Factoid

November 21, 2013

Declining Running Backs

The risk of blowing a first-round pick

Does it make sense to go after a running back in the first round? Or is the smarter route to go after a quarterback or wide receiver with that first-round selection?

I'm working on answering some mailbag questions, and that will be posted tomorrow morning. One reader asks about whether we should avoid running backs in the first round, reasoning that a lot of those picks don't pan out.

Isn't it smarter to just go with a franchise-type passer like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees?

This is an issue that's been kicked around for years, of course, and I don't see it as being dramatically different now. With quarterbacks, there are definitely some franchise-type guys out there. But it is revisionist history to suggest that the decision is to select either a running back or Peyton Manning throwing 50 touchdowns.

What if you had selected Tom Brady with your first-round pick? And factor in that in many years, there's an unheralded quarterback who winds up being a franchise fantasy option. Think RG3, Kaepernick and Russell Wilson last year.

But there is definitely risk in going the running back route. Too often you get left holding the player who was a superstar last year, but is really more of a just a guy in the present tense.

Below is the list of the top 50 running backs of this century. I'm leaving out the 2012 guys, because they haven't yet completed their follow-up season. Of these backs, almost 80 percent finished with fewer yards, and over 75 percent scored fewer touchdowns.

Note that on the chart below, the numbers don't show the player's stats. They show his decline. (2000 Edgerrin James, for example, didn't finish with 1,448 yards and 15 TDs -- he finished with 1,448 fewer yards and 15 fewer touchdowns than in 1999).

TOP 50 RUNNING BACKS SINCE 2000
Year	Running Back	Yards	TD
2000	Edgerrin James	1448	15
2000	Mike Anderson	945	11
2000	Eddie George	744	11
2000	Marshall Faulk	42	5
2001	Marshall Faulk	657	11
2001	Ahman Green	348	2
2001	Shaun Alexander	26	+2
2001	Priest Holmes	+118	+14
2002	Tiki Barber	307	8
2002	Deuce McAllister	+417	8
2002	Ricky Williams	493	7
2002	Travis Henry	233	3
2002	Clinton Portis	+33	3
2002	Shaun Alexander	+95	2
2002	LaDainian Tomlinson	+198	+2
2002	Priest Holmes	177	+3
2003	Priest Holmes	1031	12
2003	Ahman Green	812	12
2003	Jamal Lewis	1149	7
2003	Clinton Portis	355	7
2003	Deuce McAllister	855	+1
2003	LaDainian Tomlinson	594	+1
2003	Shaun Alexander	+136	+4
2004	Curtis Martin	1089	9
2004	Domanick Davis	463	8
2004	Tiki Barber	+294	4
2004	LaDainian Tomlinson	+56	+2
2004	Edgerrin James	188	+5
2004	Shaun Alexander	+92	+8
2005	Shaun Alexander	1014	21
2005	Edgerrin James	467	8
2005	Tiki Barber	263	6
2005	Larry Johnson	+106	2
2005	LaDainian Tomlinson	+491	+11
2006	Larry Johnson	1454	15
2006	Willie Parker	236	14
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	374	13
2006	Steven Jackson	1061	10
2006	Frank Gore	642	3
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson	413	6
2007	Brian Westbrook	766	+2
2008	DeAngelo Williams	267	13
2008	Michael Turner	834	7
2009	Maurice Jones-Drew	124	9
2009	Adrian Peterson	180	5
2009	Chris Johnson	900	4
2010	Arian Foster	379	6
2011	LeSean McCoy	411	15
2011	Maurice Jones-Drew	1480	9
2011	Ray Rice	447	5

--Ian Allan

10 Reader Comments:

Johnny Bazzano

SANTA ROSA, CA

2013-11-22T02:50:09Z

I've been using your magazine exclusively for the past 20 years so I know your philosophies and styles. I bought into the running back urgency for a great deal of that time but have changed my mind especially during this season. It is very rare to find a grouping of productive quarterbacks that come out of nowhere (minus 2012). Yet is seems more often, especially due to injuries, productive running backs show up week by week. With the demise of the 100 yard game running back due to running back by committee, it absolutely makes complete sense to invest in the best quarterbacks as opposed to the best running backs. Less injuries, more security and more points per week. How many of you are sticking voodoo pins into Trent Richardson, MJD, Steven Jackson, Spiller, Murray, Ray Rice, Doug Martin etc...I have !

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2013-11-22T05:52:22Z

This is an important issue, and I will look into it in more detail before we draft again next summer. Maybe the first-round issue will be a feature in next year's magazine. Anytime you look at a bunch of players who did great, the tendency is to see fall off. That's why people think there's such as thing as a sophomore slump. We need to look at the retention rates at QB-RB-WR, and we need to look at how many top 5 and top 10 players at those positions tend to kind of come out of nowhere.

