Jacksonville had the unusual deal where it used two second-round picks on wide receivers. It went with Marqise Lee early in the second round, then grabbed Allen Robinson from Penn State late in that round.
The natural tendency is to assume Lee will be better. He was, after all, selected earlier. If the Jaguars like Robinson more than Lee, one would presume they would have selected him earlier.
But Robinson can play. He had the unusual deal last year where he caught 72 more passes than anybody else on the Nittany Lions roster.
What is the probability that Lee will be better.
Setting aside these actual players (their size, speed, ability, etc.) I can say that 14 times in the last 30 years, a team has selected a wide receiver in either the first or second round, and then came back and selected another wide receiver within a round.
I got those pairs out and scored them. Three of them I’ll call draws. Either both players sucked or there wasn’t a big difference between them.
On five occasions, the receiver selected first was better.
On six occasions, the receiver selected later was better.
Hmm.
One thing we can say on behalf of these later-drafted receivers. You’ve got to figure that when a team uses a second premium draft pick on that same position, that could be either a sign that they’re a little nervous about the first guy they’ve chosen (he’s had an injury or whatever) or they really like the second guy, feeling he should have been selected a lot higher.
| RECEIVER TAKEN FIRST WAS BETTER | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | Taken First | Taken Second |
| Bengals | 2008 | Jerome Simpson | Andre Caldwell |
| Browns | 2000 | Dennis Northcutt | JaJuan Dawson |
| Colts | 1998 | Jerome Pathon | E.G. Green |
| Giants | 1998 | Joe Jurevicius | Brian Alford |
| Seahawks | 1988 | Brian Blades | Tommy Kane |
| RECEIVER TAKEN SECOND WAS BETTER | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | Taken First | Taken Second |
| Bears | 1999 | D’Wayne Bates | Marty Booker |
| Browns | 2009 | Brian Robiskie | Mohamed Massaquoi |
| Cardinals | 2003 | Bryant Johnson | Anquan Boldin |
| Eagles | 1990 | Mike Bellamy | Fred Barnett |
| Patriots | 1983 | Darryal Wilson | Stephen Starring |
| Rams | 1988 | Aaron Cox | Willie Anderson |
| TIE OR DON'T CARE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | Taken First | Taken Second |
| Seahawks | 1991 | Doug Thomas | David Daniels |
| Steelers | 1991 | Jeff Graham | Ernie Mills |
| Washington | 2008 | Devin Thomas | Malcolm Kelly |
—Ian Allan