It's almost time to stop talking about the Super Bowl; almost. There are still some fantasy nuggets left to mine, from what we can conclude about 2013 to what we can predict for 2014. I've got eight to file away and remember when we start seriously planning for next season.
1. Peyton Manning won't be as good next year. This year, Manning got all the personal quarterback records. He cares about that stuff. But he'd trade a whole lot of them for a 2nd Super Bowl ring, and that's what next year will be about. A stronger running game will be critical, and so will more plays that look like passes but end up being runs. The whole year should be about getting to the Super Bowl with an offense that may be less potent but is safer, and doesn't rely so much on the pass in the playoffs. Manning will still be a top quarterback, but I won't be the guy drafting him early in the first round in anticipation of another 50 TDs. By the way, he'll turn 38 next month.
2. Seahawks Defense a fantasy difference-maker. Like every Super Bowl winner (and loser, and everyone else), the Seahawks will lose some players in the offseason. But two of their top three pass rushers are under contract (Cliff Avril and Chris Clemons), free agent Michael Bennett is considered a strong candidate to return, and they've got other candidates to step up (e.g. Bruce Irvin). Their secondary is great, and Percy Harvin might be the league's best kick returner. Defenses can be unpredictable, but it's hard to see anyone else ranking No. 1 next season.
3. Will the Broncos give Eric Decker big money? Decker is a free agent, and while he's put up big numbers in each of the last two seasons for the Broncos, is he a difference-maker? In three postseason games he caught 8 passes for 111 yards and no touchdowns. If Denver lets him walk it will likely have a lesser wideout joining Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, another reason to lower expectations for Manning and the Denver offense. Somebody will probably invest heavily in Decker; the Broncos could use that money to improve a weaker area than receiver.
4. How high to draft Percy Harvin? If Harvin can stay healthy, it's clear he'll be a huge part of Seattle's offense next year, as a runner, receiver and (in leagues that give credit for that production) returner. This should remain a fairly conservative, run-based offense, and while that's a reason to downgrade whoever else the Seahawks put out on the field, it might be a plus for Harvin, who will be part of that running game. I suspect he'll be overdrafted in fantasy leagues, since Seattle probably won't use him as a No. 1 wideout, but his touches should be consistent, and rushing yards count just as much (more in some leagues). Seattle isn't certain to retain Sidney Rice or Golden Tate for next year, either.
5. Knowshon Moreno headed out of town? Moreno had a huge season for the Broncos, but didn't do anything of note in the postseason, and the Broncos gradually gained trust in Montee Ball as both a runner and in pass protection. Moreno looked pretty ordinary down the stretch, a bad sign I think for how he's likely to do with another team. Should a team like the Browns, say, commit big money to him as their starting running back, they might regret it. I was high on Ball last preseason and am heartened by his play down the stretch, but a little wary -- Denver might still add to the position if Moreno leaves (or they could try to bring him back as part of a more run-focused attack, in which case they'd split the work), or work in another youngster as the No. 2. The more you look at it, the more it seems like Denver's record-setting offense could change a lot in the offseason.
6. Seattle's running game might change. Marshawn Lynch turns 28 in April and he's been kind of heavily used in recent years. Including the postseason, he touched the ball more than 400 times in 2013. There's an off-the-field issue pending, and the team has what seems to be a capable backup in Robert Turbin and another guy, Christine Michael, who they drafted in the second round last year. Lynch has the look of a player who could see his workload reduced next season. I'm not sure how far you could realistically drop a talented back on a great team in fantasy drafts, but I think more of a timeshare has to at least be considered. Plus there's Harvin around to account for some of the team's rushing production.
7. Broncos to face tougher schedule. We're careful not to overrate strength of schedule, but it's a factor, and could be an issue for the Broncos next year. In 2013 they faced the NFC East and AFC South, which offered up very soft defenses from Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Jacksonville (and none of the rest were particularly good). In 2014 they'll play the NFC West and AFC East, which offers up very strong defenses from Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona, and some that aren't too shabby (Jets, Patriots, Bills, Rams -- no pushovers there, anyway). It was proved in the Super Bowl that a great defense can cause some problems for Denver. They'll see more of that type of defense in 2014.
8. Seahawks schedule might be easier. In 2013 Seattle faced the NFC South (Carolina, Tampa Bay and New Orleans had solid defenses) and AFC South (mostly soft defenses). In 2014 it will be the NFC East (they're terrible) and AFC West (at least in terms of yards allowed, none of those teams ranked higher than 20th). The Seahawks have a tough row to hoe in their own division, but the rest of their schedule shouldn't be that daunting.
A lot can change between now and next season, but the good (?) news is, the offseason is short. Free agency next month, the draft not long after that, minicamps, training camps, exhibition games, and then we're there. I'm already looking forward to talking more about it all in the weeks and months to come.