Jose Montana

ROSEMEAD, CA

2013-11-22T13:21:12Z

I've been playing over 20 years and using FFI, and almost always make the playoffs. I think I've picked a QB in the first round maybe 4 times, and only one of those teams was good. There always seem to be a second-tier QB that is drafted 2 rounds later than his draft day projection. But I play in a large league with large teams, the ones that Ian mocks with the 80 WR's.

Bill Petilli

LARCHMONT, NY

2013-11-22T13:30:11Z

I too have been a long time player and did become an early QB believer the past 3 years or so, except this year. I went back to the RB route, pick 7 of a 12 team snake and took Charles and on my come around took CJ2K and then D.Thomas. I came out of this draft thinking I pulled one over on everybody. But the guy who took Brees/Dez/Gore is doing much better. I've waited on the QB and kicked me in the rear. I don't regret the Charles pick one bit, but I did get burned again with CJ2K. I'm probably still bitter so I will calm down, but as of today I'm def leaning back to the QB. Maybe not the first round because I do think there are a crop of RB's that you wouldn't want to pass on, but in round 2 or 3 and I see a Stafford or Brady.. I'm taking them.

Roy Sherman

COLUMBIA, TN

2013-11-22T18:01:35Z

In our league, it is kind of hard to argue against taking Brees in the first round, seeing as how the owner who drafted him the last four years has won the championship. The guy who drafted him this year (#1 overall) is currently in first place.

Steven Wiggins

NEW YORK, NY

2013-11-22T22:18:09Z

I see a couple ways of looking at this issue. For a long time, I heard guys saying that it was wise to take RBs early because the point differential between the "stud RBs" and the next tier of guy (say a top-15 back) was greater than the gap between the top QBs and the next tier of QBs. That makes sense if it's true, but I just don't believe it is true.

If you look at each NFL team's highest-scoring fantasy RB, and tally their points for the season, and then take a league average of that, I guarantee the points will be quite a bit lower than they were even 5 or 6 years ago. Even if the league overall scores almost as many rushing TDs as it did before, and produces almost as many rushing yards as it did before, the percentage of those yards and TDs that the #1 backs are getting is smaller, and that's what matters - not the team's total production.

Any one owner in any one year can always justify taking RB-RB first, if they happen to pick the right ones. But how many of the top 15 RBs pre-draft are actually producing? And even if they are the highest producers when you RANK the RBs, their total fantasy points are still going to be lower than in past years, and the gap between them and the rest of the pack will be smaller.

DAVID DIGREGORIO

NORRISTOWN, PA

2013-11-23T01:53:47Z

I forget the exact statistics, but about half of the top 20 ranked RBs at the start of the season, do not finish the season in the top 20. This is consistent across seasons. A lot of risk with RBs. In a high stakes league 12 team league, I picked I picked 8th and got Rice and Richardson. I thought I had some potential. Oh, well.

GREG THOMPSON

CARY, NC

2013-11-23T15:22:18Z

For the last three years, I have actually gone WR-WR-WR and made the championship game the last two years. This year employing the same strategy (Calvin - Marshall - D. Thomas), I was able to get Lacy (4) and Vereen (6) as might starting RBs - hello, injury bug. If Brady (5) Had done anything this year, I'd be leading the league instead of struggling to make the play-offs. The point is - there are always young, under-valued, emerging RBs in round 7-10.

SCOTT BEHIEL

ANGELS CAMP, CA

2013-11-23T23:24:53Z

Our league has two teams running away with it. First place took Calvin Johnson and Forte it the first two rounds. The 2nd team took McCoy and Dez Bryant. A distant 3rd and 4th are those who took Rodgers and St Jackson and P Manning and Spiller. The first two teams were able to draft Luck and Stafford late. I think the key may not comparing the values of the first round picks so much as comparing the value of the 4th round picks.

Bill Petilli

LARCHMONT, NY

2013-11-25T19:04:13Z

@Scott.. There'd be no way I'd pass on McCoy, AP, Lynch, Charles, and even Lacy at this point. I'd have to think Rice bounces back and can be trusted next year. But I'd go the other routes if those guys were gone and regardless will plan to have a QB, no later than round 4 next year. I know it's a tough thing to declare right now, but I'm observing the teams with these big QB's just having such an edge.

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Factoid

Declining Running Backs

10 Reader Comments:

Johnny Bazzano

Ian Allan

Jose Montana

Bill Petilli

Roy Sherman

Steven Wiggins

DAVID DIGREGORIO

GREG THOMPSON

SCOTT BEHIEL

Bill Petilli

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