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Strength of schedule

Time for schedules to flip

Strength of schedule has a strong impact on win-loss records. You play Seattle, Denver or Kansas City, you're probably going to lose. You play Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, you're probably going to win. A look at some schedules that are going to flip in difficulty at the halfway point of the season.

Before I get into a few observations, I'll give you the charts. For starters, here's the strength of schedule for teams SO FAR. That is, combined win-loss records of opponents in Weeks 1-9.

One slight deal on these. I do them a little differently than others. I'm leaving teams' own games out. Otherwise, it will tend to look like teams like Kansas City and Seattle (which are a combined 17-1) will have played easy schedules, and teams like Jacksonville (0-8) will have played a hard schedule.

On this first one, just the record of how opponents have done in games AGAINST OTHER TEAMS.

Strength of Schedule -- Wins (Weeks 1-9)
TeamWLPct
Carolina2039.339
San Diego2335.397
Kansas City2740.403
Denver2533.431
Baltimore2633.441
Minnesota2632.448
Seattle2935.453
Philadelphia3035.462
St. Louis3035.462
New England3136.463
Chicago2730.474
Pittsburgh2831.475
New Orleans2831.475
Atlanta2831.475
NY Jets3334.493
Detroit3029.508
Cleveland3432.515
Dallas3432.515
Green Bay3028.517
San Francisco3028.517
Oakland3028.517
Arizona3127.534
Miami3327.550
Tampa Bay3327.550
Cincinnati3730.552
Indianapolis3225.561
NY Giants3426.567
Washington3325.569
Tennessee3525.583
Houston3722.627
Buffalo4325.632
Jacksonville3821.644

And to follow that, here's the strength of schedule for the final eight weeks -- the remaining strength of schedule.

Strength of Schedule -- Wins (Weeks 10-17)
TeamWLPct
Detroit2243.338
Buffalo2038.345
Green Bay2640.394
Cincinnati2334.404
Seattle2433.421
Tennessee2836.438
Jacksonville2937.439
Chicago3038.441
NY Jets2632.448
Miami3137.456
Cleveland2732.458
Washington3136.463
San Francisco3135.470
Houston3134.477
Indianapolis3235.478
New England2830.483
Dallas2829.491
Philadelphia2829.491
Arizona3334.493
Pittsburgh3434.500
New Orleans3433.507
Tampa Bay3432.515
Baltimore3731.544
Atlanta3630.545
Carolina3630.545
NY Giants3630.545
Oakland3829.567
Minnesota3928.582
Kansas City3422.607
St. Louis3522.614
Denver4225.627
San Diego4720.701

Comparing the two charts, you'll notice a few things.

The six teams that have played the easiest schedules so far will all play top-10 (difficult) schedules in the second half of the season. Most notably, San Diego goes from 2nd-easiest to No. 1 hardest. Others: Carolina, Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore and Minnesota.

On the other end of the spectrum, five of the 10 teams that have played the hardest schedules will now play easy (top-10 easy) schedules. That group is headlined by Jacksonville, Buffalo and Tennessee, and also includes Cincinnati and Miami.

Only one team played a top-10 easy schedule in the first half and projects to do so again: Seattle (7th thus far, and should be 5th in the remaining eight weeks).

One one team played a bottom-10 (hard) schedule in the first half and projects to do so again: the Giants. Only five teams have played harder schedules so far, and only six project to be harder the rest of the way.

--Ian Allan

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