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Factoid

Declining Running Backs

The risk of blowing a first-round pick

Does it make sense to go after a running back in the first round? Or is the smarter route to go after a quarterback or wide receiver with that first-round selection?

I'm working on answering some mailbag questions, and that will be posted tomorrow morning. One reader asks about whether we should avoid running backs in the first round, reasoning that a lot of those picks don't pan out.

Isn't it smarter to just go with a franchise-type passer like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees?

This is an issue that's been kicked around for years, of course, and I don't see it as being dramatically different now. With quarterbacks, there are definitely some franchise-type guys out there. But it is revisionist history to suggest that the decision is to select either a running back or Peyton Manning throwing 50 touchdowns.

What if you had selected Tom Brady with your first-round pick? And factor in that in many years, there's an unheralded quarterback who winds up being a franchise fantasy option. Think RG3, Kaepernick and Russell Wilson last year.

But there is definitely risk in going the running back route. Too often you get left holding the player who was a superstar last year, but is really more of a just a guy in the present tense.

Below is the list of the top 50 running backs of this century. I'm leaving out the 2012 guys, because they haven't yet completed their follow-up season. Of these backs, almost 80 percent finished with fewer yards, and over 75 percent scored fewer touchdowns.

Note that on the chart below, the numbers don't show the player's stats. They show his decline. (2000 Edgerrin James, for example, didn't finish with 1,448 yards and 15 TDs -- he finished with 1,448 fewer yards and 15 fewer touchdowns than in 1999).

TOP 50 RUNNING BACKS SINCE 2000
YearRunning BackYardsTD
2000Edgerrin James144815
2000Mike Anderson94511
2000Eddie George74411
2000Marshall Faulk425
2001Marshall Faulk65711
2001Ahman Green3482
2001Shaun Alexander26+2
2001Priest Holmes+118+14
2002Tiki Barber3078
2002Deuce McAllister+4178
2002Ricky Williams4937
2002Travis Henry2333
2002Clinton Portis+333
2002Shaun Alexander+952
2002LaDainian Tomlinson+198+2
2002Priest Holmes177+3
2003Priest Holmes103112
2003Ahman Green81212
2003Jamal Lewis11497
2003Clinton Portis3557
2003Deuce McAllister855+1
2003LaDainian Tomlinson594+1
2003Shaun Alexander+136+4
2004Curtis Martin10899
2004Domanick Davis4638
2004Tiki Barber+2944
2004LaDainian Tomlinson+56+2
2004Edgerrin James188+5
2004Shaun Alexander+92+8
2005Shaun Alexander101421
2005Edgerrin James4678
2005Tiki Barber2636
2005Larry Johnson+1062
2005LaDainian Tomlinson+491+11
2006Larry Johnson145415
2006Willie Parker23614
2006LaDainian Tomlinson37413
2006Steven Jackson106110
2006Frank Gore6423
2007LaDainian Tomlinson4136
2007Brian Westbrook766+2
2008DeAngelo Williams26713
2008Michael Turner8347
2009Maurice Jones-Drew1249
2009Adrian Peterson1805
2009Chris Johnson9004
2010Arian Foster3796
2011LeSean McCoy41115
2011Maurice Jones-Drew14809
2011Ray Rice4475

--Ian Allan

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