Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it time to give up on Tom Brady? What will Kyle Orton do for Buffalo's offense? What should we expect from Toby Gerhart going forward? And more.
Question 1
Is it time to sit McCoy until further notice and what does Orton do for Buffalo?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
McCoy should start trending towards healthiness, I think. They’ve got offensive line issues, but he ran for 70-plus yards in each of their first two games. I think he can get back to being that kind of back in a hurry. As for Orton, I think he’ll be a better, more decisive downfield thrower than EJ Manuel, which could give a nice boost to the wide receivers there, Robert Woods and especially Sammy Watkins.
Question 2
Ian - In my league we had an owner email the league saying he was going to leave his D/ST slot empty in advance of the MNF game to protect a 1 point lead. He had NE going and in our league (they ended up with -3 fantasy points and he lost). Two owners strongly protested and it was decided that he had to play a defense and field a full lineup. I don't have a problem with him taking a zero for D/ST. Lots of them score negative points in our league these days. My question is twofold: how would you have adjudicated this matter and should scoring systems for D/ST try to minimize negative point totals? In our league this week 5 out of 10 starting D/ST were negative points. I like the team defense and special teams component but having a 'player' in your lineup should be an asset and not a potential negative (at least not as often as it's happening for defenses!). Thanks!
Kee Won Song (Pittsburgh, PA)
My gut tells me that everybody should have to field a lineup. It would be pretty ridiculous, don’t you think, if a third of the teams in your league chose not to include a defense in their lineup. It just smells wrong. It’s something that should be penned into your bylaws. Maybe change the scoring system so that defenses don’t finish with negative points. Or maybe look at what the lowest realistic score might be (minus 8, maybe) and add a rule in there that if an owner doesn’t field an active, playing defense in any given week, he takes a minus-10 at that position.
Question 3
What is up with Tom Brady? Drop him for Carson Palmer? Or just about anyone on waivers.
Karl Scheel (Ingleside, IL)
The Patriots will get things turned around, like they always do. In eight of the last 10 years, they’ve scored more points in the second half of last season. I remember the 2009 season, when Brady was struggling coming back from reconstructive knee surgery. Then they went out and beat Tennessee 59-0 and Brady was back. Last year Brady was struggling in September and October – similar to how he’s playing right now – and then he went out and put up 432 yards and 4 TDs in a 55-31 blowout over Pittsburgh. They’ll work things out at some point. But as iffy as he looked at Arrowhead, better to keep him parked on your bench then to be putting him in your lineup against Cincinnati.
Question 4
Any value keeping Gerhart at this point, e.g., if he is traded to a team with better O-line (Vikings?).
Robert Kurek (Blacksburg, VA)
He’s been terrible so far, and now he’s splitting time with Denard Robinson. Robinson actually played more in their last game. But let’s keep in mind that teams change. Jacksonville started 0-8 last year, averaging under 11 points in those games. The offense scored only 7 touchdowns in those games. But the offense was surprisingly serviceable in the second half of the season, averaging over 20 points, with 16 touchdowns in those eight games. Things change. So if and when the Jaguars kind of figure out what they’re doing, whoever has Gerhart at that point should have a top 15 or 20 running back for a nice stretch of games.
Question 5
Hi Ian, watching the Eagles game yesterday, I had a thought. I know it might be tough, but have you ever done a study on "letdown games"; where a team is coming off a tough, emotional divisional game (such as PHI vs WAS, Week 3?) Going back in my memory banks, it does seem like teams come out flat after a big win (or crushing loss) in a big game the week before. This could be an interesting tiebreaker between similarly-ranked players...Thanks!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
It’s an interesting concept. One that would be tough for me to look into, though, because of the problem of defining such games. More easily than that, I can look into how teams have fared the game after winning by 30-plus points or losing by 30-plus points. There can, I think, be issues with overconfidence and teams wanting to get back on track. That was definitely an issue with the Falcons last week in Minnesota, and probably to a lesser degree with the Bucs pulling the upset in Pittsburgh.
Question 6
In a PPR with 3 WR's, I have Calvin, Antonio, and Mike Wallace. I can swap out Wallace for Golden Tate. The new rankings say yes, but is it advisable when I have Calvin already? I guess I'm also surprised at how low you have Wallace ranked. He is a #1 WR and his QB just proved he is capable of some big games.
Dennis Thomas (Royal Oaks, CA)
Wallace isn’t playing this week. Miami has a bye. When they return to action, Wallace will be down a little. I rewatched a lot of that Miami-Oakland game on Wednesday. It occurred to me, while watching it, that Brian Hartline has worked his way back into the offense. In a couple of the early games, they were really pumping the ball to Wallace. He was their seemingly clear No. 1. But in the London game, it was back to more like 2013. Hartline caught 6 passes for 74 yards. He looked just as good as Wallace in that game. So when the revised rankings come out next Tuesday, the gap between those guys will have been tightened.
