Peyton Manning finishes 2013 with record numbers in the regular season, then lays an egg on the biggest stage. Where does he stand all-time against the likes of Montana, Brady, Bradshaw, Marino and Unitas?

Where does Peyton Manning now fit in the big picture? He’ll be 38 next month, and his career is nearing its end. For this year, he put together one of the best regular seasons ever, with more yards and more touchdowns than anyone ever before, but ending with a clunker in the Super Bowl, failing to make the proper adjustments against a great Seattle defense.

Manning is just 1-2 in Super Bowls, and he’s had interceptions returned for touchdowns in both of the losses. Other great quarterbacks have lifted mediocre teams to championship games, only to be overwhelmed by opponents that were simply way better – think Fran Tarkenton in the ‘70s and John Elway in the ‘80s. Manning’s Super Bowl teams had enough talent to win – they just didn’t.

So setting aside the possibility that Manning might still win a couple of Super Bowls, which would change his body of work, where does he fit relative to the other great quarterbacks all time?

I’ll take a stab at it. I’ve got the regular season and playoff numbers in front of me.

I’m going to focus on the Super Bowl era. I don’t want to get into trying to debate guys like Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman and Otto Graham. I never saw any of those guys plays, and the game has changed too much. When Graham was winning his championships in the ‘50s, the league had only 12 teams.

I will start by making the assumption that greatest quarterback ever won 100 games. Only 12 are in that group, so the candidates are as follows. I’m listing these dozen not by total wins but by winning percentage. So 100 wins gets you onto the list, then I’m ranking them by winning percentage.

Now if you want to go off championships, then your top guys would be Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. They both went 4-0 in Super Bowls. Tom Brady went 3-2 in Super Bowls, and John Elway went 2-3. Troy Aikman (who didn’t make it to 100 regular-season wins) went 3-0 in Super Bowls, so maybe toss him in there as well.

But that’s overly simplistic. If you go that route, “Who’s the greatest quarterback?” starts to be the same as “What team is the greatest?” If you want to look at teams, then we’re debating ‘70s Steelers vs. ’80s 49ers vs. ‘90s Cowboys. But I want to look at just quarterbacks.

Think of it as how these guys might have done if you switched them around. If Drew Brees had been the quarterback of the Steelers in the ‘70s, would have they won four Super Bowls? And if Joe Montana had been drafted by the Packers in the early ‘90s, would his career be better or worse than Brett Favre’s? That kind of thing.

For me, I don’t see any one quarterback standing head and shoulders above the rest. All of these guys were very good. But football – as we were reminded on Sunday – is a team game. None of these quarterbacks are good enough that you can simply surround them by a cast of regular guys and get championships. It’s the same as with the running backs. O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Earl Campbell, LaDainian Tomlinson – none of those guys in their prime was able to even get a team to the Super Bowl. It takes a team.

Looking at the 100-game winners, I don’t see much difference between the best of the best. I think there’s a top tier that should be considered kind of interchangeable, and that’s a club that maybe should include a half dozen. I’m putting them in this order (and feel free to weigh in with your own opinions in the comments section).

1. Peyton Manning
Unbelievable regular-season numbers in a lot of seasons. A coach on the field. If we could time-machine him back to the Steelers of the ‘70s or the 49ers of the ‘80s, he probably would have gone 4-0 in the Super Bowl games – just like Bradshaw and Montana did. In both college and the pros, has had some tendency to come up a little short in the very big games, so I won’t argue that he’s significantly better than the other elite quarterbacks. Among quarterbacks with at least 12 playoff starts, he is one of only two with a losing record.

But I’ve got to put somebody in the top spot. Of all of the great quarterbacks, Manning is the only one where I’m really confident he was have been outstanding on any team in any era. Stick him on an essentially any team with any offensive line, and that team would have a winning record and finish with a top-level passing game. With his quick decision-making and release, he can cover up for a porous offensive line. Manning was drafted by a 3-13 team that had allowed 62 sacks. In his first season there (behind essentially the same line) he was sacked only 22 times. He’s been a league MVP a record five times.

