Factoid

October 08, 2014

Hot and cold kickers

When is the right time to make a waiver move on a kicker?

When do you pull the plug on a struggling kicker? If you’ve got a guy who’s been a great scorer in the past but has struggled for a few games, when do you kick him to the curb? Similarly, when a seemingly lesser kicker has had a couple of 11-point games, should we be rushing to the waiver wire to claim him?

Steven Hauschka and Mason Crosby come to mind as kickers I thought would be in the top 5 but thus far haven’t performed at that level. Should they be replaced by a guy like Dan Carpenter, who’s been very good for the Bills.

At the kicker position, I like to look more at the team than the actual player. Accuracy isn’t that important. If a guy hits 84 or 88 percent, who cares? They’re all good (expect for the guys who have been kicking for the Lions).

More important is the quality of the supporting cast – how often it can move the kicker into scoring position.

And if you look at win-loss records in recent years, this is easily underscored.

Since the league went to 32 teams in 2002, 29 teams have won at least 13 games. Only one of those teams ranked lower than 13th in kicking points. Over half of those teams ranked in the top 4 in kicking points, and over two thirds ranked in the top 6.

So if you’re of the belief that Seattle will win 13-plus games (which looks like a safe assumption) the correct move is to not worry too much about the fluctuation of week-to-week results. You stick with Hauschka.

Similarly, if you feel if a team is a big pile of whale crap, best to stay away from said kicker, regardless of his individual talent. Sebastian Janikowski, Josh Scobee – there’s just nothing in the black bag for those guys.

In that same time period, there have been 59 teams that have finished no better than 4-12. Only 2 of those 59 ranked in the top 10 in kicking points (the Lions, who ranked 6th and 7th in kicking points in the 2006 and 2012 seasons). Only five other teams managed to crack the top 20.

These results tell us that on a week-to-week basis, the correct decision at kicker is usually to treat that position the same as an NFL survivor pool. If a middle-of-the-pack team has a choice matchup (making it seem like a 13-3 team for that Sunday) than you go with that kicker. Similarly, if one of the kickers from a great team is in a situation where the team looks more like a 6-10 type franchise (think Denver at Seattle), then there’s the spot where you sit him down.

Somebody asked about Matt Prater. The Lions look like a pretty good team. So with this kind of reasoning, he’s probably going to be one of the top dozen kickers. A better move, however, would be to go with the guy who replaced him, Brandon McManus. The Broncos look better than the Lions. And at this position, that means a lot.

KICKING POINTS FOR TEAMS WITH 13-PLUS WINS
Year	Team	Record	Points	Rank
2003	New England	14-2	112	11
2003	Kansas City	13-3	106	12-13
2004	New England	14-2	141	1
2004	Pittsburgh	15-1	124	3-4
2004	Philadelphia	13-3	122	5-6
2005	Denver	13-3	115	9
2005	Seattle	13-3	110	13
2005	Indianapolis	14-2	121	5-6
2006	Chicago	13-3	143	1
2006	San Diego	14-2	136	2
2006	Baltimore	13-3	121	5
2007	Green Bay	13-3	141	1
2007	New England	16-0	137	2
2007	Dallas	13-3	131	4
2007	Indianapolis	13-3	118	10-12
2008	Tennessee	13-3	127	7-10
2009	San Diego	13-3	146	1
2009	Indianapolis	14-2	98	22
2009	New Orleans	13-3	126	5-6
2010	New England	14-2	128	5-6
2010	Atlanta	13-3	128	5-6
2011	San Francisco	13-3	166	1
2011	New Orleans	13-3	147	2
2011	New England	13-3	143	3
2011	Green Bay	15-1	140	4
2012	Atlanta	13-3	143	3
2012	Denver	13-3	133	7-8
2013	Denver	13-3	150	2
2013	Seattle	13-3	143	4

KICKING POINTS FOR TEAMS WITH 12-PLUS LOSSES
Year	Team	Record	Points	Rank
2002	Detroit	3-13	100	20-21
2002	Houston	4-12	71	31
2002	Cincinnati	2-14	75	28
2002	Chicago	4-12	95	23
2003	San Diego	4-12	81	28-30
2003	Arizona	4-12	73	32
2003	NY Giants	4-12	83	27
2003	Oakland	4-12	94	22
2004	San Francisco	2-14	77	30-31
2004	Cleveland	4-12	100	16-17
2004	Miami	4-12	83	28
2005	Green Bay	4-12	90	29-31
2005	NY Jets	4-12	90	29-31
2005	Oakland	4-12	90	29-31
2005	Tennessee	4-12	99	21-22
2005	San Francisco	4-12	99	21-22
2005	New Orleans	3-13	97	25
2005	Houston	2-14	102	18
2006	Oakland	2-14	70	32
2006	Tampa Bay	4-12	73	31
2006	Cleveland	4-12	88	29
2006	Detroit	3-13	117	7
2007	Oakland	4-12	97	26-27
2007	St. Louis	3-13	97	26-27
2007	NY Jets	4-12	110	17-18
2007	Kansas City	4-12	78	31
2007	Miami	1-15	89	29
2007	Atlanta	4-12	103	23
2008	Seattle	4-12	102	26-27
2008	Kansas City	2-14	79	32
2008	Detroit	0-16	88	30
2008	Cleveland	4-12	108	22
2008	St. Louis	2-14	112	21
2009	Tampa Bay	3-13	72	32
2009	St. Louis	1-15	73	31
2009	Detroit	2-14	88	29
2009	Washington	4-12	92	27
2009	Kansas City	4-12	104	17
2010	Cincinnati	4-12	102	24-25
2010	Denver	4-12	104	22-23
2010	Buffalo	4-12	79	32
2010	Carolina	2-14	92	30
2011	Cleveland	4-12	92	28-29
2011	Indianapolis	2-14	93	26-27
2011	Tampa Bay	4-12	101	23-24
2011	St. Louis	2-14	81	32
2011	Minnesota	3-13	104	22
2012	Jacksonville	2-14	93	30-31
2012	Oakland	4-12	118	15-17
2012	Kansas City	2-14	101	26
2012	Detroit	4-12	134	6
2012	Philadelphia	4-12	106	24
2013	Cleveland	4-12	96	30-31
2013	Washington	3-13	96	30-31
2013	Oakland	4-12	100	26-28
2013	Tampa Bay	4-12	100	26-28
2013	Atlanta	4-12	111	22-23
2013	Jacksonville	4-12	91	32
2013	Houston	2-14	104	25

—Ian Allan

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