Strength of schedule has a strong impact on win-loss records. You play Seattle, Denver or Kansas City, you're probably going to lose. You play Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, you're probably going to win. A look at some schedules that are going to flip in difficulty at the halfway point of the season.
Before I get into a few observations, I'll give you the charts. For starters, here's the strength of schedule for teams SO FAR. That is, combined win-loss records of opponents in Weeks 1-9.
One slight deal on these. I do them a little differently than others. I'm leaving teams' own games out. Otherwise, it will tend to look like teams like Kansas City and Seattle (which are a combined 17-1) will have played easy schedules, and teams like Jacksonville (0-8) will have played a hard schedule.
On this first one, just the record of how opponents have done in games AGAINST OTHER TEAMS.
| Strength of Schedule -- Wins (Weeks 1-9) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| Carolina | 20 | 39 | .339 |
| San Diego | 23 | 35 | .397 |
| Kansas City | 27 | 40 | .403 |
| Denver | 25 | 33 | .431 |
| Baltimore | 26 | 33 | .441 |
| Minnesota | 26 | 32 | .448 |
| Seattle | 29 | 35 | .453 |
| Philadelphia | 30 | 35 | .462 |
| St. Louis | 30 | 35 | .462 |
| New England | 31 | 36 | .463 |
| Chicago | 27 | 30 | .474 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 31 | .475 |
| New Orleans | 28 | 31 | .475 |
| Atlanta | 28 | 31 | .475 |
| NY Jets | 33 | 34 | .493 |
| Detroit | 30 | 29 | .508 |
| Cleveland | 34 | 32 | .515 |
| Dallas | 34 | 32 | .515 |
| Green Bay | 30 | 28 | .517 |
| San Francisco | 30 | 28 | .517 |
| Oakland | 30 | 28 | .517 |
| Arizona | 31 | 27 | .534 |
| Miami | 33 | 27 | .550 |
| Tampa Bay | 33 | 27 | .550 |
| Cincinnati | 37 | 30 | .552 |
| Indianapolis | 32 | 25 | .561 |
| NY Giants | 34 | 26 | .567 |
| Washington | 33 | 25 | .569 |
| Tennessee | 35 | 25 | .583 |
| Houston | 37 | 22 | .627 |
| Buffalo | 43 | 25 | .632 |
| Jacksonville | 38 | 21 | .644 |
And to follow that, here's the strength of schedule for the final eight weeks -- the remaining strength of schedule.
| Strength of Schedule -- Wins (Weeks 10-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| Detroit | 22 | 43 | .338 |
| Buffalo | 20 | 38 | .345 |
| Green Bay | 26 | 40 | .394 |
| Cincinnati | 23 | 34 | .404 |
| Seattle | 24 | 33 | .421 |
| Tennessee | 28 | 36 | .438 |
| Jacksonville | 29 | 37 | .439 |
| Chicago | 30 | 38 | .441 |
| NY Jets | 26 | 32 | .448 |
| Miami | 31 | 37 | .456 |
| Cleveland | 27 | 32 | .458 |
| Washington | 31 | 36 | .463 |
| San Francisco | 31 | 35 | .470 |
| Houston | 31 | 34 | .477 |
| Indianapolis | 32 | 35 | .478 |
| New England | 28 | 30 | .483 |
| Dallas | 28 | 29 | .491 |
| Philadelphia | 28 | 29 | .491 |
| Arizona | 33 | 34 | .493 |
| Pittsburgh | 34 | 34 | .500 |
| New Orleans | 34 | 33 | .507 |
| Tampa Bay | 34 | 32 | .515 |
| Baltimore | 37 | 31 | .544 |
| Atlanta | 36 | 30 | .545 |
| Carolina | 36 | 30 | .545 |
| NY Giants | 36 | 30 | .545 |
| Oakland | 38 | 29 | .567 |
| Minnesota | 39 | 28 | .582 |
| Kansas City | 34 | 22 | .607 |
| St. Louis | 35 | 22 | .614 |
| Denver | 42 | 25 | .627 |
| San Diego | 47 | 20 | .701 |
Comparing the two charts, you'll notice a few things.
The six teams that have played the easiest schedules so far will all play top-10 (difficult) schedules in the second half of the season. Most notably, San Diego goes from 2nd-easiest to No. 1 hardest. Others: Carolina, Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore and Minnesota.
On the other end of the spectrum, five of the 10 teams that have played the hardest schedules will now play easy (top-10 easy) schedules. That group is headlined by Jacksonville, Buffalo and Tennessee, and also includes Cincinnati and Miami.
Only one team played a top-10 easy schedule in the first half and projects to do so again: Seattle (7th thus far, and should be 5th in the remaining eight weeks).
One one team played a bottom-10 (hard) schedule in the first half and projects to do so again: the Giants. Only five teams have played harder schedules so far, and only six project to be harder the rest of the way.
--Ian Allan

