It' s not a mirage. Teams are relying now on the pass more than every before. Not only are passing numbers up, but rushing production is down.
I put up the passing production last week. A reader asked to see the corresponding numbers for running, and I apologize for the delay.
They are down (and when you factor in that overall offense is way up, that means they're really down -- they're accounting for a smaller slice of the pie).
These are the numbers since the league moved to 32 teams in 2002.
For rushing yards, teams are averaging 109 yards this year. That's 7 yards lower than almost all of the previous 11 years.
| Rushing Production (Yards) | |
|---|---|
| Year | Per Game |
| 2002 | 116 |
| 2003 | 118 |
| 2004 | 117 |
| 2005 | 112 |
| 2006 | 117 |
| 2007 | 111 |
| 2008 | 116 |
| 2009 | 117 |
| 2010 | 114 |
| 2011 | 117 |
| 2012 | 116 |
| 2013 | 109 |
For rushing touchdowns, looks like teams are going to average about 12.2 this year. That's the 2nd-lowest number in this time period. (And note that with passing touchdowns way up, it means a smaller percentage of touchdowns are being scored on runs.) In a rough sense, teams now tend to score about twice as many touchdowns on passes rather than runs.
| Rushing Production (TDs) | |
|---|---|
| Year | Per Season |
| 2002 | 14.38 |
| 2003 | 13.34 |
| 2004 | 13.00 |
| 2005 | 13.47 |
| 2006 | 13.25 |
| 2007 | 12.06 |
| 2008 | 14.88 |
| 2009 | 13.41 |
| 2010 | 12.47 |
| 2011 | 12.50 |
| 2012 | 12.53 |
| 2013 | 12.25 |
And finally, here's "fantasy production", using the scoring system of 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for each rushing touchdown.
| Rushing Production (Fantasy Points) | |
|---|---|
| Year | PPG |
| 2002 | 17.0 |
| 2003 | 16.8 |
| 2004 | 16.5 |
| 2005 | 16.3 |
| 2006 | 16.7 |
| 2007 | 15.6 |
| 2008 | 17.2 |
| 2009 | 16.7 |
| 2010 | 16.1 |
| 2011 | 16.4 |
| 2012 | 16.3 |
| 2013 | 15.5 |
--Ian Allan