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Fantasy News

January 13, 2014

Fantasy Index Experts Poll (TE)

David Dorey wins tight ends -- easily

Long-time veteran David Dorey shows that it's not who you pick -- but who you don't overvalue. He avoided buying into the hype on a handful of players, helping him to a convincing win at this position.

David Dorey had his worst-ever finish in the Experts Poll last year, finishing 16th out of 20. But he did not all of sudden become stupid or lose his touch. He’s been in our poll for over a decade, and to get the true measure of an analyst, you’ve got to look at the larger body of work. Two thirds of the time he’s been above average, and over half the time he’s been in the top 6.

Helped by his colleagues at The Huddle, he knows what he’s doing.

And Dorey is the winner at the tight end portion of this year’s poll – and in the hunt to win his second overall title. He last won the whole thing nine years ago.

Dorey won this one pretty decisively, finishing over 1,000 points ahead of all but one other contestant. The math on these things gets pretty complex, but it looks like his best choices were the guys he didn’t pick. He was among the lowest on Rob Gronkowski, putting him down at 5th. That helped. And Dorey had Kyle Rudolph (19th) way lower than almost everyone. Rudolph ended up getting hurt, but even before the injury, Dorey was on the right track with that selection.

Jermichael Finley and Owen Daniels via the consensus were the Nos. 10 and 11 tight ends on the board, but Dorey had them down at 17 and 20. More value. And he didn’t even rank Fred Davis or Dustin Keller, which worked in his favor.

Dorey also ranked Jordan Cameron 12th, the 2nd-highest of any expert (behind Alan Satterlee). That also generated value for his value.

As a reminder, in this competition, we’re scoring every selection by every expert in varying degree. Cameron scored 87.9 points (6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards), so somebody ranking him first would receive 30 x 87.9 = 2,637 points. Somebody ranking him 2nd would receive 29 x 87.9 = 2,549.1 points. Dorey ranked him 12th, so he received 19 x 87.9 = 1,670.1 points.

L’Roy Hale of Fantasy First finished 2nd in this category. In fact, he’s finished 2nd at all three positions so far, so he’s the overall leader with half of the positions graded. Tony Holm of Fantasy Sharks was the bronze medalists of tight ends.

Holm benefitted from our rules change a few years back. We used to grade these things on a descending scale of 20-1, making the picks in the teens far less valuable. Using that format, Holm would have been 10th – killed by ranking Kyle Rudolph 3rd. But that’s soften in the 30-11 format, and he was the only guy who ranked Delanie Walker, who ended up being a top-10 tight end.

Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus placed in 5th at this position, which is very solid. But he was even better in the Fantasy Index Open (see the article posted earlier today). In that one, he ranked 2nd out of 209 entries at this position. His rankings got better from the middle of May to early August.

Ladd Biro of Fantasy Fools scored nicely at kickers – 3rd – but got slapped around at this position. He was the high/low man on five different players, and he missed on all of them. He was the only guy not to rank Jared Cook, who put up top-10 numbers, and he was the highest on Jermichael Finley (5th), Heath Miller (8th), Dwayne Allen (14th) and Jacob Tamme (17th), and none of those guys worked out.

It was Dorey’s day, and he has one of the better track records at this competition. Over 12 years, he’s faced 243 other experts, and he’s come out on top against 172 of them. Few guys in this kind of format have over twice as many “wins” as “losses”.

DOREY IN EXPERTS POLL
YearPlaceEntries
20015th20
20026th20
200311th20
20041st25
20055th25
20067th25
20076th25
20086th20
20095th20
201011th20
201114th25
201216th20

Here are standings for tight ends, using the 30-11 grading system …

EXPERTS POLL – TIGHT ENDS
1.David Dorey26,893
2.L'Roy Hale25,944
3.Tony Holm25,595
4.Alan Satterlee25,532
5.Mike Clay25,242
6.Cory Bonini25,242
7.Chris Liss25,039
8.Scott Sachs24,970
9.Paul Charcian24,589
10.Pretzel May24,446
11.Bob Henry24,419
12.Bill Enright24,418
13.Sam Hendricks24,399
14.Christopher Harris24,385
15.Michael Nazarek24,089
16.Lenny Pappano23,756
17.Micah James23,730
18.John Moore23,592
19.Scott Pianowski23,471
20.Ladd Biro21,782

Here are the current overall standings. The remaining positions – QB, RB, WR – will be scored in the next few days.

As a reminder, the top 11 will win spots in the Mock Draft that occurs in the pages of the 2014 editions of Fantasy Football Index magazine.

AnalystCompanyTEPKDefPoints
L'Roy HaleFantasy First222125,618
David DoreyThe Huddle1118123,374
Alan SatterleeDynasty Football Warehouse487122,768
Micah JamesFFMagicMan1751122,715
Mike ClayPro Football Focus5126121,931
Scott PianowskiYahoo! Sports19119121,860
Christopher HarrisESPN14410121,644
Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind1575121,532
Chris LissRotowire7139121,069
Bob HenryFootballguys.com11615120,889
Cory BoniniKFFL6183120,481
Tony HolmFantasySharks.com3194120,232
Paul CharcianLeagueSafe91416119,978
Scott SachsPerfectSeasonFFB.com81020119,689
Sam HendricksFantasy Football Guidebook.com131613119,507
John Moore2012 Fantasy Index Open18918119,278
Bill EnrightFantasy Football Champs121711119,255
Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks161514119,241
Ladd BiroFantasy Fools20317119,076
Pretzel MayFantasy Draft Master102012116,307

--Ian Allan

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