A few weeks ago, I advised you to take off your fantasy owner's hat during the NFL playoffs. Now, with just three games left, you might want to simply put it away until April.
Except for the preseason, playoff football provides the most dangerous games for fantasy owners to watch. The import of the games and significance of each contest makes us pay more attention to what we see, and subconsciously affects how we feel about players. That could very well show up in your own rankings this summer, and alter the course of your draft.
In the preseason, we see a player string together some great games and we bump them up our draft boards. It's the only football to watch, so we pay more attention than we should. And by "we," I don't really mean "me." I haven't watched a preseason game in a long time. I know there's information I'll need, but I don't like the charade of pretend football. Instead, I let Ian recap them for me in the August updates; he'll know what's important, and I'll take that valuable information with me into my drafts. But a lot of people do watch, and I think it affects their drafts and auctions.
I do, however, watch the playoffs. No matter where I am. I'll wait for a year to go on a cruise in January, then spend several hours scrambling in ports for Internet access and a television with whatever game is being played. I don't need to see another country; I need to focus on the match up. I know that's weird, but I don't care. These are the last games I'll see for months, and they're the most important ones for the teams, players and fans.
To be honest, I think it affects my rankings negatively, too. I saw Larry Fitzgerald playing at a super-human level back during the 2008 season's playoffs, and I've been too eager to take a chance on him every year since. That "Beast Mode" run by Marshawn Lynch affected a couple of drafts by itself. And I know this sounds silly, but Peyton Manning looked old to me in last year's overtime loss against the Ravens. At the end of the game, he looked tired and his throws weren't crisp. He was on his way out, so there was no reason to take a chance on him or his receivers this past August.
Genius, right? I had no part in drafting Manning, either Thomas, Decker or Welker this past season. For the most part I was able to overcome it, but it didn't exactly help my fantasy fortunes to ignore those players. And I'm telling you, that last game had something to do with it. Now, I don't expect you to be a ridiculous as I am, but I think you could still put too much weight on what we've already seen. You should consciously devalue these performances so as not to over inflate (or under inflate) the players' values.
Andy Dalton looked confused out there against the Chargers, but he was awfully effective as a fantasy quarterback during the regular season. Pierre Thomas did nothing in the playoffs-- literally-- but he was valuable utility depth in 2013 and a spot start at RB or flex, especially in PPR. In deep leagues you could have done much worse for a starter. And while Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe came up big in Kansas City's loss, that's a running team. Smith is a game manager, and Bowe isn't a reliable starter for a fantasy squad. Jimmy Graham is better than he played, and LeGarrette Blount isn't nearly as good as he's played.
I'm telling you these things, but I'm reminding myself as well. I see Anquan Boldin light up the Panthers and I want him on my team next year. But is he really the best option for me, or even on his own team? I know better, but if he goes on a tear against the Seahawks, I'm going to remember it on draft day. And if I make him a starter, I'll probably suffer for it.
This is just another reason why you should be focused on the real games in the playoffs, not the fantasy implications. But just as a pro scout is never off the clock, a fantasy owner is always evaluating talent, even if they aren't doing it consciously. Just put a mental asterisk next to these performances, and don't let them affect you in August. Hopefully, I'll be able to do the same.
Any takeaways so far from the playoffs that might affect your draft strategy next season? Share your thoughts below.