What teams are doing the best relative to who they've played? That is, which offenses have been able to take advantage of playing easy schedules? And which have thrived despite playing hard schedules? Ian Allan has the answers.
Stick with me, because this gets a little more complicated. I'm going second-level with the math, to draw some semi-interesting conclusions (with an emphasis on "semi").
The below charts (one rushing, one passing) shows how teams' opponents have fared against OTHER teams. That is, if you look at a particular team (the Colts, for example) who much was allowed by their opponents in their other combined 156 games?
If said opponents allowed an average of 2.0 TD runs per game and 200 rushing yards per game, it stands to reason the Colts should have put up great rushing numbers. If the opponents hardly allowed any rushing production, than it would be understandable that the Colts struggled.
The schedules are in order of fantasy points, with 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for touchdowns. The more points (fantasy points) allowed by opponents, the easier the schedule was.
Those are the first three numbers you see -- touchdowns, yards and points (fantasy points). Then I've listed how the team actually did in its own 13 games (it's actual fantasy points). And the final number ("Diff") shows the difference between the two numbers.
If a difference number is big (4, 5, 7, etc.) that means a team tended to outperform what its schedule suggested a regular team would have done.
If a difference number is negative (-4, -5, etc.) than means it tended to underperform relative to its schedule.
The best five teams relative to their schedule are tagged with a "B" before their name.
For rushing, for example, the best five teams (relative to their schedule) were the Bills, Patriots, Eagles, 49ers and Vikings. The worst five (tagged with w) were the Giants, Ravens, Jaguars, Steelers and Browns.
The Giants had the easiest run schedule; they should have put up good rushing numbers, but they did not.
For passing, the best five teams were the Broncos, Steelers, Saints, Falcons, Lions and Chargers. (I snuck in six because of a tie).
The worst five for passing were Kansas City, Oakland, Jets, Buffalo and San Francisco.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Rushing (Weeks 1-14) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TD | Yards | Points | Team | Diff |
| w-NY Giants | .89 | 119 | 17.2 | 13.4 | -3.8 |
| San Diego | .94 | 115 | 17.2 | 14.4 | -2.8 |
| Detroit | .87 | 119 | 17.1 | 16.8 | -.3 |
| Kansas City | .97 | 112 | 17.0 | 18.5 | 1.5 |
| Oakland | .94 | 113 | 16.9 | 19.5 | 2.6 |
| Dallas | .90 | 115 | 16.9 | 14.0 | -2.9 |
| w-Baltimore | .87 | 116 | 16.9 | 11.0 | -5.9 |
| Denver | .82 | 116 | 16.6 | 19.8 | 3.3 |
| Houston | .85 | 114 | 16.4 | 14.2 | -2.3 |
| St. Louis | .83 | 114 | 16.3 | 14.5 | -1.8 |
| Tennessee | .84 | 113 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 1.7 |
| w-Jacksonville | .84 | 112 | 16.3 | 10.9 | -5.4 |
| b-Minnesota | .78 | 116 | 16.2 | 21.0 | 4.7 |
| Chicago | .85 | 112 | 16.2 | 15.9 | -.3 |
| Cincinnati | .78 | 116 | 16.2 | 16.7 | .4 |
| Indianapolis | .87 | 110 | 16.2 | 16.1 | -.2 |
| Washington | .82 | 113 | 16.2 | 20.3 | 4.1 |
| NY Jets | .74 | 117 | 16.2 | 16.3 | .1 |
| w-Pittsburgh | .76 | 115 | 16.1 | 10.1 | -6.0 |
| Arizona | .77 | 113 | 15.9 | 13.6 | -2.3 |
| New Orleans | .71 | 117 | 15.9 | 12.4 | -3.5 |
| Green Bay | .79 | 111 | 15.8 | 18.4 | 2.6 |
| w-Cleveland | .70 | 116 | 15.8 | 9.4 | -6.5 |
| b-San Francisco | .81 | 110 | 15.8 | 20.7 | 4.9 |
| Seattle | .82 | 108 | 15.8 | 19.7 | 3.9 |
| b-Philadelphia | .83 | 105 | 15.5 | 22.3 | 6.8 |
| Carolina | .67 | 111 | 15.2 | 18.4 | 3.2 |
| Miami | .65 | 112 | 15.1 | 13.3 | -1.8 |
| Atlanta | .61 | 110 | 14.7 | 11.8 | -2.9 |
| Tampa Bay | .61 | 108 | 14.5 | 13.4 | -1.1 |
| b-New England | .64 | 105 | 14.3 | 18.9 | 4.6 |
| b-Buffalo | .57 | 104 | 13.8 | 18.9 | 5.1 |
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Passing (Weeks 1-14) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TD | Yards | Points | Team | Diff |
| NY Giants | 1.75 | 283 | 38.8 | 32.5 | -6.3 |
| Washington | 1.69 | 276 | 37.7 | 32.9 | -4.8 |
| w-Kansas City | 1.74 | 270 | 37.4 | 30.5 | -6.9 |
| Philadelphia | 1.72 | 269 | 37.2 | 38.4 | 1.1 |
| w-Oakland | 1.68 | 268 | 36.9 | 28.2 | -8.7 |
| Dallas | 1.60 | 268 | 36.4 | 37.7 | 1.3 |
| Chicago | 1.68 | 263 | 36.4 | 40.6 | 4.2 |
| Green Bay | 1.73 | 260 | 36.4 | 36.7 | .3 |
| b-Detroit | 1.71 | 258 | 36.0 | 43.0 | 7.0 |
| b-San Diego | 1.57 | 259 | 35.3 | 41.9 | 6.6 |
| Cleveland | 1.62 | 254 | 35.1 | 39.4 | 4.3 |
| Baltimore | 1.70 | 249 | 35.1 | 33.2 | -1.9 |
| Minnesota | 1.63 | 252 | 35.0 | 29.2 | -5.8 |
| w-NY Jets | 1.62 | 251 | 34.9 | 25.1 | -9.7 |
| w-Buffalo | 1.58 | 254 | 34.9 | 27.1 | -7.8 |
| b-Pittsburgh | 1.61 | 252 | 34.9 | 39.8 | 5.0 |
| b-Denver | 1.45 | 261 | 34.8 | 55.6 | 20.8 |
| Cincinnati | 1.60 | 251 | 34.7 | 38.0 | 3.3 |
| Tennessee | 1.56 | 253 | 34.7 | 30.6 | -4.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 1.51 | 255 | 34.6 | 28.5 | -6.1 |
| Carolina | 1.58 | 250 | 34.5 | 30.6 | -3.9 |
| Miami | 1.58 | 249 | 34.4 | 34.7 | .4 |
| Houston | 1.51 | 251 | 34.2 | 36.1 | 1.9 |
| New England | 1.60 | 244 | 34.1 | 38.0 | 4.0 |
| Jacksonville | 1.56 | 245 | 33.9 | 27.7 | -6.1 |
| b-New Orleans | 1.50 | 245 | 33.5 | 46.8 | 13.3 |
| Arizona | 1.49 | 246 | 33.5 | 35.8 | 2.3 |
| Seattle | 1.47 | 247 | 33.5 | 34.2 | .7 |
| Indianapolis | 1.42 | 248 | 33.3 | 33.6 | .3 |
| w-San Francisco | 1.47 | 244 | 33.2 | 26.6 | -6.6 |
| St. Louis | 1.47 | 244 | 33.2 | 30.8 | -2.4 |
| b-Atlanta | 1.50 | 242 | 33.2 | 38.2 | 5.0 |
--Ian Allan
