Alex Smith plays against San Francisco for the first time on first time. They drafted him No. 1 overall, recall, and he took them to an NFC Championship game. The following year, Smith got hurt halfway through the year, then they stuck with Colin Kaepernick when he was playing pretty well.
Smith went from division-winning quarterback to having to hold the clipboard when San Francisco played against Baltimore in the Super Bowl. And they traded him away after the 2012 season.
You have to believe Smith would very much like to win and play well in this game.
But does that give him an advantage on Sunday? More notably (for fantasy purposes) does it make him more likely to put up good numbers?
It’s not easy to measure, but we can try. In my eyes, there have been 23 quarterbacks in the last 20 years who have gone back to play against the team where they really made their name. We can take those games, and then compare them against how the same quarterbacks did in their games the week before and the week after.
This how payback-type element fades over time, I looked only at those first meetings. For Drew Brees, for example, I am including only his 2008 start against the Chargers. Once 2012 rolls around, then it’s not as big of a deal – too many coaches and players have changed, and guys have moved on.
For players inside the division – Brett Favre in 2009, Donovan McNabb in 2010 – I included both the home and away meetings of that first year.
| QUARTERBACKS AGAINST THEIR FORMER TEAMS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 1994 | Jim Everett | W | 17 | 26 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
| 1994 | Jim Everett | W | 28 | 44 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
| 1994 | Joe Montana | W | 19 | 31 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
| 1995 | Warren Moon | W | 28 | 43 | 289 | 2 | 2 |
| 1995 | Vinny Testaverde | W | 17 | 27 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
| 1997 | Jeff George | W | 12 | 22 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
| 2002 | Drew Bledsoe | L | 28 | 45 | 302 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Drew Bledsoe | L | 32 | 51 | 328 | 2 | 4 |
| 2005 | Kurt Warner | L | 29 | 42 | 327 | 0 | 1 |
| 2005 | Kurt Warner | W | 27 | 39 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
| 2006 | Steve McNair | W | 29 | 47 | 373 | 3 | 2 |
| 2006 | Mark Brunell | W | 18 | 30 | 329 | 3 | 1 |
| 2008 | Chad Pennington | L | 26 | 43 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Chad Pennington | W | 22 | 30 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
| 2008 | Drew Brees | W | 30 | 41 | 339 | 3 | 0 |
| 2009 | Brett Favre | W | 24 | 31 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
| 2009 | Brett Favre | W | 17 | 28 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
| 2010 | Donovan McNabb | W | 8 | 19 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | Donovan McNabb | L | 17 | 31 | 295 | 2 | 3 |
| 2011 | Michael Vick | L | 19 | 28 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
| 2012 | Carson Palmer | L | 19 | 34 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | L | 29 | 49 | 386 | 3 | 1 |
| 2014 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | W | 25 | 37 | 268 | 1 | 2 |
The numbers become meaningful when you compare them with how the same passers fared in either their next game or their previous game.
Said quarterbacks were 15-8 in these payback games. They went only 20-21 in the sandwich games. There are three missing sandwich games because in 2008, Chad Pennington played against the Jets in the first and last games of the season – so there wasn’t another game on the other side. And Ryan Fitzpatrick has his post game coming on Sunday.
Quarterbacks completed 64 percent and averaged 270 yards in payback games. They completed 61 percent and averaged 264 yards in other games. Not a huge difference there.
In the 23 key games, quarterbacks threw 45 touchdowns (just short of two per game). They were well off that clip in the other games – 57 touchdowns in 43 games, or 1.33 TDs per game.
For interceptions, it’s 22 in 23 payback games – almost one per game. Not as many in the other games (38 in 43). I take this as a sign that the Prodigal Son quarterbacks were tending to try just a little harder against their old teams (maybe forcing a few throws).
No difference in workload – the quarterbacks averaged 35.6 pass attempts in both kinds of games.
—Ian Allan