Andy Richardson started the discussion earlier in the day in which he wondered about the value of selecting quarterbacks after the third round. Very few selected after that point ever amount to anything. He submitted a list of all quarterbacks drafted after the third round in the last 10 years, and I think the best ones on it were David Garrard and Kyle Orton.
But let’s compare that to another position. When a team selects a wide receiver in the fourth or fifth round, what is the probability that said guy will wind up helping the team wind some games.
For this one I looked at just the fourth and the fifth. Left out the sixth and seventh rounds, because I wanted to keep the numbers manageable. Down in the sixth, seventh rounds, you’re really picking through the scrubs.
This is a subjective list. There have been 119 wide receivers selected in either the fourth or fifth round since 2000. I flagged in bold players where my gut feel was that the team would consider picking them again if it was back on the clock and in the same spot.
The success rate seems to be about 25 percent. I found 32 “success” wide receivers.
Again, this is subjective. I could have included Kris Durham, Niles Paul, Doug Gabriel and Legedu Naanee on the success list. And similarly, I could have tossed out some of the guys that are bolded. Bobby Wade and Mike Thomas were slot receivers who caught 40-plus passes in multiple seasons, but they weren’t big success stories.
Matt Slater isn’t a fantasy-relevant receiver, but he’s been a good special teams player for New England, so I’m counting him as a success.
Brandon Marshall is the big star of this group. He should have gone in the first round. Guys who maybe should have gone in the second would include (I think) Brandon Lloyd and maybe Riley Cooper, Brian Hartline, Mike Williams (Bucs), and Cecil Shorts III.
It’s just a ballpark estimate. And ballpark estimate to me indicates that the success rate is better with wide receivers than it was with quarterbacks.
RECEIVERS SELECTED IN 4TH/5TH ROUND SINCE 2000 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Pick | Player | Team |
2000 | 99 | Gari Scott | Eagles |
2000 | 103 | Danny Farmer | Steelers |
2000 | 111 | Trevor Gaylor | Chargers |
2000 | 114 | Anthony Lucas | Packers |
2000 | 121 | Avion Black | Bills |
2000 | 143 | Windrell Hayes | Jets |
2000 | 151 | Joey Jamison | Packers |
2000 | 154 | Muneer Moore | Broncos |
2000 | 165 | Troy Walters | Vikings |
2001 | 116 | Milton Wynn | Rams |
2001 | 124 | Justin McCareins | Titans |
2001 | 131 | Cedric James | Vikings |
2001 | 136 | Vinny Sutherland | Falcons |
2001 | 140 | Alex Bannister | Seahawks |
2001 | 148 | Scotty Anderson | Lions |
2001 | 153 | Onomoe Ojo | Saints |
2001 | 154 | Darnerian McCants | Redskins |
2001 | 159 | Eddie Berlin | Titans |
2001 | 162 | Jonathan Carter | Giants |
2002 | 123 | Ron Johnson | Ravens |
2002 | 142 | Terry Charles | Chargers |
2002 | 144 | Herb Haygood | Broncos |
2002 | 149 | Jason McAddley | Cardinals |
2002 | 151 | Jake Schifino | Titans |
2002 | 162 | Freddie Milons | Eagles |
2002 | 170 | Sam Simmons | Dolphins |
2003 | 106 | Shaun McDonald | Rams |
2003 | 124 | Brandon Lloyd | 49ers |
2003 | 127 | Sam Aiken | Bills |
2003 | 139 | Bobby Wade | Bears |
2003 | 143 | Justin Gage | Bears |
2003 | 158 | Adrian Madise | Broncos |
