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Factoid

Hot and cold kickers

When is the right time to make a waiver move on a kicker?

When do you pull the plug on a struggling kicker? If you’ve got a guy who’s been a great scorer in the past but has struggled for a few games, when do you kick him to the curb? Similarly, when a seemingly lesser kicker has had a couple of 11-point games, should we be rushing to the waiver wire to claim him?

Steven Hauschka and Mason Crosby come to mind as kickers I thought would be in the top 5 but thus far haven’t performed at that level. Should they be replaced by a guy like Dan Carpenter, who’s been very good for the Bills.

At the kicker position, I like to look more at the team than the actual player. Accuracy isn’t that important. If a guy hits 84 or 88 percent, who cares? They’re all good (expect for the guys who have been kicking for the Lions).

More important is the quality of the supporting cast – how often it can move the kicker into scoring position.

And if you look at win-loss records in recent years, this is easily underscored.

Since the league went to 32 teams in 2002, 29 teams have won at least 13 games. Only one of those teams ranked lower than 13th in kicking points. Over half of those teams ranked in the top 4 in kicking points, and over two thirds ranked in the top 6.

So if you’re of the belief that Seattle will win 13-plus games (which looks like a safe assumption) the correct move is to not worry too much about the fluctuation of week-to-week results. You stick with Hauschka.

Similarly, if you feel if a team is a big pile of whale crap, best to stay away from said kicker, regardless of his individual talent. Sebastian Janikowski, Josh Scobee – there’s just nothing in the black bag for those guys.

In that same time period, there have been 59 teams that have finished no better than 4-12. Only 2 of those 59 ranked in the top 10 in kicking points (the Lions, who ranked 6th and 7th in kicking points in the 2006 and 2012 seasons). Only five other teams managed to crack the top 20.

These results tell us that on a week-to-week basis, the correct decision at kicker is usually to treat that position the same as an NFL survivor pool. If a middle-of-the-pack team has a choice matchup (making it seem like a 13-3 team for that Sunday) than you go with that kicker. Similarly, if one of the kickers from a great team is in a situation where the team looks more like a 6-10 type franchise (think Denver at Seattle), then there’s the spot where you sit him down.

Somebody asked about Matt Prater. The Lions look like a pretty good team. So with this kind of reasoning, he’s probably going to be one of the top dozen kickers. A better move, however, would be to go with the guy who replaced him, Brandon McManus. The Broncos look better than the Lions. And at this position, that means a lot.

KICKING POINTS FOR TEAMS WITH 13-PLUS WINS
YearTeamRecordPointsRank
2003New England14-211211
2003Kansas City13-310612-13
2004New England14-21411
2004Pittsburgh15-11243-4
2004Philadelphia13-31225-6
2005Denver13-31159
2005Seattle13-311013
2005Indianapolis14-21215-6
2006Chicago13-31431
2006San Diego14-21362
2006Baltimore13-31215
2007Green Bay13-31411
2007New England16-01372
2007Dallas13-31314
2007Indianapolis13-311810-12
2008Tennessee13-31277-10
2009San Diego13-31461
2009Indianapolis14-29822
2009New Orleans13-31265-6
2010New England14-21285-6
2010Atlanta13-31285-6
2011San Francisco13-31661
2011New Orleans13-31472
2011New England13-31433
2011Green Bay15-11404
2012Atlanta13-31433
2012Denver13-31337-8
2013Denver13-31502
2013Seattle13-31434
KICKING POINTS FOR TEAMS WITH 12-PLUS LOSSES
YearTeamRecordPointsRank
2002Detroit3-1310020-21
2002Houston4-127131
2002Cincinnati2-147528
2002Chicago4-129523
2003San Diego4-128128-30
2003Arizona4-127332
2003NY Giants4-128327
2003Oakland4-129422
2004San Francisco2-147730-31
2004Cleveland4-1210016-17
2004Miami4-128328
2005Green Bay4-129029-31
2005NY Jets4-129029-31
2005Oakland4-129029-31
2005Tennessee4-129921-22
2005San Francisco4-129921-22
2005New Orleans3-139725
2005Houston2-1410218
2006Oakland2-147032
2006Tampa Bay4-127331
2006Cleveland4-128829
2006Detroit3-131177
2007Oakland4-129726-27
2007St. Louis3-139726-27
2007NY Jets4-1211017-18
2007Kansas City4-127831
2007Miami1-158929
2007Atlanta4-1210323
2008Seattle4-1210226-27
2008Kansas City2-147932
2008Detroit0-168830
2008Cleveland4-1210822
2008St. Louis2-1411221
2009Tampa Bay3-137232
2009St. Louis1-157331
2009Detroit2-148829
2009Washington4-129227
2009Kansas City4-1210417
2010Cincinnati4-1210224-25
2010Denver4-1210422-23
2010Buffalo4-127932
2010Carolina2-149230
2011Cleveland4-129228-29
2011Indianapolis2-149326-27
2011Tampa Bay4-1210123-24
2011St. Louis2-148132
2011Minnesota3-1310422
2012Jacksonville2-149330-31
2012Oakland4-1211815-17
2012Kansas City2-1410126
2012Detroit4-121346
2012Philadelphia4-1210624
2013Cleveland4-129630-31
2013Washington3-139630-31
2013Oakland4-1210026-28
2013Tampa Bay4-1210026-28
2013Atlanta4-1211122-23
2013Jacksonville4-129132
2013Houston2-1410425

—Ian Allan

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