The Jaguars will likely have a rookie wide receiver in the starting lineup this season, either Marqise Lee or Allen Robinson. Maybe both, if the multi-week hamstring injury suffered by Cecil Shorts III last week lingers. Both Lee and Robinson were selected in the second round of May's draft. What can be expected from those rookies?
Over the last 10 years, there have been 40 wide receivers selected in the second round of the regular draft. (We're excluding supplemental pick Josh Gordon, though he did cost the Browns a second-round pick the following season, and did very well as a rookie.)
Of those 40 wideouts, only 5 reached 700 receiving yards in their rookie seasons, and only 2 caught more than 5 TDs. More than two-thirds (28 of 40) didn't even reach 400 yards in their rookie seasons.
Certainly, Lee or Robinson will be in good position to have the opportunity to beat the odds for rookie second-rounders. Still, it's tough for those kind of players to come into fantasy value right off the bat.
The table below shows the first-year number for second-round wideouts drafted from 2004 through 2013.
ROOKIE NUMBERS, 2ND-ROUND WIDEOUTS, 2004-2013 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Team | No | Yds | TD |
2008 | 42 | Eddie Royal | Broncos | 91 | 980 | 5 |
2008 | 49 | DeSean Jackson | Eagles | 62 | 912 | 4 |
2011 | 58 | Torrey Smith | Ravens | 50 | 841 | 7 |
2004 | 62 | Keary Colbert | Panthers | 47 | 754 | 5 |
2011 | 59 | Greg Little | Browns | 61 | 709 | 2 |
2008 | 33 | Donnie Avery | Rams | 53 | 674 | 3 |
2006 | 52 | Greg Jennings | Packers | 45 | 632 | 3 |
2009 | 50 | Mohamed Massaquoi | Browns | 34 | 624 | 3 |
2011 | 44 | Titus Young | Lions | 48 | 607 | 6 |
2013 | 41 | Robert Woods | Bills | 40 | 587 | 3 |
2005 | 35 | Reggie Brown | Eagles | 43 | 571 | 4 |
2013 | 59 | Aaron Dobson | Patriots | 37 | 519 | 4 |
2007 | 44 | Sidney Rice | Vikings | 31 | 396 | 4 |
2010 | 39 | Arrelious Benn | Buccaneers | 25 | 395 | 2 |
2004 | 54 | Darius Watts | Broncos | 31 | 385 | 1 |
2011 | 64 | Randall Cobb | Packers | 25 | 375 | 1 |
2012 | 45 | Alshon Jeffery | Bears | 24 | 367 | 3 |
2008 | 36 | Jordy Nelson | Packers | 33 | 366 | 2 |
2013 | 34 | Justin Hunter | Titans | 18 | 354 | 4 |
2012 | 54 | Ryan Broyles | Lions | 22 | 310 | 2 |
2012 | 63 | Rueben Randle | Giants | 19 | 298 | 3 |
2012 | 43 | Stephen Hill | Jets | 21 | 252 | 3 |
2005 | 39 | Mark Bradley | Bears | 18 | 230 | 0 |
2010 | 60 | Golden Tate | Seahawks | 21 | 227 | 0 |
2010 | 36 | Dexter McCluster | Chiefs | 21 | 209 | 1 |
2012 | 33 | Brian Quick | Rams | 11 | 156 | 2 |
2006 | 36 | Chad Jackson | Patriots | 13 | 152 | 3 |
2005 | 55 | Roscoe Parrish | Bills | 15 | 148 | 1 |
2008 | 34 | Devin Thomas | Washington | 15 | 120 | 1 |
2009 | 36 | Brian Robiskie | Browns | 7 | 106 | 0 |
2008 | 41 | James Hardy | Bills | 9 | 87 | 2 |
2007 | 45 | Dwayne Jarrett | Panthers | 6 | 73 | 0 |
2008 | 53 | Limas Sweed | Steelers | 6 | 64 | 0 |
2007 | 51 | Steve Smith | Giants | 8 | 63 | 0 |
2005 | 61 | Vincent Jackson | Chargers | 3 | 59 | 0 |
2005 | 58 | Terrence Murphy | Packers | 5 | 36 | 0 |
2006 | 44 | Sinorice Moss | Giants | 5 | 25 | 0 |
2008 | 51 | Malcolm Kelly | Washington | 3 | 18 | 0 |
2008 | 46 | Jerome Simpson | Bengals | 1 | 2 | 0 |
2004 | 50 | Devery Henderson | Saints | 0 | 0 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson