When putting together forecasts for Week 1, we need to keep in mind that running games tend to need a little time to get dialed in. Blockers and running backs need to get their timing down, so typically rushing numbers aren’t as good at the start of the year.
The best rushing numbers instead come in December. Part of that can be attributed to changing weather, and some is due to running plays becoming more second nature to offenses.
This isn’t just theory. Check out these numbers, which show the week-by-week rushing averages for the 2003-2013 time period.
| RUSHING PRODUCTION BY WEEK SINCE 2003 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Game | Yards | TD | Points |
| 1 | 108 | .71 | 15.0 |
| 2 | 112 | .82 | 16.1 |
| 3 | 111 | .80 | 15.9 |
| 4 | 116 | .80 | 16.4 |
| 5 | 113 | .78 | 16.0 |
| 6 | 116 | .87 | 16.8 |
| 7 | 118 | .79 | 16.5 |
| 8 | 113 | .83 | 16.3 |
| 9 | 116 | .83 | 16.6 |
| 10 | 112 | .77 | 15.8 |
| 11 | 116 | .85 | 16.7 |
| 12 | 118 | .84 | 16.8 |
| 13 | 119 | .87 | 17.1 |
| 14 | 119 | .88 | 17.2 |
| 15 | 119 | .82 | 16.8 |
| 16 | 119 | .82 | 16.8 |
For starters, note that I got around the issue of bye weeks by using “games” rather than week. That way, there’s the same number of games being played every week. Game 6 was played in Week 6 for some teams and Week 7 for others. But it makes it more of a steady, apples-to-apples comparison.
What you’re looking at are yards (averaging rushing yards per team), touchdowns (average rushing touchdowns per team) and fantasy points (using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
The Week 1 rushing numbers are the worst by far. Teams in the last 11 years have averaged only 108 rushing yards per game. That’s 4 yards lower than any of the other 15 games, on average.
The lowest touchdown numbers (again, by far) have come in Week 1. Teams have scored only 250 rushing touchdowns in 352 season openers over the last 11 years. It takes a while for ground games to hit their stride.
The best four weeks for rushing are the last four weeks of the season. On this chart, there are four weeks when teams averaged 119 rushing yards per game (11 more than on opening day). Those are the last four weeks of the season – Weeks 14-17.
If you want to look at fantasy production, which combines yards and touchdowns, then there are seven weeks above where teams average 16.7 fantasy points per game or more. All but one of those weeks have occurred in the last six weeks of the season.
Conclusion: If you’re trying to guess when a running back might pop off for about 200 yards and 4 TDs, the odds of that happening are a lot better late in the year.
—Ian Allan