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Fantasy News

January 17, 2014

Fantasy Index Experts Poll (RB)

Bob Henry wins running backs position

Everybody took a beating at running back, where the injuries and underachievers were plentiful. But Bob Henry of Footballguys.com was able to patch together a win by hitting on his second-level picks.

All of the top 20 lists at running back were terrible. (Mine more so than anyone’s). But of all those crappy recommendations, Bob Henry’s were the least flawed. We’re grading on a curve (somebody’s got to win), so Henry muscles out first place at this position.

Everyone once in a while, an NFL team will win it’s division with a 9-7 or 8-8 record. That’s how the running backs played out amongst the experts this year. But Henry, one of the writers at Footballguys.com made the fewest mistakes, and that was enough for him to capture the win.

Henry, of course, is a name you’re all familiar with. He’s one of the few guys who’s won this competition twice. And he almost always finishes with an above-average entry.

BOB HENRY IN EXPERTS POLL
YearPlace
20006th
20021st
20031st
20047th *
20064th *
200714th *
20088th
200913th
201013th
20113rd *
20126th

The finishes tagged an asterisk, those were years where we went with an expanded, 25-man field. For all of the other seasons, it was a 20-man competition. So Henry’s lifetime win-loss record in this thing, if you will, is 164-65. That is, he’s beaten 164 experts over the years, and 65 times other experts have come in ahead of him. That’s damn impressive.

This wasn’t one of his better draft boards, though. Looking back on it, there’s ton of stuff he would have liked to change. He started with Adrian Peterson, which was OK. Peterson had an off year, but he didn’t bust as badly as a bunch of other heralded backs. Then Henry’s next three were all cringe-worthy – Arian Foster, Doug Martin and Trent Richardson.

He went with Jamaal Charles 5th, which was a little higher than most.

At 6th and 7th, Henry went with C.J. Spiller and Ray Rice, so you’re probably wondering how he managed to win this thing.

But everybody screwed up the top end of board with the running backs. And the rest of Henry’s top 20 was very well put together. He had the three other top-5 backs in his top 11, and almost all of other choices finished between 6th and 15th among the running backs that were named. No standout, “how he’d come up with that guy” picks, but he chipped away with steady values.

Nobody in this group went with Jamaal Charles (the top scorer) No. 1. Christopher Liss of Rotowire.com came closest, putting him at No. 2, but he made enough other mistakes that he remarkably finished in last.

I was so concerned about this, that I double-checked the scoring. To the naked eye, Liss’ list looks better than Henry’s, yet Henry won and Liss finished all the way down in last. How is that possible?

It came down to the teens. They each named five guys that the other guy did not. Liss hit on one of those (Ryan Mathews) and missed on four – Montee Ball, Vick Ballard, David Wilson and Lamar Miller. Henry came up with value on all but one of his five, hitting on Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, Reggie Bush and LeVeon Bell (he missed on Darren McFadden).

As a disclaimer, my own picks were terrible in this category. Looking at the magazine, I’ve got Foster and Martin as the top 2 backs. They were both underperforming even before they got hurt. In the magazine, I carefully laid out the argument why Richardson was overrated and overhyped, but ranked him 4th anyway. And while I poked around at the idea that Charles would be a lot better and catch a lot more passes, I didn’t have the balls to put him any higher than 5th. I put Montee Ball 10th, when it was in fact the other three running backs selected in the second round that were good – Bell, Bernard and Lacy.

Scoring up those picks, I would have beaten only two of the 20 experts. So I understand how the carefully laid plans in June can turn sour.

Ladd Biro of Fantasy Fools was the 2nd place finishers in this category, followed by L’Roy Hale of Fantasy First.

In our overall standings (and we’ve got just quarterbacks left now), Hale is the leader, followed by Henry and Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports. Hale is a first-time participant in this poll. Henry and Pianowski are both long-time veterans trying to become the first to win three titles.

I will try to get quarterbacks graded by the end of the day, so we can crown our new champion.

EXPERTS POLL, Running backs
RkAnalystCompanyPoints
1.Bob HenryFootballguys.com69,393
2.Ladd BiroFantasy Fools68,564
3.L'Roy HaleFantasy First68,272
4.Scott PianowskiYahoo! Sports68,255
5.Sam HendricksFantasy Football Guidebook67,937
6.Cory BoniniKFFL67,889
7.Scott SachsPerfectSeasonFFB.com67,871
8.Paul CharchianLeagueSafe67,689
9.Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks67,380
10.Bill EnrightFantasy Football Champs67,365
11.Pretzel MayFantasy Draft Master67,131
12.Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind66,977
13.Mike ClayPro Football Focus66,965
14.John Moore2012 Fantasy Index Open66,690
15.Christopher HarrisESPN66,564
16.Alan SatterleeDynasty Football Warehouse66,474
17.Micah JamesFFMagicMan66,403
18.Tony HolmFantasySharks.com66,032
19.David DoreyThe Huddle64,593
20.Chris LissRotowire64,406
EXPERTS POLL, Overall (one position left)
RkAnalystCompanyOverall
1.L'Roy HaleFantasy First253,117
2.Bob HenryFootballguys.com251,095
3.Scott PianowskiYahoo! Sports251,001
4.Ladd BiroFantasy Fools249,868
5.David DoreyThe Huddle249,868
6.Alan SatterleeDynasty Football Warehouse249,659
7.Cory BoniniKFFL249,586
8.Micah JamesFFMagicMan249,529
9.Scott SachsPerfectSeasonFFB.com248,726
10.Mike ClayPro Football Focus248,679
11.Chris LissRotowire248,458
12.Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind248,421
13.Tony HolmFantasySharks.com247,566
14.Bill EnrightFantasy Football Champs247,255
15.Christopher HarrisESPN246,923
16.Sam HendricksFantasy Football Guidebook246,431
17.Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks245,747
18.John Moore2012 Fantasy Index Open245,474
19.Paul CharcianLeagueSafe244,930
20.Pretzel MayFantasy Draft Master243,211

-- Ian Allan

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