Ian Allan looks at the tight ends who'll play this weekend and explains why he believes Julius Thomas is slightly better than Vernon Davis. Zach Miller and Michael Hoomanawanui -- they're well back.
TIGHT ENDS:
We already laid the groundwork for this position yesterday, when we discussed the quarterbacks. I decided on my forecasts for passing yards and passing touchdowns, and the tight ends are tied to those.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD |
| Denver | 285 | 2.10 |
| New England | 260 | 1.65 |
| Seattle | 205 | 1.25 |
| San Francisco | 200 | 1.10 |
So for tight ends, I’m mainly looking at what guys usually do, calculating “percentages of production”, and then re-applying those percentages to the game-specific projection.
Vernon Davis is one of the two big-time tight ends. Remarkably, he’s caught 15 of their 23 touchdown passes this year. Over two thirds of their scores have gone to him, including their only one against Seattle. They like to use him in the red zone.
But I’m not going that high on him; I’m not projecting that he’ll catch 66 percent of San Francisco’s projected 1.1 TD passes. The 49ers have been changing as they’ve gone along. Michael Crabtree has been re-gaining confidence, so that’s now a three-man receiving group – Davis, Crabtree and Boldin. So I think a projection of about 40 percent of touchdowns for Davis is more logical. Seattle is good at cornerback, which works in his favor. Of the 17 TD passes allowed by the Seahawks, 6 have gone to tight ends (about a third).
Davis averaged 53 yards per game in the regular season, but Seattle has played well against him in their recent meetings. He’s finished with only 27, 20 and 21 yards in the three games Kaepernick has started. Davis got knocked out early in his 2012 game at Seattle.
Julius Thomas is the other big gun at this position. He averaged 56 yards per game in the regular season, with 12 TDs. When he was playing (he missed two games) he caught 25 percent of Denver’s passing touchdowns. That’s about the same as what New England allowed (the Patriots gave up 25 TD passes, and 6 went to tight ends). So we’re figuring Thomas will catch about 25 percent of Denver’s TD passes in this game. If they finish with 2 TDs, that makes him about a 50-50 bet to score.
As a pass catcher, Thomas could finish with a nice haul. He went 6 for 76 last week. In the earlier Patriots game (which he missed), the Broncos were led in catches by Jacob Tamme (5 receptions), who was filling in.
Michael Hoomanawanui looks like the worst of starting tight ends. They just don’t use him much. Rob Gronkowski has missed 10 games this year, so Hoomanawanui has had ample opportunity to get comfortable and acclimated in that offense, and it simply has never clicked in. He had one really neat one-handed touchdown at Miami, but he hasn’t scored in any of his other nine games. He caught 4 passes in the game against New Orleans, but he’s caught only 7 passes in the other nine games. Non-factor.
Zach Miller is more like Hoomanawanui than the two big-time tight ends. He averaged only 24 yards in the regular season. But there is a little flicker of scoring potential. Miller caught 5 TDs in the regular season – same as Golden Tate, and same as Doug Baldwin. The 49ers, meanwhile, will allow some touchdowns to tight ends. They allowed almost as many scores to tight ends (8) as wide receivers (9). So it is logical (I think) to project that Miller will catch about 25 percent of Seattle’s touchdown passes in this game. That might be overly conservative. I projected Seattle to finish with 1.25 TD passes, so that makes Miller worth almost a third of a touchdown. He caught 1 pass last week. In each of his last three games against San Francisco, he’s caught 2 passes. No touchdowns in any of his last four against this opponent.
So ultimately, it all ends up like this …
| TIGHT END RANKINGS (Standard) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Tight end | Yds | TD | Pts |
| DEN | Julius Thomas | 43 | .48 | 7.2 |
| SF | Vernon Davis | 50 | .44 | 7.1 |
| SEA | Zach Miller | 27 | .30 | 4.5 |
| NE | Michael Hoomanawanui | 18 | .21 | 3.1 |
| SEA | Luke Willson | 6 | .04 | 0.8 |
| DEN | Virgil Green | 4 | .04 | 0.7 |
| SF | Vance McDonald | 4 | .02 | 0.5 |
| NE | Matthew Mulligan | 3 | .02 | 0.4 |
| SF | Garrett Celek | 2 | .02 | 0.3 |
| SEA | Kellen Davis | 2 | .01 | 0.3 |
| DEN | Jacob Tamme | 1 | .01 | 0.2 |
| NE | D.J. Williams | 1 | .00 | 0.1 |
| DEN | Joel Dreessen | 0 | .00 | 0.0 |
| TIGHT END RANKINGS (PPR) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Tight end | Yds | TD | Pts |
| DEN | Julius Thomas | 43 | .48 | 11.2 |
| SF | Vernon Davis | 50 | .44 | 10.6 |
| SEA | Zach Miller | 27 | .30 | 6.9 |
| NE | Michael Hoomanawanui | 18 | .21 | 4.8 |
| SEA | Luke Willson | 6 | .04 | 1.3 |
| DEN | Virgil Green | 4 | .04 | 1.0 |
| SF | Vance McDonald | 4 | .02 | .9 |
| NE | Matthew Mulligan | 3 | .02 | .7 |
| SEA | Kellen Davis | 2 | .01 | .5 |
| SF | Garrett Celek | 2 | .02 | .5 |
| DEN | Jacob Tamme | 1 | .01 | .3 |
| NE | D.J. Williams | 1 | .00 | .1 |
| DEN | Joel Dreessen | 0 | .00 | .1 |
| TIGHT END RANKINGS (TD-only) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Tight end | Yds | TD | Pts |
| DEN | Julius Thomas | 43 | .48 | 2.9 |
| SF | Vernon Davis | 50 | .44 | 2.6 |
| SEA | Zach Miller | 27 | .30 | 1.8 |
| NE | Michael Hoomanawanui | 18 | .21 | 1.3 |
| DEN | Virgil Green | 4 | .04 | .3 |
| SEA | Luke Willson | 6 | .04 | .2 |
| SF | Vance McDonald | 4 | .02 | .1 |
| NE | Matthew Mulligan | 3 | .02 | .1 |
| SF | Garrett Celek | 2 | .02 | .1 |
| SEA | Kellen Davis | 2 | .01 | .1 |
| DEN | Jacob Tamme | 1 | .01 | .1 |
| NE | D.J. Williams | 1 | .00 | .0 |
| DEN | Joel Dreessen | 0 | .00 | .0 |
--Ian Allan