When do you pull the plug on a struggling kicker? If you’ve got a guy who’s been a great scorer in the past but has struggled for a few games, when do you kick him to the curb? Similarly, when a seemingly lesser kicker has had a couple of 11-point games, should we be rushing to the waiver wire to claim him?
Steven Hauschka and Mason Crosby come to mind as kickers I thought would be in the top 5 but thus far haven’t performed at that level. Should they be replaced by a guy like Dan Carpenter, who’s been very good for the Bills.
At the kicker position, I like to look more at the team than the actual player. Accuracy isn’t that important. If a guy hits 84 or 88 percent, who cares? They’re all good (expect for the guys who have been kicking for the Lions).
More important is the quality of the supporting cast – how often it can move the kicker into scoring position.
And if you look at win-loss records in recent years, this is easily underscored.
Since the league went to 32 teams in 2002, 29 teams have won at least 13 games. Only one of those teams ranked lower than 13th in kicking points. Over half of those teams ranked in the top 4 in kicking points, and over two thirds ranked in the top 6.
So if you’re of the belief that Seattle will win 13-plus games (which looks like a safe assumption) the correct move is to not worry too much about the fluctuation of week-to-week results. You stick with Hauschka.
Similarly, if you feel if a team is a big pile of whale crap, best to stay away from said kicker, regardless of his individual talent. Sebastian Janikowski, Josh Scobee – there’s just nothing in the black bag for those guys.
In that same time period, there have been 59 teams that have finished no better than 4-12. Only 2 of those 59 ranked in the top 10 in kicking points (the Lions, who ranked 6th and 7th in kicking points in the 2006 and 2012 seasons). Only five other teams managed to crack the top 20.
These results tell us that on a week-to-week basis, the correct decision at kicker is usually to treat that position the same as an NFL survivor pool. If a middle-of-the-pack team has a choice matchup (making it seem like a 13-3 team for that Sunday) than you go with that kicker. Similarly, if one of the kickers from a great team is in a situation where the team looks more like a 6-10 type franchise (think Denver at Seattle), then there’s the spot where you sit him down.
Somebody asked about Matt Prater. The Lions look like a pretty good team. So with this kind of reasoning, he’s probably going to be one of the top dozen kickers. A better move, however, would be to go with the guy who replaced him, Brandon McManus. The Broncos look better than the Lions. And at this position, that means a lot.
KICKING POINTS FOR TEAMS WITH 13-PLUS WINS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Record | Points | Rank |
2003 | New England | 14-2 | 112 | 11 |
2003 | Kansas City | 13-3 | 106 | 12-13 |
2004 | New England | 14-2 | 141 | 1 |
2004 | Pittsburgh | 15-1 | 124 | 3-4 |
2004 | Philadelphia | 13-3 | 122 | 5-6 |
2005 | Denver | 13-3 | 115 | 9 |
2005 | Seattle | 13-3 | 110 | 13 |
2005 | Indianapolis | 14-2 | 121 | 5-6 |
2006 | Chicago | 13-3 | 143 | 1 |