Question 7
I have Jimmy Graham as my starting tight end so I am all set there other then week 6 bye week. Do you see any tight ends out there at this time that might break out now or down the road. I am looking for a sleeper. Thanks, Jack Shelbrock
JOHN SHELBROCK (Frankenmuth, MI)
How about Clay Harbor? He caught all 8 passes they threw to him last week for Jacksonville. Could be a nice fill-in for Graham when he is down in Week 6.
Question 8
What do you make of this stat? Brady's 31.8 percent completion rate on throws more than 10 yards is the lowest in the NFL.
Chris Muschong (Dewitt, MI)
They’re not a great downfield passing team. They don’t have great pass catchers who are getting separation on those routes (Dobson, LaFell, Thompkins). And to make those kind of throws, you need an offensive line that’s really good – gotta give the quarterback time to throw. The Patriots have neither right now, which might have been a contributing factor in not even having Dobson or Thompkins active on Monday night. And Brady can take some blame too. I don’t think he’s necessarily great at delivering those deep throws. Recall, for example, that he missed a couple of big downfield passes in the AFC Championship game in January. In one on particular, he had Julian Edelman wide open for a 60-plus yard gain and simply missed him. But I don’t think we need to get too hung up on deep balls, because that’s not a huge part of that offense. You always hear about “vertical” offenses. The Patriots are more of a “horizontal” offense – quick throws after 3-step drops and using the wide receivers as decoys to create mismatches for running backs and tight ends. I think Brady can be OK. Let’s give him a few weeks to get things turned around.
Question 9
Hi Ian. Need immediately help, sorry. I'm 1-3 and can't afford to continue to slide. I have QBs Brady and Palmer, but could drop one to pick up Fitzpatrick or Tannehill. You seem to recommend Palmer (both this week and beyond), but CBS and ESPN don't feel his shoulder is progressing at all. What do you suggest?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
Let’s see what he does at practice today (if anything) but I don’t think Palmer is playing this week. Best option for Week 5 could be to plug in Drew Stanton. I re-watched the 49ers-Cardinals game on Wednesday, and I thought Stanton looked pretty good. He doesn’t pass quite as well as Palmer, but he’s got more mobility.
Question 10
Why the love for Jordan Cameron ? He's been targeted only 8 times in the 2 games he's played.
Donald DeKeyser (Green Bay, WI)
He had a shoulder injury. When healthy, he might be one of the top half-dozen tight ends in the league, and he’ll be a huge part of Cleveland’s passing offense. For ballpark purposes, to me he looks like a top-10 tight end going forward.
Question 11
I was surprised to see Moreno so high (much higher than Miller) on the redrafter this week. Was that put together before the news report that he was "still four weeks away" from playing, or do you really believe in him so much that he's worth the wait? Thanks.
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
Yes. When I did the redrafter, I was thinking Moreno might return in Week 6-7. Now it’s looking more like Week 8-9, or maybe even Week 10.
Question 12
Awesome Product! Can't wait for each new update. I followed your advice on Monte Ball this year. I have a trade offer: Phil Rivers for Ball. My qbs are Romo and Cousins. My other backs are Lacy, Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, and Rainey. Is it too early to bail on Ball?
STEVE CATES (Cheyenne, WY)
Running backs are more valuable than quarterbacks. That’s the nature of the game we play. So while Ball has been a disappointment thus far, I would still draft him before Philip Rivers. That said, when you look at your team’s specific situation, there is some sense in making the trade. I’ve got Rivers at 22.2 points per game, which is 2.6 more than Tony Romo. Conservatively, you might say Rivers is a 2-point upgrade over Romo at quarterback. Ball, on the other hand, is only a half point better than Bradshaw (11.2 to 10.8). So setting aside the possibility of guys getting hurt and what not, there is some merit in the idea of moving Ball for Rivers.
