Here's a revised look at strength of schedule. Plugging in points rather than wins, and focusing on just the games in the next month. Buffalo and Green Bay project to face the weakest defenses.
First, I've got the straight-up schedule. It's got the Bills, Packers and Ravens at the top. Those are the three teams who's next four games will be against teams that are allowing over 27 points per game.
The Broncos, Bucs and Jets project to see the toughest defenses. Down around 20 points per game for those teams.
This is after tossing out Weeks 16 and 17. The vast majority of fantasy leagues are done before Week 17, and most fantasy teams are more interested in GETTING to a championship game in Week 16, rather than planning for a championship game that may or may not occur. Weeks 12-15 seem more important than Week 16 to most teams.
| Strength of Schedule, points (weeks 12-15) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Points |
| Buffalo | 28.3 |
| Green Bay | 28.1 |
| Baltimore | 27.2 |
| Chicago | 26.3 |
| Philadelphia | 26.2 |
| Houston | 26.1 |
| Jacksonville | 26.0 |
| Kansas City | 25.9 |
| Cleveland | 25.7 |
| Dallas | 25.3 |
| New England | 24.9 |
| Atlanta | 24.5 |
| Minnesota | 23.9 |
| NY Giants | 23.8 |
| San Francisco | 23.6 |
| Detroit | 23.2 |
| Tennessee | 23.2 |
| Carolina | 22.9 |
| Arizona | 22.7 |
| Cincinnati | 22.6 |
| Indianapolis | 22.5 |
| Oakland | 22.3 |
| Washington | 21.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.6 |
| Miami | 21.2 |
| St. Louis | 21.0 |
| San Diego | 20.9 |
| New Orleans | 20.6 |
| Seattle | 20.6 |
| NY Jets | 20.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 20.4 |
| Denver | 19.6 |
Now, let's tweak those numbers just a little. Let's leave those exact figures in place, and average them against what teams have done so far. The Broncos, for example, are averaging about 40 points, and their opponents are allowing about 20, so they work out to 30 points, on average.
Do that for all 32 teams, and you get this ...
| Strength of Schedule, averaged (Weeks 12-15) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pts | Sched | Avg |
| Denver | 39.8 | 19.6 | 29.7 |
| Chicago | 28.2 | 26.3 | 27.2 |
| Green Bay | 25.8 | 28.1 | 26.9 |
| Dallas | 27.4 | 25.3 | 26.3 |
| Philadelphia | 25.1 | 26.2 | 25.6 |
| New England | 25.4 | 24.9 | 25.1 |
| Buffalo | 21.5 | 28.3 | 24.9 |
| New Orleans | 28.8 | 20.6 | 24.7 |
| Detroit | 26.2 | 23.2 | 24.7 |
| Kansas City | 23.2 | 25.9 | 24.5 |
| Seattle | 27.8 | 20.6 | 24.2 |
| San Francisco | 24.7 | 23.6 | 24.2 |
| Indianapolis | 25.5 | 22.5 | 24.0 |
| Baltimore | 20.8 | 27.2 | 24.0 |
| Minnesota | 24.0 | 23.9 | 23.9 |
| Cincinnati | 25.0 | 22.6 | 23.8 |
| Carolina | 23.8 | 22.9 | 23.4 |
| Washington | 24.6 | 21.6 | 23.1 |
| Atlanta | 21.4 | 24.5 | 22.9 |
| Tennessee | 22.7 | 23.2 | 22.9 |
| Houston | 19.3 | 26.1 | 22.7 |
| Cleveland | 19.2 | 25.7 | 22.5 |
| Arizona | 21.4 | 22.7 | 22.0 |
| San Diego | 22.8 | 20.9 | 21.9 |
| St. Louis | 22.4 | 21.0 | 21.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 |
| NY Giants | 19.2 | 23.8 | 21.5 |
| Miami | 21.3 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Oakland | 19.4 | 22.3 | 20.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 18.7 | 20.4 | 19.5 |
| Jacksonville | 12.9 | 26.0 | 19.4 |
| NY Jets | 18.3 | 20.5 | 19.4 |
The Bears are the team that jumps out at me. They've had a pretty good offense thus far, and with their schedule, it looks like they'll continue to score in the high 20s in a lot of games.
Also see the Packers, Cowboys and Iggles up near the top.
Jets, Bucs, Jaguars, Raiders, Dolphins. Think we can pretty much write off those offenses.
--Ian Allan

