The best division in the NFL, top to bottom, is the NFC East. Isn't that weird? People thought it would be one of the weakest, but it turns out to be the strongest. Funny how that works.
Oh, you disagree? They're winning games, you say, but they're all teams with plenty of holes? There are several teams in different divisions with a better shot of reaching the Super Bowl? They're about to get exposed as the season progresses?
Maybe; maybe not. As Bill Parcells said, you are what your record says you are. The Chargers are 4-1 and the Falcons are 2-3. Whether we think they're better or worse than that doesn't matter. All that matters is the record.
As a fantasy owner, you know how that goes. Maybe you're sitting on a great 1-4 team. Maybe the best 1-4 team in fantasy football history. But they're also the unluckiest, running into the top-scoring squad each week. Every Sunday, when a specific player has a career game, you can bet your team is facing them. And when a star underachieves at just the wrong time, it's your guy scoring single digits. But if your record says 1-4, that's what you are.
On the other side of the coin, you might be a terrible 5-0. You look like a genius at the top of the standings, but you know you're sneaking by teams that are better than yours. Did you catch the Calvin Johnson/Jimmy Graham owner this week? Maybe you faced the LeSean McCoy owner last week, too. The week before that, it was the team with Arian Foster. If someone faceplants, your team is the one benefiting from it. But no matter how bad your team really is, you're 5-0 and that's all that matters.
What matter now is what you do with your record going forward. A strong team with a weak record might be tempted to make changes, ditch players and consider trades in order to "shake things up." But the only thing that needs to be shaken up is your schedule, and there's nothing you can do about that. If you ditch your good players, you'll cut off any chance you might have at an epic rally. You just have to hope that your luck changes in time to save your season.
Likewise, if you're not as good as your record indicates, you need to prepare your roster for when your luck changes. You don't have a "team of destiny," and other owners won't always have players hurt or underperforming when they face you. You should work the waiver wire like you're 1-4, and seek out trades that makes your team better. Or you can gloat and hope your luck stays the same all year, but you know it's not likely.
Of course, the trade market works just the opposite. Teams with bad records get all the offers, and teams with great records are often left alone. It's going to take discipline to ignore what should be ignored and pursue what you need to pursue. But lucky teams can become unlucky teams quickly, and vice-versa.
We all have stories of the fantasy teams that started out 1-4, went on a tear and took the title. We also know teams that looked like a shoe-in for a bye and missed the post-season altogether. I think in many of those cases, the teams with bad records were patient and simply let their luck change, and their record improved as a result. And teams with good records didn't do enough to compensate when their luck went the other way, so they sank into mediocrity. Sometimes doing nothing is the best response, and other times it could be fatal to your playoff fortunes. But at some point, your luck has to change.
It just doesn't always change when we want. Maybe your team really is snake bit in 2014. Maybe any rally won't be enough to save your season. If that's the case, I hope you can remember the year you snuck into the playoffs, beat better teams and won a title you probably didn't deserve. And if you stay charmed all year, maybe it's payback for that year you were snake bit yourself. If luck tends to even out over the course of a season, it's even more apparent over the course of several years. That doesn't make the situation better now, of course, but maybe it puts things in perspective.
But really, it's too early for that kind of talk. You can still turn things around. Improve your roster, but don't gut a good team because the schedule has been unkind. And if you've had a blessing of a schedule, prepare for the inevitable curse. Pretend your record is as good as your team, and get motivated to improve before you get exposed. You can collect those wins and still become the team that deserves your playoff spot.
You are what your record says you are, but you don't have to be bound by it. We're still less than halfway through the season, so nothing is set in stone. Good luck this week.
Is your record better (or worse) than you really are? What are you doing about it? Share your thoughts below.