The Patriots looked pretty crappy on Monday night. Lousy offensive line, and the pass catchers aren’t good enough. Julian Edelman is a solid, tough slot guy, but Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson simply aren’t good enough. The Patriots have nobody but themselves to blame there; they signed LaFell and Amendola, and they can’t seem to draft wide receivers properly.
In addition, Rob Gronkowski may be slipping – he seems like a good tight end now, rather than a franchise guy.
Before we start shoveling in this grave, however, let’s keep in mind that New England has the best coaching staff in football. They’re the among the best at developing and polishing players, and they know how to break down and analyze game films of opponents.
With this in mind, the Patriots are a team that will tend to get better. And the differences are enough that they show up in the numbers that you can look at.
For scoring, for example, note that New England has scored more points in the second half of the season in eight of the last 10 years. If you look at the difference between the first eight games and the last eight games over the last 10 years (that’s two separate 80-game chunks) the Patriots have been 297 points better in the second halves of the season. That’s impressive.
| POINTS PER GAME, 1st v. 2nd halves | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | G 1-8 | G 9-16 |
| 2004 | 26.0 | 28.6 |
| 2005 | 22.5 | 24.9 |
| 2006 | 23.4 | 24.8 |
| 2007 | 41.4 | 32.3 |
| 2008 | 21.0 | 30.3 |
| 2009 | 28.1 | 25.3 |
| 2010 | 27.4 | 37.4 |
| 2011 | 27.8 | 36.4 |
| 2012 | 32.8 | 36.9 |
| 2013 | 22.4 | 33.1 |
| total | 27.3 | 31.0 |
If you want to look at just touchdowns, which is obviously pretty similar, the Patriots over the last 10 years have scored 37 more touchdowns in the second half of the season – about a half touchdown per game.
(Of course, a half a touchdown on Monday night still would have left them over three touchdowns behind Kansas City.)
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS, 1st v. 2nd halves | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | G 1-8 | G 9-16 |
| 2004 | 21 | 24 |
| 2005 | 21 | 23 |
| 2006 | 23 | 22 |
| 2007 | 38 | 29 |
| 2008 | 16 | 26 |
| 2009 | 24 | 23 |
| 2010 | 22 | 34 |
| 2011 | 26 | 31 |
| 2012 | 28 | 32 |
| 2013 | 16 | 28 |
| total | 235 | 272 |
New England’s running game usually improves. This is a stat that could also be helped along by changing weather, but over the last 10 years, the Patriots have run for 611 more yards in the second half of the season (about 8 per game)
| RUSHING YARDS PER GAME, 1st v. 2nd | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | G 1-8 | G 9-16 |
| 2004 | 114 | 153 |
| 2005 | 78 | 111 |
| 2006 | 128 | 118 |
| 2007 | 136 | 95 |
| 2008 | 132 | 153 |
| 2009 | 114 | 126 |
| 2010 | 107 | 140 |
| 2011 | 112 | 109 |
| 2012 | 150 | 123 |
| 2013 | 121 | 138 |
| total | 119 | 127 |
The passing data isn’t as compelling. In seven of the 10 years, the Patriots have actually thrown for more yards in the first eight games. But in fairness I’ll toss it out there as well. The Patriots had the league’s most-improved passing game in the second half of last year, with an increase of 86 yards per game.
| PASSING YARDS PER GAME, 1st v. 2nd | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | G 1-8 | G 9-16 |
| 2004 | 237 | 232 |
| 2005 | 290 | 250 |
| 2006 | 225 | 224 |
| 2007 | 309 | 298 |
| 2008 | 208 | 266 |
| 2009 | 302 | 266 |
| 2010 | 228 | 275 |
| 2011 | 338 | 319 |
| 2012 | 303 | 302 |
| 2013 | 228 | 315 |
| total | 267 | 275 |
Bottom line: let’s not give up on Bill Belichick and his guys just yet.
—Ian Allan