Question 13
I am in a 10 team Keeper league where we get to keep all guys drafted in rounds 9 through 12, but only if they stay on your roster (active or reserve) the entire season. First keeper counts as your next year round 12 pick, second keeper counts as round 11 pick, etc. I drafted Carlos Hyde, Kyle Rudolph, and Khiry Robinson as keepers. It's a 2 QB league with a small bench (just 6 reserve slots). A key challenge in this league is managing your bench during the bye weeks while still hanging on to keepers. I went with Jimmy Graham in round 1, three straight WRs ((D Thomas, AJ Green, Antonio Brown), then QBs Dalton and Romo. My first RB wasn't selected until round 7! Question: given that Kyle Rudolph is unlikely to be back for a long time, is it worth hanging onto him as a keeper for next year? Jimmy Graham's bye comes Week 6 and Rudolph will absolutely not be playing that game. Travis Kelce is available as a free agent. I am going to drop Donald Brown to pick up Kelce, but there will be circumstances where I will be pressed to drop Rudolph to make room for an injury replacement. If you think Rudolph is going to be worth a round 9 pick or better next year in a 10 team league, then logic dictates that I ought to hang onto him. Our scoring system is basically a modded standard scoring system where passing TDs count for 3 points, rushing TDs count for 4 points, and receiving TDs count for 5 points.
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
Rudolph will be a top-8 tight end on everyone’s draft board next year. He has some value. So I think the decision comes down to deciding how many points you’re willing to sacrifice this year. How many points (given your scoring system) are you likely to give up in Week 6? And given the nature of the scores in your league, is that likely to affect the outcome of your game? Those are the issues I’d be looking at.
Question 14
i really need a good opinion for this upcoming week. my runningbacks are extremely shallow due to ray rice beint done for the year. I have doug martin and mikler, who is on a bye this week. I need to make a pickup. Im stuck between mckinnon, reaves,and crowell.. could you give me ur opinion on best option for this week and longterm?
Michael Holmburg (Glenolden, PA)
McKinnon played Thursday night. It looks unlikely that Jonathan Stewart will play for Carolina, so there’s work available there. Reaves, Whittaker and Ogbonnaya. But these are all lesser options. I’m not sure that any of them will be any good, and I can’t guarantee Reaves will be the best of them. In fact, I don’t think he will be. So I think you’re looking at Crowell. Crowell has been played very well, averaging over 5 yards per carry. But Ben Tate should be back this week, so I’m not sure that Crowell will even be one of their two main backs.
Question 15
I'm thinking about trading Ahmad Bradshaw in a dynasty league. Potential offers are T.Y. Hilton or Larry Fitzgerald. I can replace Bradshaw with Reggie Bush and also have Ben Tate and Knowshon Moreno coming back soon. What are you thoughts?
SCOTT DENTON (Louisville, KY)
Do you want a now guy? Or do you want to look more to the future. Bradshaw is playing well right now. He’s caught 4 TDs, and he’s running more effectively than Trent Richardson. So Bradshaw has some value. But he’s an older back who’s had a lot of injuries, so I don’t see him as much of a long-term guy. Then again, what being offered isn’t much either. Hilton has looked just so-so this year. For dynasty purposes, I think I might rather have the rookie receiver there, Donte Moncrief. And Fitzgerald seems to be slowing down.
Question 16
What happened to Andre Caldwell since Sept. 23rd to drop off the charts? After I used your ranking to pick up.
Ray Phillips (Cornelius, NC)
I messed up the ranking of Caldwell in one of the products. I put in a lengthy explanation in one of the products last week – either September 24, September 26 or both. In short, I thought Caldwell might be very good filling in for Wes Welker, when Welker had the concussion and four-game suspension. But after two games, it became apparent that wouldn’t be the case. The Broncos were using more formations with two tight ends, and Caldwell wasn’t doing much when he was out there. So I went back into his projection to change him from being a viable “handcuff” receiver to simply a run-of-the-mill No. 4 receiver. In entering the numbers, however, I mishandled the numbers got his remaining 12-13 games matched up with his production if he were to be in that No. 3 role (with Welker or Sanders out all year). Hard to explain, but kind of like Igor getting the brains mixed up in Frankenstein. I have two-tiered projections for guys like this, one showing how they’ll do today, and one showing how they’d perform if elevated into the starting lineup. I mangled the Caldwell projection, and he ended up being a top-50 receiver. This happened once before, seven years ago. I have now added safeguards that I hope will help prevent it happening again.
Question 17
Std. League. I KIND of like my team - set with Brees, Forte and Julio, semi-set at RB 2, but really need someone to pan out (Joique, Sankey, McKinnon and Ryan Mathews) but am a little concerned with my receivers (Garcon, C Patterson and Gordon). We have a short, 4-man bench so holding Mathews and Gordon hurts for depth, but I'm hoping they pan out in the end. So my question is, are Garcon and Patterson trustworthy until Gordon - no guarantee - is back? Or should I be actively trying to package one of my lesser RBs with one of those guys for a better WR2?
Drew Bankston (Tyler, TX)
Two for one trades are always a good idea – especially in a league with a tiny bench. But Patterson and Garcon, while not superstars, I think are good enough that you should be able to find some viable starts between the pair of them.