Seattle's defense came out on top against Denver's offense? But does that mean more teams should be focusing on that side of the ball? Is it even true?
“Defense wins championships.” Since Sunday’s game, I think I’ve seen that in a couple of dozen outlets. You can have all the fancy offensive numbers you want in the regular season, but come playoff time, it will be the best defense that wins.
But is that true?
Let me go back to the numbers I posted last week, in which I observed that for this first time ever, this was probably one of the top 10 offenses of all time going against one of the top 10 defenses.
Starting in 1978 (when they went to the 16-game season and also liberalized the passing game with some blocking and coverage rules changes). For each year, I looked at the numbers of points scored and allowed, and compared that to the league average. That gave me an adjusted top 20 on each side of the ball.
The 2000 Ravens, by this measure, had the best defense of all time (well, of the last 35 years). They allowed only 10.3 points per game – less than half of the league average. The 2007 Patriots had the best offense, scoring over 15 points more per game than the league average for that season.
Anyway, using those numbers, you can see that of the top 20 defenses of all time, eight of those groups made the playoff. Of those eight, all but one also won the Super Bowl.
For offenses, half of the top 20 made the Super Bowl (slightly more). But the success rate in that final game wasn’t nearly as good. Just 4-6 in those final games.
I’ve got them tagged in the charts below. A black dot (•) for a Super Bowl loss. Two dots (••) for a Super Bowl win.
On the chart below, the “points” shows the production for said team. The “average” shows the league-wide number for all team. And the “Percentage” ties those two numbers together (meaning low is good for defenses, and high is good for offenses).
| BEST DEFENSES (16 game season) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Avg | Pct |
| 2000 | ••Baltimore Ravens | 10.3 | 20.7 | 50% |
| 2002 | ••Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12.3 | 21.7 | 57% |
| 1986 | Chicago Bears | 11.7 | 20.5 | 57% |
| 1985 | ••Chicago Bears | 12.4 | 21.5 | 57% |
| 2000 | Tennessee Titans | 11.9 | 20.7 | 58% |
| 2006 | Baltimore Ravens | 12.6 | 20.7 | 61% |
| 2005 | Chicago Bears | 12.6 | 20.6 | 61% |
| 2013 | ••Seattle Seahawks | 14.4 | 23.4 | 62% |
| 2001 | Chicago Bears | 12.7 | 20.2 | 63% |
| 1994 | Cleveland Browns | 12.8 | 20.3 | 63% |
| 2008 | ••Pittsburgh Steelers | 13.9 | 22.0 | 63% |
| 2011 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 14.2 | 22.2 | 64% |
| 1996 | ••Green Bay Packers | 13.1 | 20.4 | 64% |
| 2001 | Philadelphia Eagles | 13.0 | 20.2 | 64% |
| 2013 | Carolina Panthers | 15.1 | 23.4 | 64% |
| 2011 | San Francisco 49ers | 14.3 | 22.2 | 65% |
| 1999 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13.6 | 20.8 | 65% |
| 1990 | ••New York Giants | 13.2 | 20.1 | 66% |
| 2001 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13.3 | 20.2 | 66% |
| 2010 | •Pittsburgh Steelers | 14.5 | 22.0 | 66% |
| BEST OFFENSES (16 game season) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Avg | Pct |
| 2007 | •New England Patriots | 36.8 | 21.7 | 170% |
| 1998 | Minnesota Vikings | 34.8 | 21.3 | 163% |
| 2000 | St. Louis Rams | 33.8 | 20.7 | 163% |
| 2013 | •Denver Broncos | 37.9 | 23.4 | 162% |
| 1991 | ••Washington | 30.3 | 19.0 | 160% |
| 1993 | San Francisco 49ers | 29.6 | 18.7 | 158% |
| 1999 | ••St. Louis Rams | 32.9 | 20.8 | 158% |
| 2011 | Green Bay Packers | 35.0 | 22.2 | 158% |
| 1994 | ••San Francisco 49ers | 31.6 | 20.3 | 156% |
| 2001 | •St. Louis Rams | 31.4 | 20.2 | 156% |
| 1983 | •Washington Redskins | 33.8 | 21.8 | 155% |
| 2011 | New Orleans Saints | 34.2 | 22.2 | 154% |
| 2012 | New England Patriots | 34.8 | 22.8 | 153% |
| 2004 | Indianapolis Colts | 32.6 | 21.5 | 152% |
| 1984 | •Miami Dolphins | 32.1 | 21.2 | 151% |
| 1991 | •Buffalo Bills | 28.6 | 19.0 | 151% |
| 2006 | San Diego Chargers | 30.8 | 20.7 | 149% |
| 2009 | New Orleans Saints | 31.9 | 21.5 | 148% |
| 1998 | ••Denver Broncos | 31.3 | 21.3 | 147% |
| 2010 | New England Patriots | 32.4 | 22.0 | 147% |
How meaningful are those numbers? You can say that in championship games, defenses have tended to be more reliable – 7-1 is better than 4-6. But more offenses were able to make it to the championship game.
And of the eight previous Super Bowl winners, all but one were quarterbacked by a franchise guy selected in the first round (Drew Brees was the exception, selected early in the second). You still need to have a good quarterback. Russell Wilson was efficient on Sunday (with no individual defensive player putting up eye-popping numbers, I would have given the MVP to Wilson). Brady, Brady, Roethlisberger, Peyton, Eli, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Eli, Flacco and Wilson. Those guys were all quarterbacking at a high level. In the last 20 years, the only “lesser” type quarterbacks who’ve won it have been Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.
Maybe there’s some truth in the “defense wins championships” deal, but you’re going to need other parts as well – definitely a quarterback.
--Ian Allan