Fantasy Index

Fantasy Football Index publisher Ian Allan answers your questions about fantasy football. Click here to submit a question.

Mailbag

Mailbag for October 18, 2013

Ian Allan answers all of your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What can we expect from Josh Freeman in the final 10 weeks of the season? Is Jacksonville the worst team in NFL history? Is now the time to move on Shane Vereen? And much, much more.

Question 1

Do you think Jacksonville is the worst team in NFL history?

Dan Hass (TULSA, OK)

It’s way too early, in my opinion, to even put Jacksonville in the discussion for worst team ever. To even merit consideration, they’ll have to lose another 10 straight games. That’s hard to do. They’ve got a few good players. Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts III, Justin Blackmon – that’s not the type of talent you typically see on a truly hapless team. I expect they’ll win a game or two before we’re through. If they don’t win two of their remaining games, then we can start talking about this as one of the 10 worst teams of the last 50 years. Before is the list of all teams failing to win at least 2 games since the merger in 1970. The expansion Bucs look pretty solid in the top spot – 0-14, and they were outscored by over 20 points per game. I will grant that the Jaguars thus far have been outscored by more points (per game) than any of these teams, but I don’t expect that will hold.

FEWER THAN 2 WINS (SINCE MERGER)
YearTeamRecordPointsAllowedDiff
1976Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-148.929.420.5
2008Detroit Lions0-1616.832.315.6
2013Jacksonville Jaguars0-611.733.021.3
1982Baltimore Colts0-8-112.626.213.7
1973Houston Oilers1-1314.231.917.7
1990New England Patriots1-1511.327.916.6
2009St. Louis Rams1-1510.927.316.3
1972Houston Oilers1-1311.727.115.4
1971Buffalo Bills1-1313.128.115.0
1991Indianapolis Colts1-158.923.814.9
1980New Orleans Saints1-1518.230.412.3
1982Houston Oilers1-1515.127.212.1
1989Dallas Cowboys1-1512.824.611.8
1996New York Jets1-1517.428.410.9
2000San Diego Chargers1-1516.827.510.7
2007Miami Dolphins1-1516.727.310.6
2001Carolina Panthers1-1515.825.69.8

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Question 2

Thanks, Ian for this space to ask questions intended to fix by black hole WR group (Amendola, Edelman, Wallace, Givens). Your thoughts on the impact of Freeman in Minnesota helping Jennings out? And what might be the value of Randle if Nicks did get moved?

MARK CLURE (MOUNT SHASTA, CA)

Is Freeman going to help anyone there? Or he is just another erratic passer thrown into the mix? When his run in Tampa Bay came to a close, it looked like he was having problems with accuracy and decision making. He seems to be one of those guys who’s just trying to run the play. When the safeties are split and the nickel back moves up to the line of scrimmage on the weak side, does he have the wherewithal to know that means the linebackers are going to rotate, meaning the throw shouldn’t go to the tight end, like it’s drawn up, but instead should be a pass to the running back in the flat? (And to clarify: I’ve never played quarterback at any level – I’m just trying to paint a picture.) Freeman seems to be down in the Cassel/Ponder class. Does he see the game? I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s anything other than very ordinary. I haven’t seen him connecting on big throws downfield, converting big throws on third downs or putting the ball in tight ends. Maybe he’ll prove otherwise on Monday night. You have to like that he’s going up against a soft New York defense in his first start. But until I actually see something on the field, I’m moving forward as if Freeman won’t help that passing game much. As for Randle, he’s a guy that will interest me very much if some team decides to trade for Nicks. But the chances of that actually happening, I think, are slim.

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Question 3

What week should we try and make a waiver wire move for Shane Vereen? I see that you've got him ranked surprisingly high on your redrafter. It seems abnormally high to be honest, given that he cannot return until Week 11.

Andrew Napoli (SPRINGFIELD, VA)

He should be on a roster right now, in my opinion. With his catch-run skillset, he’s a really nice fit with that offense. He’s going to come back out of that Week 10 bye and make a big impact down the stretch. He’s a lot more versatile than Stevan Ridley. But I don’t want to turn it into a debate of Ridley or Vereen, because that’s like debating whether Darren Sproles or Jimmy Graham is the guy who catches passes in New Orleans. Both Ridley and Vereen will play. Ridley is a “running back”. He’ll average 60-70 rushing yards per game and score about half of their rushing touchdowns. Vereen is a Sproles-type guy. In those final seven games, I expect he’ll average 30-50 yards per game as a runner and another 30-40 as a pass catcher. Many times I’ve seen them motion him out into a wide receiver position, or he’ll sprint out of the backfield and run a receiver-like routes. He had the 83-yard touchdown against the Jets last year in the Butt Bowl game. He caught a pair of touchdowns against Houston in the playoffs, and I think I saw him catch in a preseason game on a deal where he made a receiver-like catch. No way should Vereen being sitting available in a fantasy league, in my opinion.

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Question 4

I agree with Murillo's article about being open-minded about trying a new type of league, so maybe I am missing something. But I can't understand for the life of me why you would increase the value of a play that gains zero to five yards by 200% to 1000% over a running play with the same result. What am I missing?

PHIL KEIL (POTTSVILLE, PA)

Agreed. In a PPR format, a player who runs for 90 yards is worth less than a running back who runs for 30 yards and catches 4 passes for 25 yards. That doesn’t seem right.

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Question 5

Who is least valuable going forward in std scoring league: Powell (NYJ), Amendola (NE), Cameron (CLE)?

