Does it make sense to go after a running back in the first round? Or is the smarter route to go after a quarterback or wide receiver with that first-round selection?
I'm working on answering some mailbag questions, and that will be posted tomorrow morning. One reader asks about whether we should avoid running backs in the first round, reasoning that a lot of those picks don't pan out.
Isn't it smarter to just go with a franchise-type passer like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees?
This is an issue that's been kicked around for years, of course, and I don't see it as being dramatically different now. With quarterbacks, there are definitely some franchise-type guys out there. But it is revisionist history to suggest that the decision is to select either a running back or Peyton Manning throwing 50 touchdowns.
What if you had selected Tom Brady with your first-round pick? And factor in that in many years, there's an unheralded quarterback who winds up being a franchise fantasy option. Think RG3, Kaepernick and Russell Wilson last year.
But there is definitely risk in going the running back route. Too often you get left holding the player who was a superstar last year, but is really more of a just a guy in the present tense.
Below is the list of the top 50 running backs of this century. I'm leaving out the 2012 guys, because they haven't yet completed their follow-up season. Of these backs, almost 80 percent finished with fewer yards, and over 75 percent scored fewer touchdowns.
Note that on the chart below, the numbers don't show the player's stats. They show his decline. (2000 Edgerrin James, for example, didn't finish with 1,448 yards and 15 TDs -- he finished with 1,448 fewer yards and 15 fewer touchdowns than in 1999).
TOP 50 RUNNING BACKS SINCE 2000 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Running Back | Yards | TD |
2000 | Edgerrin James | 1448 | 15 |
2000 | Mike Anderson | 945 | 11 |
2000 | Eddie George | 744 | 11 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk | 42 | 5 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk | 657 | 11 |
2001 | Ahman Green | 348 | 2 |
2001 | Shaun Alexander | 26 | +2 |
2001 | Priest Holmes | +118 | +14 |
2002 | Tiki Barber | 307 | 8 |
2002 | Deuce McAllister | +417 | 8 |
2002 | Ricky Williams | 493 | 7 |
2002 | Travis Henry | 233 | 3 |
2002 | Clinton Portis | +33 | 3 |
2002 | Shaun Alexander | +95 | 2 |
2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson | +198 | +2 |
2002 | Priest Holmes | 177 | +3 |
2003 | Priest Holmes | 1031 | 12 |
2003 | Ahman Green | 812 | 12 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis | 1149 | 7 |
2003 | Clinton Portis | 355 | 7 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister | 855 | +1 |
2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 594 | +1 |
2003 | Shaun Alexander | +136 | +4 |
2004 | Curtis Martin | 1089 | 9 |
2004 | Domanick Davis | 463 | 8 |
2004 | Tiki Barber | +294 | 4 |
2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson | +56 | +2 |
2004 | Edgerrin James | 188 | +5 |
2004 | Shaun Alexander | +92 | +8 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander | 1014 | 21 |
2005 | Edgerrin James | 467 | 8 |
2005 | Tiki Barber | 263 | 6 |
2005 | Larry Johnson | +106 | 2 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson | +491 | +11 |
2006 | Larry Johnson | 1454 | 15 |
2006 | Willie Parker | 236 | 14 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 374 | 13 |
2006 | Steven Jackson | 1061 | 10 |
2006 | Frank Gore | 642 | 3 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 413 | 6 |
2007 | Brian Westbrook | 766 | +2 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams | 267 | 13 |
2008 | Michael Turner | 834 | 7 |
2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 124 | 9 |
2009 | Adrian Peterson | 180 | 5 |
2009 | Chris Johnson | 900 | 4 |
2010 | Arian Foster | 379 | 6 |
2011 | LeSean McCoy | 411 | 15 |
2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 1480 | 9 |
2011 | Ray Rice | 447 | 5 |
--Ian Allan