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Rookie wide receivers

Success rates in fourth, fifth rounds higher for pass catchers

Andy Richardson started the discussion earlier in the day in which he wondered about the value of selecting quarterbacks after the third round. Very few selected after that point ever amount to anything. He submitted a list of all quarterbacks drafted after the third round in the last 10 years, and I think the best ones on it were David Garrard and Kyle Orton.

But let’s compare that to another position. When a team selects a wide receiver in the fourth or fifth round, what is the probability that said guy will wind up helping the team wind some games.

For this one I looked at just the fourth and the fifth. Left out the sixth and seventh rounds, because I wanted to keep the numbers manageable. Down in the sixth, seventh rounds, you’re really picking through the scrubs.

This is a subjective list. There have been 119 wide receivers selected in either the fourth or fifth round since 2000. I flagged in bold players where my gut feel was that the team would consider picking them again if it was back on the clock and in the same spot.

The success rate seems to be about 25 percent. I found 32 “success” wide receivers.

Again, this is subjective. I could have included Kris Durham, Niles Paul, Doug Gabriel and Legedu Naanee on the success list. And similarly, I could have tossed out some of the guys that are bolded. Bobby Wade and Mike Thomas were slot receivers who caught 40-plus passes in multiple seasons, but they weren’t big success stories.

Matt Slater isn’t a fantasy-relevant receiver, but he’s been a good special teams player for New England, so I’m counting him as a success.

Brandon Marshall is the big star of this group. He should have gone in the first round. Guys who maybe should have gone in the second would include (I think) Brandon Lloyd and maybe Riley Cooper, Brian Hartline, Mike Williams (Bucs), and Cecil Shorts III.

It’s just a ballpark estimate. And ballpark estimate to me indicates that the success rate is better with wide receivers than it was with quarterbacks.

RECEIVERS SELECTED IN 4TH/5TH ROUND SINCE 2000
YearPickPlayerTeam
200099Gari ScottEagles
2000103Danny FarmerSteelers
2000111Trevor GaylorChargers
2000114Anthony LucasPackers
2000121Avion BlackBills
2000143Windrell HayesJets
2000151Joey JamisonPackers
2000154Muneer MooreBroncos
2000165Troy WaltersVikings
2001116Milton WynnRams
2001124Justin McCareinsTitans
2001131Cedric JamesVikings
2001136Vinny SutherlandFalcons
2001140Alex BannisterSeahawks
2001148Scotty AndersonLions
2001153Onomoe OjoSaints
2001154Darnerian McCantsRedskins
2001159Eddie BerlinTitans
2001162Jonathan CarterGiants
2002123Ron JohnsonRavens
2002142Terry CharlesChargers
2002144Herb HaygoodBroncos
2002149Jason McAddleyCardinals
2002151Jake SchifinoTitans
2002162Freddie MilonsEagles
2002170Sam SimmonsDolphins
2003106Shaun McDonaldRams
2003124Brandon Lloyd49ers
2003127Sam AikenBills
2003139Bobby WadeBears
2003143Justin GageBears
2003158Adrian MadiseBroncos
2003159Jon OlingerFalcons
2003167Doug GabrielRaiders
2003169J.R. TolverDolphins
200499Carlos FrancisRaiders
2004105Samie ParkerKansas City
2004108Jerricho CotcheryJets
2004120Ernest WilfordJaguars
2004134Johnnie MorantRaiders
2004149Maurice MannBengals
2004157D.J. HackettSeahawks
2004163Drew CarterPanthers
2004164P.K. SamPatriots
2005114Jerome MathisTexans
2005116Craphonso ThorpeKansas City
2005118Chase LymanSaints
2005131Fred GibsonSteelers
2005136Roydell WilliamsTitans
2005140Airese CurrieBears
2005155Larry BrackinsBuccaneers
2005174Rasheed Marshall49ers
2006100Michael Robinson49ers
2006103Brad SmithJets
2006104Cory RodgersPackers
2006109Jason AvantEagles
2006111Demetrius WilliamsRavens
2006115Will BlackmonPackers
2006119Brandon MarshallBroncos
2006125Skyler GreenCowboys
2006130Domenik HixonBroncos
2006144Marques HagansRams
2006147Jeremy BloomEagles
2007103Isaiah StanbackCowboys
2007118Ryne RobinsonPanthers
2007128Chris DavisTitans
2007142Steve BreastonCardinals
2007146Aundrae AllisonVikings
2007157David ClowneyPackers
2007169Roy HallColts
2007172Legedu NaaneeChargers
2008105Will FranklinKansas City
2008106Marcus SmithRavens
2008125Arman ShieldsRaiders
2008126Lavelle HawkinsTitans
2008128Keenan BurtonRams
2008136Kenneth MooreLions
2008153Matt SlaterPatriots
2009107Mike ThomasJaguars
2009108Brian HartlineDolphins
2009124Louis MurphyRaiders
2009127Austin CollieColts
2009140Johnny KnoxBears
2009141Kenny McKinleyBroncos
2009144Jarett DillardJaguars
2009160Brooks FosterRams
201099Mardy GilyardRams
2010101Mike WilliamsBuccaneers
2010107Marcus EasleyBills
2010108Jacoby FordRaiders
2010156David ReedRavens
2010159Riley CooperEagles
2010165Kerry MeierFalcons
2011107Kris DurhamSeahawks
2011111Edmond GatesDolphins
2011112Greg SalasRams
2011114Cecil Shorts IIIJaguars
2011123Tandon DossRavens
2011132Kealoha PilaresPanthers
2011148Denarius MooreRaiders
2011153Jeremy KerleyJets
2011155Niles PaulWashington
201296Chris GivensRams
2012100Travis BenjaminBrowns
2012104Joe AdamsPanthers
2012107Devon WylieKansas City
2012118Jarius WrightVikings
2012121Keshawn MartinTexans
2012122Nick ToonSaints
2012134Greg ChildsVikings
2012152Danny CoaleCowboys
2012166Marvin JonesBengals
2012168Juron CrinerRaiders
2013101Ace Sanders Jaguars
2013102Josh Boyce Patriots
2013123Chris Harper Seahawks
2013128Quinton Patton 49ers
2013144Kenny Stills Saints
2013161Tavarres King Broncos

—Ian Allan

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