2006 | San Diego | 14-2 | 136 | 2 |
2006 | Baltimore | 13-3 | 121 | 5 |
2007 | Green Bay | 13-3 | 141 | 1 |
2007 | New England | 16-0 | 137 | 2 |
2007 | Dallas | 13-3 | 131 | 4 |
2007 | Indianapolis | 13-3 | 118 | 10-12 |
2008 | Tennessee | 13-3 | 127 | 7-10 |
2009 | San Diego | 13-3 | 146 | 1 |
2009 | Indianapolis | 14-2 | 98 | 22 |
2009 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 126 | 5-6 |
2010 | New England | 14-2 | 128 | 5-6 |
2010 | Atlanta | 13-3 | 128 | 5-6 |
2011 | San Francisco | 13-3 | 166 | 1 |
2011 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 147 | 2 |
2011 | New England | 13-3 | 143 | 3 |
2011 | Green Bay | 15-1 | 140 | 4 |
2012 | Atlanta | 13-3 | 143 | 3 |
2012 | Denver | 13-3 | 133 | 7-8 |
2013 | Denver | 13-3 | 150 | 2 |
2013 | Seattle | 13-3 | 143 | 4 |
KICKING POINTS FOR TEAMS WITH 12-PLUS LOSSES | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Record | Points | Rank |
2002 | Detroit | 3-13 | 100 | 20-21 |
2002 | Houston | 4-12 | 71 | 31 |
2002 | Cincinnati | 2-14 | 75 | 28 |
2002 | Chicago | 4-12 | 95 | 23 |
2003 | San Diego | 4-12 | 81 | 28-30 |
2003 | Arizona | 4-12 | 73 | 32 |
2003 | NY Giants | 4-12 | 83 | 27 |
2003 | Oakland | 4-12 | 94 | 22 |
2004 | San Francisco | 2-14 | 77 | 30-31 |
2004 | Cleveland | 4-12 | 100 | 16-17 |
2004 | Miami | 4-12 | 83 | 28 |
2005 | Green Bay | 4-12 | 90 | 29-31 |
2005 | NY Jets | 4-12 | 90 | 29-31 |
2005 | Oakland | 4-12 | 90 | 29-31 |
2005 | Tennessee | 4-12 | 99 | 21-22 |
2005 | San Francisco | 4-12 | 99 | 21-22 |
2005 | New Orleans | 3-13 | 97 | 25 |
2005 | Houston | 2-14 | 102 | 18 |
2006 | Oakland | 2-14 | 70 | 32 |
2006 | Tampa Bay | 4-12 | 73 | 31 |
2006 | Cleveland | 4-12 | 88 | 29 |
2006 | Detroit | 3-13 | 117 | 7 |
2007 | Oakland | 4-12 | 97 | 26-27 |
2007 | St. Louis | 3-13 | 97 | 26-27 |
2007 | NY Jets | 4-12 | 110 | 17-18 |
2007 | Kansas City | 4-12 | 78 | 31 |
2007 | Miami | 1-15 | 89 | 29 |
2007 | Atlanta | 4-12 | 103 | 23 |
2008 | Seattle | 4-12 | 102 | 26-27 |
2008 | Kansas City | 2-14 | 79 | 32 |
2008 | Detroit | 0-16 | 88 | 30 |
2008 | Cleveland | 4-12 | 108 | 22 |
2008 | St. Louis | 2-14 | 112 | 21 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 3-13 | 72 | 32 |
2009 | St. Louis | 1-15 | 73 | 31 |
2009 | Detroit | 2-14 | 88 | 29 |
2009 | Washington | 4-12 | 92 | 27 |
2009 | Kansas City | 4-12 | 104 | 17 |
2010 | Cincinnati | 4-12 | 102 | 24-25 |
2010 | Denver | 4-12 | 104 | 22-23 |
2010 | Buffalo | 4-12 | 79 | 32 |
2010 | Carolina | 2-14 | 92 | 30 |
2011 | Cleveland | 4-12 | 92 | 28-29 |
2011 | Indianapolis | 2-14 | 93 | 26-27 |
2011 | Tampa Bay | 4-12 | 101 | 23-24 |
2011 | St. Louis | 2-14 | 81 | 32 |
2011 | Minnesota | 3-13 | 104 | 22 |
2012 | Jacksonville | 2-14 | 93 | 30-31 |
2012 | Oakland | 4-12 | 118 | 15-17 |
2012 | Kansas City | 2-14 | 101 | 26 |
2012 | Detroit | 4-12 | 134 | 6 |
2012 | Philadelphia | 4-12 | 106 | 24 |
2013 | Cleveland | 4-12 | 96 | 30-31 |
2013 | Washington | 3-13 | 96 | 30-31 |
2013 | Oakland | 4-12 | 100 | 26-28 |
2013 | Tampa Bay | 4-12 | 100 | 26-28 |
2013 | Atlanta | 4-12 | 111 | 22-23 |
2013 | Jacksonville | 4-12 | 91 | 32 |
2013 | Houston | 2-14 | 104 | 25 |
—Ian Allan