2. Joe Montana
I am torn. I almost put Montana in the top spot. He won over 70 percent of his games in the regular season, and he won at that same rate in the postseason. Clutch. He grades out higher than any of the other quarterbacks in terms of coming through when the chips were down – fourth quarters and big games. Won all of his Super Bowls and had a 127.8 passer rating in those four games. Montana definitely benefitted from being in the perfect situation. He had Bill Walsh as his coach. All of those 49ers teams also had good defenses. And he also had good receivers – never more so than when throwing to Jerry Rice and John Taylor. Had Montana been drafted by any other number of teams, would he even be in the mix to be one of the top 20 quarterbacks of all time? Maybe. He definitely showed some ability to play at his best when it was the most important at Notre Dame – that was before he ever met Walsh or Rice. And he showed some ability to do things with a lesser cast and in a lesser offense as an old guy in his last two years in Kansas City (29 TDs versus 16 interceptions in 25 games). When you look at per-game numbers and adjust for different eras and system, Montana’s in the same ballpark statistically with these modern-day guys like Manning and Brees. Definitely better in big games and key situations than any of these guys. Durability, however, must be factored in somewhere. After becoming San Francisco’s starter, he missed 50 starts in the next 13 years – only four 16-game seasons. Manning didn’t miss any games in his first 13 seasons. That’s got to count for something. If you’re looking at teams (QB, coach, defense, weapons), then Montana beats Manning by a mile. If you’re looking at each guy when he’s healthy and dialed in, probably a slight edge to Montana – he’s the guy you’d name your starter in a Super Bowl game. But when you look at the overall body of work – all the production in all of the games – I’m putting Montana just a little behind Manning.

3. Tom Brady
As with Montana, harder to grade because of the team around him. When he won those first three Super Bowls, he was definitely helped along by a great supporting cast – those teams had really good defenses. Bill Belichick is his coach, so he’s always been helped by the quality of the group around him – they went 11-5 with Matt Cassel at quarterback in 2008. How good would Brady have been had he been selected by the Browns, Jaguars or Panthers? With Manning, I’m positive he still would have been damn good. With Brady, I don’t have that same confidence. Later in his career, Brady in the postseason has been pretty similar to Manning – has let some playoff games and Super Bowls slip away that he could have won if he’d played better. He’s 9-8 in his last 17 playoff games. On the Brady-Manning statistical front, I can add on Brady’s behalf that a couple of years back, I looked at the composite red zone numbers of Brady versus Manning over about 10 years. They were almost identical, except Brady threw far fewer interceptions in that part of the field.

4. Brett Favre
My gut tells me that Favre is right there with the other guys in this top group. Project him into where Montana and Brady were drafted, and he’d be just as good. Great overall production. Great durability. Had some clutch ability – came through with a lot of big plays at just the right moment. He was great in Green Bay, and also had that terrific late-career season with the Vikings. The strike against him is that he was a little bit too much of a gunslinger at times, especially late in his career. Threw key, game-losing interceptions late in his last two conference title games. Ends career with 1-1 record in Super Bowls. With both of his Super Bowl appearances, everything around him was right – coaching, defense and plenty of weapons.

5. Drew Brees
If you’re going to put Manning, Brady and Favre in the top tier, than you must also include Brees. Unbelievable numbers, piling up the yards and touchdowns. Like Manning and Brady, is an offensive coordinator on the field, finding matchups and exploiting weaknesses. He’s 35, so this is partially a projection – he’s got some years left. Has won one Super Bowl – just like Favre and Manning. Of all quarterbacks with more than 10 playoff games, only four others have thrown more than twice as many touchdowns as interceptions (Montana, Flacco, Warner and Eli Manning). Brees has thrown four times as many touchdowns as interceptions (24 TDs, 6 interceptions) in his 11 playoff games. Assuming he keeps playing like he’s been playing for another few seasons, he’ll move past at least Favre. Like Montana, he was helped by being paired with an offensive genius (Sean Payton), but Brees also had a big season in San Diego before signing with New Orleans.

6. Johnny Unitas
Many will consider it blasphemous that Unitas isn’t ranked a lot higher. With his smarts, he was definitely a Manning-Brees type quarterback in the ‘50s and ‘60s. A coach on the field, and he was calling his own plays – didn’t have help whispering in his helmet. Off-the-charts numbers compared to what others were doing at that time. Similar to Brees in that he wasn’t a physical monster with a rocket-launcher arm. But note that while he was one of the great ones, he really wasn’t any better than Manning-Brees in terms of winning championships. He directed the Colts to championships in 1958-59, but there were only 12 teams in the NFL. In his only Super Bowl win, he completed only 3 of 9 passes, with 2 interceptions and a fumble before getting knocked out in the second quarter. His touchdown in that game came on a tipped pass that was carried 75 yards for a score. In his other Super Bowl appearance, Unitas came off the bench in the third quarter and completed only 11 of 24 passes against a Jets defense that was pretty ordinary (three other AFL defenses allowed fewer points).