2003 | 159 | Jon Olinger | Falcons |
2003 | 167 | Doug Gabriel | Raiders |
2003 | 169 | J.R. Tolver | Dolphins |
2004 | 99 | Carlos Francis | Raiders |
2004 | 105 | Samie Parker | Kansas City |
2004 | 108 | Jerricho Cotchery | Jets |
2004 | 120 | Ernest Wilford | Jaguars |
2004 | 134 | Johnnie Morant | Raiders |
2004 | 149 | Maurice Mann | Bengals |
2004 | 157 | D.J. Hackett | Seahawks |
2004 | 163 | Drew Carter | Panthers |
2004 | 164 | P.K. Sam | Patriots |
2005 | 114 | Jerome Mathis | Texans |
2005 | 116 | Craphonso Thorpe | Kansas City |
2005 | 118 | Chase Lyman | Saints |
2005 | 131 | Fred Gibson | Steelers |
2005 | 136 | Roydell Williams | Titans |
2005 | 140 | Airese Currie | Bears |
2005 | 155 | Larry Brackins | Buccaneers |
2005 | 174 | Rasheed Marshall | 49ers |
2006 | 100 | Michael Robinson | 49ers |
2006 | 103 | Brad Smith | Jets |
2006 | 104 | Cory Rodgers | Packers |
2006 | 109 | Jason Avant | Eagles |
2006 | 111 | Demetrius Williams | Ravens |
2006 | 115 | Will Blackmon | Packers |
2006 | 119 | Brandon Marshall | Broncos |
2006 | 125 | Skyler Green | Cowboys |
2006 | 130 | Domenik Hixon | Broncos |
2006 | 144 | Marques Hagans | Rams |
2006 | 147 | Jeremy Bloom | Eagles |
2007 | 103 | Isaiah Stanback | Cowboys |
2007 | 118 | Ryne Robinson | Panthers |
2007 | 128 | Chris Davis | Titans |
2007 | 142 | Steve Breaston | Cardinals |
2007 | 146 | Aundrae Allison | Vikings |
2007 | 157 | David Clowney | Packers |
2007 | 169 | Roy Hall | Colts |
2007 | 172 | Legedu Naanee | Chargers |
2008 | 105 | Will Franklin | Kansas City |
2008 | 106 | Marcus Smith | Ravens |
2008 | 125 | Arman Shields | Raiders |
2008 | 126 | Lavelle Hawkins | Titans |
2008 | 128 | Keenan Burton | Rams |
2008 | 136 | Kenneth Moore | Lions |
2008 | 153 | Matt Slater | Patriots |
2009 | 107 | Mike Thomas | Jaguars |
2009 | 108 | Brian Hartline | Dolphins |
2009 | 124 | Louis Murphy | Raiders |
2009 | 127 | Austin Collie | Colts |
2009 | 140 | Johnny Knox | Bears |
2009 | 141 | Kenny McKinley | Broncos |
2009 | 144 | Jarett Dillard | Jaguars |
2009 | 160 | Brooks Foster | Rams |
2010 | 99 | Mardy Gilyard | Rams |
2010 | 101 | Mike Williams | Buccaneers |
2010 | 107 | Marcus Easley | Bills |
2010 | 108 | Jacoby Ford | Raiders |
2010 | 156 | David Reed | Ravens |
2010 | 159 | Riley Cooper | Eagles |
2010 | 165 | Kerry Meier | Falcons |
2011 | 107 | Kris Durham | Seahawks |
2011 | 111 | Edmond Gates | Dolphins |
2011 | 112 | Greg Salas | Rams |
2011 | 114 | Cecil Shorts III | Jaguars |
2011 | 123 | Tandon Doss | Ravens |
2011 | 132 | Kealoha Pilares | Panthers |
2011 | 148 | Denarius Moore | Raiders |
2011 | 153 | Jeremy Kerley | Jets |
2011 | 155 | Niles Paul | Washington |
2012 | 96 | Chris Givens | Rams |
2012 | 100 | Travis Benjamin | Browns |
2012 | 104 | Joe Adams | Panthers |
2012 | 107 | Devon Wylie | Kansas City |
2012 | 118 | Jarius Wright | Vikings |
2012 | 121 | Keshawn Martin | Texans |
2012 | 122 | Nick Toon | Saints |
2012 | 134 | Greg Childs | Vikings |
2012 | 152 | Danny Coale | Cowboys |
2012 | 166 | Marvin Jones | Bengals |
2012 | 168 | Juron Criner | Raiders |
2013 | 101 | Ace Sanders | Jaguars |
2013 | 102 | Josh Boyce | Patriots |
2013 | 123 | Chris Harper | Seahawks |
2013 | 128 | Quinton Patton | 49ers |
2013 | 144 | Kenny Stills | Saints |
2013 | 161 | Tavarres King | Broncos |
—Ian Allan