
| 2012 | at Atlanta 23, | New Orleans 13 |
| 2012 | at Green Bay 23, | Chicago 10 |
| 2012 | at St. Louis 17, | Arizona 3 |
| 2012 | at San Diego 31, | Kansas City 13 |
| 2013 | San Francisco 35, | at St. Louis 11 |
| 2013 | at New England 13, | NY Jets 10 |
| THURSDAY GAMES / OUTSIDE DIVISION | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Winner | Loser |
| 2006 | Miami 27, | at Detroit 10 |
| 2006 | at Dallas 38, | Tampa Bay 10 |
| 2007 | Indianapolis 31, | at Atlanta 13 |
| 2007 | Pittsburgh 41, | at St. Louis 24 |
| 2007 | at Washington 24, | Chicago 16 |
| 2007 | at Dallas 37, | Green Bay 27 |
| 2007 | at Houston 31, | Denver 13 |
| 2007 | at Dallas 34, | NY Jets 3 |
| 2008 | Tennessee 47, | at Detroit 10 |
| 2008 | Denver 34, | at Cleveland 30 |
| 2008 | at Chicago 27, | New Orleans 24 |
| 2008 | at Dallas 34, | Seattle 9 |
| 2008 | at Philadelphia 48, | Arizona 20 |
| 2009 | San Diego 42, | at Tennessee 17 |
| 2009 | Miami 24, | at Carolina 17 |
| 2009 | at San Francisco 10, | Chicago 6 |
| 2009 | at Dallas 24, | Oakland 7 |
| 2009 | at Denver 26, | NY Giants 6 |
| 2010 | New England 45, | at Detroit 24 |
| 2010 | Chicago 16, | at Miami 0 |
| 2010 | New Orleans 30, | at Dallas 27 |
| 2010 | at Atlanta 26, | Baltimore 21 |
| 2010 | at Philadelphia 34, | Houston 24 |
| 2010 | at NY Jets 26, | Cincinnati 10 |
| 2010 | at Pittsburgh 27, | Carolina 3 |
| 2010 | at San Diego 34, | San Francisco 7 |
| 2011 | at Dallas 20, | Miami 19 |
| 2011 | at Indianapolis 19, | Houston 16 |
| 2011 | at Denver 17, | NY Jets 13 |
| 2011 | at Baltimore 16, | San Francisco 6 |
| 2011 | at Seattle 31, | Philadelphia 14 |
| 2011 | at Atlanta 41, | Jacksonville 14 |
| 2012 | NY Giants 36, | at Carolina 7 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati 34, | at Philadelphia 13 |
| 2012 | Tampa Bay 36, | at Minnesota 17 |
| 2012 | Houston 34, | at Detroit 31 |
| 2012 | at Tennessee 26, | Pittsburgh 23 |
| 2013 | Kansas City 26, | at Philadelphia 16 |
| 2013 | at Cleveland 37, | Buffalo 24 |