7. John Elway
He’s hard to grade. He got to three Super Bowls early in his career, but he lost all of them. The numbers weren’t there for most of his career. In his first 10 seasons, he threw under 20 TDs in all but one of them. How much of that is his fault? And how much can be attributed to playing with lesser guys and in a lesser system? Joe Montana was paired with Bill Walsh; Drew Brees was working with Sean Payton. Elway was handcuffed to Dan Reeves for most of his time in Denver. He patched up some of that later in his career, when Mike Shanahan showed up. In 1995-97, he had 26-27 TDs versus only 11-14 interceptions in each of those three seasons – showing some ability to be a high-level passer. Like Montana, had a knack for pulling out games late. For physical tools, he’s definitely the No. 1 guy in this group – a stronger arm than any of the other quarterbacks with 100 wins, and definitely better mobility. But I don’t think he had the same head for the game as Manning-Brady-Montana-Brees-Unitas, and I think brains are more important than physical ability.

8. Dan Marino
Great individual and regular-season numbers. Didn’t do much in the playoffs. Very similar to Brees and Manning, with the great regular-season numbers, but they’ve both at least won one Super Bowl. Marino made it to only one, and he ran into a very good San Francisco defense that shut him down. Per chart in the Manning capsule, 8-10 record in the postseason, which is the worst of the 21 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in playoff games.

9. Terry Bradshaw
He’s an Elway-type. Rocket-launcher arm – great physical tools. Like Montana, he’s 4-0 in Super Bowls. Won a lot of games, including a 14-5 record in the postseason. But he played with a phenomenal defense for most of his career, making it harder for him to grade. Only in a couple of seasons late in his career did he get the chance to run a more wide-open system. Note that in the 1978-80 seasons, when the game was opening up and he was throwing, he was playing with two Hall of Fame receivers and still threw at least 20 interceptions in each of those seasons. Gut tells me that if you put any of those other quarterbacks on the Steelers, they still would have won four Super Bowls. But would Bradshaw have been able to take Elway’s spot and get to the Super Bowl five times with Denver? Could he replace Marino and do any better in Miami? I don’t think so. He didn’t get to work with an offensive wizard like Bill Walsh or Sean Payton, so we don’t get to know how he would have fared in one of those systems.

Three other quarterbacks won at least 100 games: Fran Tarkenton, Jim Kelly and Warren Moon. They’re all good quarterbacks. They’re all in the Hall of Fame. But I don’t think they’re good enough to be included in the debate of the greatest quarterback ever. You could argue that some of those guys might be better than the tail end of the guys I listed. Tarkenton and Kelly got to a combined seven Super Bowls. I’m sure Tarkenton and Kelly are confident they would have won just as many Super Bowls as Bradshaw if they’d been playing with that defense. But all three of these quarterbacks, I think, would be passed by a few of the guys who won fewer than 100 regular-season games.

EXPANDING THE SEARCH

In my initial sweep, I looked only at quarterbacks with 100 or more wins. If we also include guys who won at least 90 games, there are another 14 guys to consider. Again, 90-99 wins gets you on the list below, and then I’ve got them sorted in order of winning percentage.

Of this group, four are worth mentioning, I think. Bart Starr won five NFL titles, but three of those were way back in early ‘60s, when it was a 14-team league. When Green Bay won Super Bowl II, Starr finished that season with 9 TD passes and 17 interceptions. I have little confidence he was good as guys like Montana and Manning. Give him credit though, for going 9-1 in playoff games, and completing the highest percentage of passes in league history (at the time of his retirement, when the game was vastly different). … Steve Young had some great seasons, but he had a short career and also was definitely helped along by being surrounded by a great cast. And despite that great group, he won just one Super Bowl. … Troy Aikman is a Bradshaw-type guy. 3-0 in Super Bowls, but it’s guesswork trying to gauge how good he would have been in other offenses and other systems. Didn’t get a chance to do enough. … Ben Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls and turns 32 next month. He’s put up some really good numbers in some of his seasons. He could wind up in the top tier before long.

Ultimately, I don’t think there’s any clean answer on this issue. This position isn’t like wide receiver, where Jerry Rice stands head and shoulders above everyone else. It’s more like running backs, where you’re left arguing between Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and others – they’re all great. With quarterbacks, I don’t think you can say that any one of the top half dozen guys is much better than the others.