Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater were all selected in the first round of this year's draft, and to hear the teams talk, they might not play much as rookies. The Jaguars say they want Bortles to sit all year, Manziel is behind Brian Hoyer in Cleveland, and Matt Cassel is expected to start in Minnesota.
But recent history indicates two of these first-round quarterbacks will play plenty as rookies. Over the last 10 years, there have been 28 quarterbacks selected in the first round. More than 60 percent (17) have attempted close to 300 passes in their rookie seasons. All 17 of those quarterback also threw at least 10 TD passes. Two-thirds (19) have thrown more than 1,000 yards.
We're not saying two of these rookies will necessarily be successful NFL quarterbacks. As we've talked about in the past, the track record is particularly poor for quarterbacks selected in the second half of the first round, like Manziel and Bridgewater. But a couple of them will probably play extensively in their first NFL seasons.
The 28 quarterbacks selected in the first round the last 10 years, sorted by pass attempts in their rookie seasons, are presented below.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2004-2013 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Team | Att | Com | YdP | TDP |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Colts | 627 | 339 | 4374 | 23 |
2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | Rams | 590 | 354 | 3512 | 18 |
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | Panthers | 517 | 310 | 4051 | 21 |
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | Browns | 517 | 297 | 3385 | 14 |
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | Dolphins | 484 | 282 | 3294 | 12 |
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Falcons | 434 | 265 | 3440 | 16 |
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | Ravens | 428 | 257 | 2971 | 14 |
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Jaguars | 413 | 210 | 2214 | 12 |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Redskins | 393 | 258 | 3200 | 20 |
2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Cardinals | 377 | 214 | 2547 | 11 |
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Lions | 377 | 201 | 2267 | 13 |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | Jets | 364 | 196 | 2444 | 12 |
2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Titans | 357 | 184 | 2199 | 12 |
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | Bills | 306 | 180 | 1972 | 11 |
2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | Steelers | 295 | 196 | 2621 | 17 |
2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder | Vikings | 291 | 158 | 1853 | 13 |
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | Buccaneers | 290 | 158 | 1855 | 10 |
2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | Chargers | 197 | 95 | 1043 | 6 |
2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | 49ers | 165 | 84 | 875 | 1 |
2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | Broncos | 137 | 81 | 1001 | 9 |
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | Broncos | 82 | 41 | 654 | 5 |
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | Titans | 66 | 34 | 542 | 4 |
2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Raiders | 66 | 36 | 373 | 2 |
2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | 16 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | Browns | 8 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | Giants | 8 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman | Bills | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | Redskins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson