Factoid

May 29, 2014

Sacks vs. Interceptions

Which defenses are the best to target?

When selecting a defense, is it better to go after sacks or interceptions? And by “go after” I’m talking stats. Let’s forget about who’s on which team and the system and who’s coaching and which starter just got hurt and whatnot. Looking just at how the team fared last year, are you better targeting a team that had a bunch of sacks? Or a team that had a bunch of interceptions?

I’m leaving fumbles out, because that’s seems to be largely a volatile, luck-driven category.

I looked at the last 10 years, so that’s about 320 teams.

Of that group of teams, 44 had at least 22 interceptions. That group in their next season averaged 16.5 interceptions and 36 sacks.

With sacks, on the other hand, 43 defenses have had at least 45 sacks in the last. That group in their next season averaged 15.9 interceptions and 40 sacks.

So for this quick glance, sacks win. If you pick out of that group (relative to picking for interceptions) you tend to come out about 4 sacks ahead while only a half interception behind.

This trend isn’t super meaningful for this year because there are too many crossover defenses. Carolina, Buffalo, Kansas City, Arizona and Seattle all had at least 44 sacks and 20 interceptions last year.

In the charts below, cross-over teams (ones appearing on both lists) are tagged with dots. Teams from last year are in bold.

DEFENSES WITH 45-PLUS SACKS
.	.	.	.	Next	Next
Year	Team	Int	Sack	Int	Sack
2006	San Diego Chargers	16	61	30	42
2006	• Baltimore Ravens	28	60	17	32
2013	Carolina Panthers	20	60	?	?
2008	Dallas Cowboys	8	59	11	42
2013	• Buffalo Bills	23	57	?	?
2007	New York Giants	15	53	17	42
2013	St. Louis Rams	14	53	?	?
2012	St. Louis Rams	17	52	14	53
2012	Denver Broncos	16	52	17	41
2008	Pittsburgh Steelers	20	51	12	47
2012	Cincinnati Bengals	14	51	20	43
2011	Minnesota Vikings	8	50	10	44
2005	Seattle Seahawks	16	50	12	41
2011	Philadelphia Eagles	15	50	8	30
2005	Miami Dolphins	14	49	8	47
2013	New Orleans Saints	12	49	?	?
2008	Philadelphia Eagles	15	48	25	44
2004	Atlanta Falcons	19	48	16	37
2011	Baltimore Ravens	15	48	13	37
2010	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	48	11	35
2011	New York Giants	20	48	21	33
2009	Minnesota Vikings	11	48	15	31
2013	New England Patriots	17	48	?	?
2009	Pittsburgh Steelers	12	47	21	48
2012	Green Bay Packers	18	47	11	44
2003	• Baltimore Ravens	24	47	21	39
2005	Pittsburgh Steelers	15	47	20	39
2010	Oakland Raiders	12	47	18	39
2005	Jacksonville Jaguars	19	47	20	35
2010	San Diego Chargers	16	47	17	32
2007	New England Patriots	19	47	14	31
2006	Miami Dolphins	8	47	14	30
2010	• Green Bay Packers	24	47	31	29
2004	Philadelphia Eagles	17	47	17	29
2013	Kansas City	21	47	?	?
2013	Arizona Cardinals	20	47	?	?
2005	San Diego Chargers	10	46	16	61
2007	Dallas Cowboys	19	46	8	59
2010	New York Giants	16	46	20	48
2006	• Green Bay Packers	23	46	19	36
2005	Indianapolis Colts	18	46	15	25
2011	Cincinnati Bengals	10	45	14	51
2008	Minnesota Vikings	12	45	11	48
2004	Indianapolis Colts	19	45	18	46
2005	• Carolina Panthers	23	45	14	41
2003	New York Giants	10	45	14	40
2004	• Buffalo Bills	24	45	17	38
2004	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	45	17	36
2007	Seattle Seahawks	20	45	9	35
2004	New England Patriots	20	45	10	33

DEFENSES WITH 22-PLUS INTERCEPTIONS
.	.	.	.	Next	Next
Year	Team	Int	Sack	Int	Sack
2011	Green Bay Packers	31	29	18	47
2005	Cincinnati Bengals	31	28	19	35
2007	San Diego Chargers	30	42	15	28
2009	Green Bay Packers	30	37	24	47
2003	New England Patriots	29	41	20	45
2006	• Baltimore Ravens	28	60	17	32
2013	Seattle Seahawks	28	44	?	?
2003	Minnesota Vikings	28	37	11	39
2009	Buffalo Bills	28	32	11	27
2009	New Orleans Saints	26	35	9	33
2004	Carolina Panthers	26	34	23	45
2008	Baltimore Ravens	26	34	22	32
2009	Philadelphia Eagles	25	44	23	39
2003	Kansas City	25	36	13	41
2010	New England Patriots	25	36	23	40
2003	• Baltimore Ravens	24	47	21	39
2010	• Green Bay Packers	24	47	31	29
2004	• Buffalo Bills	24	45	17	38
2003	St. Louis Rams	24	42	6	34
2005	Chicago Bears	24	41	24	40
2012	Chicago Bears	24	41	19	31
2006	Chicago Bears	24	40	16	41
2005	Minnesota Vikings	24	34	21	30
2013	• Buffalo Bills	23	57	?	?
2006	• Green Bay Packers	23	46	19	36
2005	• Carolina Panthers	23	45	14	41
2011	San Francisco 49ers	23	42	14	38
2003	San Francisco 49ers	23	42	9	29
2011	New England Patriots	23	40	20	37
2010	Philadelphia Eagles	23	39	15	50
2004	Seattle Seahawks	23	36	16	50
2004	San Diego Chargers	23	29	10	46
2008	Cleveland Browns	23	17	10	40
2006	New England Patriots	22	44	19	47
2003	Miami Dolphins	22	44	15	36
2007	Tennessee Titans	22	40	20	44
2012	Arizona Cardinals	22	38	20	47
2011	Seattle Seahawks	22	33	18	36
2009	Baltimore Ravens	22	32	19	27
2010	Atlanta Falcons	22	31	19	33
2009	Carolina Panthers	22	31	17	31
2008	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22	29	19	28
2008	Chicago Bears	22	28	13	35
2007	Indianapolis Colts	22	28	15	30
2008	Green Bay Packers	22	27	30	37
2004	Houston Texans	22	24	7	37

—Ian Allan

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