Robert Kurek (BLACKSBURG, VA)

Strange to say, but Amendola. I worry about the concussion he suffered in the New Orleans game. Looks like he was knocked out before he even hit the ground. No way is he playing this week, and I’d say he’s iffy for Week 8 as well – we’ll see. Cameron is a top-level tight end, you have to keep him. Call me crazy, but I kind of like Bilal Powell this week. New England’s defense is really banged up, particularly up front – no Vince Wilfork, no Tommy Kelly and no Jerod Mayo. (No Aqib Talib either). I think the Jets will try to go ground-and-pound against that defense, and I think they might have some success. Like Powell this week.

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Question 6

Can Justin Blackmon continue producing at such a high level? How will the QB situation in Jacksonville impact his value going forward? I was offered Darren Sproles for Blackmon in a 1/2 PPR league - am I crazy if I don't take it?

PK (SAINT JOSEPH, MI)

I think they have similar value. If you’re starving for a running back, it’s a deal you can consider. If your need is at wide receiver, you keep Blackmon. He’s not going to continue to crank out 130-plus yards per week, of course, but he’s their clear No. 1 guy. I think he’ll be fine if Chad Henne starts the majority of their remaining games. If they try force Blaine Gabbert into the lineup for 5-6 of their remaining games, then you’ll wish you’d gotten Sproles when you had the chance.

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Question 7

In a PPR league where receiving touchdowns are worth twice as much as rushing touchdowns, would you trade away Ray Rice for Arian Foster?

GEORGE ALEXOPOULOS (MT PROSPECT, IL)

Those guys are very similar in value on my board, but I think I’d take Foster. Baltimore hasn’t been able to get its running game going, and Rice isn’t catching as many passes as in previous years. Foster is averaging 31 receiving yards per game; Rice is down at 15. There seems to be a bigger difference between Foster and Ben Tate than there is between Rice and Bernard Pierce.

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Question 8

I traded Moreno and T.Smith for Forte. Too much?

Bill Petilli (LARCHMONT, NY)

Forte catches lots of passes. That works in your favor. But giving up Moreno and Torrey Smith, that’s a big price. Forte right now is outgaining Moreno by 20 yards per game (114-94), but Moreno has outscored him 7-4. As well as the Broncos move the ball, you’ve got to figure they’ll be in the red zone often. I don’t know that Moreno is any better than Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball as a runner, but he blocks a lot better, and that should keep him in the lineup all year long. The Broncos need blocking out of that position – they can’t have Peyton Manning getting hit. They’ve got two games left against Kansas City, which leads the league in sacks right now. You’ve got to figure it will be Moreno on the field for most of those games. Forte is more valuable, but I’m not sure the difference is enough to part with Smith. Smith is on pace to finish the year with over 1,500 receiving yards.

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Question 9

I read where you like L. Bell more than K. Moreno for the rest of the season. I believe I could make that deal straight up (I get Bell). However, I evidently don't see what you do. What makes Bell more attractive the ROS?

Chris Holland ()

I think they look pretty similar in value. Bell is a safer (I think) guy to be on the field as pretty much a full-time guy. He’ll catch some balls and log the vast majority of their carries. He’s definitely their clear No. 1 back for as long as he can stay healthy. Moreno is more of a rotational guy. They’re also using Ball and Hillman. On the upside for Moreno, his team is a lot better.

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Question 10

Our 10-team league was converted to a keeper league this year, selecting 2 keepers from last year’s roster one hour prior to the draft. The commish thought it was best to change from an every round snake draft and change the 2 keeper rounds draft order to 1-10,1-10. Therefore, for example, the team with pick 1 has pick 1 in the first 3 rounds. After 5 weeks, the teams with first few draft picks are winning all the games. My thoughts were that the fair way would have been to pick our keepers at the end of the season (for next year) since we did not know last year we would have keepers this year. Also, the draft order should not have been changed. What is the proper way to convert? The commish claims he had restrictions by ESPN's software. Did I mention that one of his keepers is Adrian Peterson? Were we bamboozled? What is the fair way to convert?

Gary Gesnaldo (NAPLES, FL)

Ridiculous. I have no problem with keeper leagues, but if we’re going that route, it needs to be decided on before the marquee guys are selected. That’s going to affect everyone’s draft board. If we knew it was a keeper league, we would all be mulling whether to take a young quarterback like Andrew Luck before win-now guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

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Question 11

Love your product. My team is currently sitting at 5-1 in a 2 keeper 16 team standard scoring league. We start 1 qb 1 rb 2 wr 1 rb/wr flex 1 te 1 kicker 1 defense. My roster is currently: qb: stafford, dalton. Rb: peterson, moreno, morris, Ellington. Wr: torrey smith, ty hilton, amendola and harry douglas. Te: garrett graham. Im looking to improve my team going forward. Since I have 3 good running backs, ive been talking to a team who could improve my tight end situation since he has gronk and julius thomas. Another team is willing to trade me a wide receiver, he has jordy nelson, decker and nicks. Which of my 3 rbs would you suggest I move while keeping in mind the keeper aspect of the league (I kept peterson and morris last year). Thanks!

Eric Lundquist (Carmichael, CA)

It would be awesome to get Gronkowski right before he comes back and starts cranking out touchdowns. Julius Thomas looks solid as well. Knowshon Moreno is the back to more. Solid right now, but what’s he going to do for you in 2014? Sell high.

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Question 12

Flex question: we can start a QB in our flex position in my PPR league. Typically I always start a 2nd QB (Cutler/Wilson). This week in thinking of starting a 4th WR in Antonio Brown. I have Bryant, Marshall, and Blackmon starting. Would you start Brown over Cutler this week?

Marco Tavares (BILLERICA, MA)

I’m not sure what the exact scoring system is. In the PPR rankings I posted as part of the Fantasy Index Weekly, I have Cutler scoring 6 more fantasy points than Brown – 20.8-14.7. So it’s not really even close.

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