One final wrap-up on the Fanex Analysis Draft, which just concluded. In particular, how it should affect your end-game strategy.
A lot of owners in a lot of leagues don’t care much about defenses and kickers. With that in mind, does it not make sense to roll those picks a couple of rounds earlier? That can be the difference between getting your No. 5 and your No. 15 player at one of those positions.
Even if you don’t think those positions are as valuable, we all agree (don’t we?) that it’s better to get your No. 5 kicker than your No. 15 kicker. (Or is there a subset out there that has such little confidence in their picking ability that they can’t successfully pick a good kicker?)
In my particular draft, I moved into the end game strategy with about six rounds left. I had four running backs on my roster – LeSean McCoy, Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley and Lamar Miller. This is a best-ball league with NO ROSTER MOVES so I was interested in obtaining supporting backs from those teams. I wanted Chris Polk (in case McCoy gets hurt) and I wanted Brandon Bolden (in case Ridley got hurt or benched).
The Eagles also have Darren Sproles, of course, but I see him as more of a third-down guy. If McCoy gets hurt, I think they’re going to Polk. Same deal with New England; it has Shane Vereen, but he’s more of a Sproles-type – a receiver rather than a runner. I think the next guy in line there (for running purposes) is Bolden. He’s actually averaged more yards per carry than Ridley two years in a row.
Miller and Thomas aren’t part of the equation, because Khiry Robinson, Mark Ingram and Knowshon Moreno were all gone. Those guys have to fly solo.
While I value these running backs (Polk, Bolden) I also would like to get good kickers and defenses. So I must weigh the possibility that no other team will even select Polk and Bolden. Looking at that way, I can help myself to great kickers/defenses, then circle back to the running backs in the final round.
This worked out nicely. I selected Gostkowski and Hauschka as my kickers – two of the top 4 on my board. And I grabbed St. Louis and New Orleans as my defenses, which are both in my top 5 (Saints were the only team that didn’t score a defensive touchdown last year, but that’s largely a chance-affected stat category – I think they’ll be a top-5 team in sacks, and Jairus Byrd could add some takeaway pop to that secondary).
As an aside, this is a no-moves and no lineups league. So the correct play is to use two roster spots on kickers and defenses. I spent a few hours researching a couple years ago ago. With the best-ball dimension, you get a nice increase from having two at a position. When you go up to three, then guys just start getting in each other’s way.
Case in point: Gostkowski and Hauschka. Gostkowski scored a league-high 158 points last year, so you might think it would be fine to use him (and just him) as your kicker). But adding Hauschka (140 points) pushed that total to 190 points for the season. Two beats one. Three franchises in this league went with either one kicker or one defense, but they’re wrong. Trust me.
Anyway, for this year, I left those two backs to the end. They were both there. Had they been chosen, there were some other fallback options available. I like Bryce Brown of the Bills, and he wasn’t even chosen. I don’t think Ahmad Bradshaw or BenJarvus Green-Ellis was selected.
Ultimately I put together a nice, balanced roster this year.
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady, Sam Bradford
This is the weakest position on my team. I need Bradford to stay healthy, and I need Brady to bounce back the way I think he will.
RUNNING BACK
LeSean McCoy (Chris Polk), Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley (Brandon Bolden), Lamar Miller
I’m starting two each week, and this is a PPR league. That’s why Thomas (70-plus recs) looks like a viable option. I was the last owner to select a second running back, but I believe I’ll be fine here. Nice depth, and built for the long haul.
WIDE RECEIVER
Randall Cobb, Julian Edelman, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandin Cooks, Markus Wheaton
I’ve very excited about this group. Those first four guys might catch 400 passes, and that’s how you win in PPR. Cooks and Wheaton, those are younger guys, but they also might be very good. I’ll be using four every week. I will have by far the best wide receivers in this league.
TIGHT END
Kyle Rudolph, Jared Cook
I think Rudolph will bounce back and emerge, but I look pretty average here.
KICKER
Stephen Gostkowski, Steven Hauschka
The Nos. 1 and 4 kickers on my board.
DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS
St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints
Both teams have great pass rushes. I should be one of the top couple of finishers at this position.
Overall, I think I’ve got a championship caliber team. Injuries play a huge role in this kind of competition, but I’ve got a team that’s built to withstand some bad luck. In seven years in this competition, I’ve got three championships, a 2nd, 4th, 5th and one next-to-last. This looks like the same kind of team. I expect it will be in the top 3, and with a little luck I’ll add that fourth title.
If you want to read the player analysis comments of the other owners, they can be accessed at the league website.
—Ian Allan