Two quarterbacks this week are coming off games with 5 TD passes -- Drew Brees and Andy Dalton. In the case of Brees, it's a rare double goocher; he's also facing a defense that allowed 5 TDs in its last game. But do these kind of quarterbacks tend to ride the wave? Or is it better to move onto somebody new?
Or, do you you simply ignore what happened last week and just look at the matchup?
In the last 10 years, 31 quarterbacks have thrown 5 TDs in a game and then come back and played against in their team's next game. (So, I'm leaving out Kelly Holcomb, who got hurt after his 5 TD game, and Aaron Rodgers, who rested in Week 17 after his).
Of the 31 that meet the specs, only 6 went on to throw 3 or more touchdowns in their next game. That's lower than I would have expected.
Over half of these quarterbacks (17 of 31) either threw 1 TD in their next game or none at all.
So I would advise against operating under the assumption that Dalton and Brees will be throwing 3-4 TDs again this week.
| 5 TD PASSES -- THE NEXT GAME | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Quarterback | Opponent | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2003 | Matt Hasselbeck | W v. Cle. | 328 | 3 | 1 |
| 2003 | Peyton Manning | L v. Den. | 146 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | Aaron Brooks | L at Jac. | 296 | 2 | 0 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper | L at Phi. | 343 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | W at Jac. | 220 | 2 | 1 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper | W at N.O. | 425 | 5 | 2 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper | W v. Ten. | 183 | 1 | 0 |
| 2004 | Drew Brees | W at K.C. | 378 | 2 | 0 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | W v. Min. | 268 | 4 | 0 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | W at Chi. | 211 | 4 | 1 |
| 2004 | Donovan McNabb | W at Was. | 260 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004 | Kerry Collins | L at K.C. | 217 | 2 | 1 |
| 2006 | Matt Hasselbeck | L at Chi. | 196 | 0 | 2 |
| 2006 | Tony Romo | W at NYG | 257 | 0 | 2 |
| 2006 | Drew Brees | L v. Was. | 207 | 0 | 1 |
| 2007 | Derek Anderson | L at Oak. | 248 | 1 | 2 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | W at Mia. | 354 | 6 | 0 |
| 2007 | Ben Roethlisberger | W v. Cle. | 278 | 2 | 1 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | W v. Phi. | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 2009 | Carson Palmer | W v. Bal. | 224 | 1 | 0 |
| 2009 | Kurt Warner | W v. Sea. | 340 | 2 | 0 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | L v. G.B. | 213 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 | Drew Brees | W at Was. | 419 | 2 | 1 |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman | W at N.O. | 255 | 2 | 0 |
| 2011 | Ben Roethlisberger | W v. Jac. | 200 | 1 | 0 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | L at St.L. | 269 | 1 | 2 |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford | L v. G.B. | 276 | 1 | 3 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | W v. Atl. | 307 | 4 | 2 |
| 2012 | Matt Schaub | W at Det. | 315 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Russell Wilson | W at Hou. | 123 | 0 | 1 |
| 2013 | Tony Romo | W v. Was. | 170 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Andy Dalton | at Mia. | |||
| 2013 | Drew Brees | at NYJ | |||
--Ian Allan