We must give credit to Bill Belichick. His teams tend to improve throughout the year, both offensively and defensively, and that’s something that can be seen in the numbers.
What better test for this kind of thing, then to look at games inside the division? Then you’ve got the same two teams, playing again for a second time.
And when you look at the first games for each team, then compare them against what happens in the rematch, it’s apparent why many feel Belichick is the best coach in the game today.
I felt this was a timely topic, with divisional rematches showing up. The Cowboys and 49ers, for example, got dusted by the Eagles and Seahawks just two weeks ago. Is there any hope for these teams in the rematch? And should we care at all that New England got hammered pretty good by Miami back in Week 1.
Anyway, I got out the numbers for the last 12 years. That’s each team playing 6 of these kind of games each year. So for each team, there are 36 initial games, and there are 36 rematch games.
For points scored, three teams have averaged more than 3 points more in the rematches. Arizona is No. 1, followed by Seattle and New England. Offenses that have tended to falter in rematches include the Cowboys, Bears and Broncos.
Defensively, the Chargers, Cowboys and Eagles have been the most improved, all at over 3 points per game. Patriots aren’t far back, in the No. 6 spot. Arizona, Tampa Bay and Denver have tended to fall off the most.
Ultimately, you put those numbers together and you get an idea of which teams are really getting better. The Patriots come out in front, at an average of 5.5 per game. That is, a 24-21 win tends to end up more like 28-20 or 30-21. A 22-20 loss becomes a 23-20 loss. Now, 5.5 points might not seem like much, but that’s over a sample set of 72 games (36 at home, 36 on the road). In those games, Belichick and his staff, through film study (wink, wink) and coaching somehow has made his teams 198 points better in those 36 followup games against inside-the-division opponents.
San Diego is No. 2 on this list, but well back at 4.2 points per game.
The Broncos, Bears and Browns have tended to be your least-improved teams over the last 12 years.
Here’s the overall chart, with the combined numbers for offense and defense.
| OVERALL IMPROVEMENT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Off | Def | Total |
| New England | 3.2 | 2.3 | 5.5 |
| San Diego | -.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Seattle | 3.9 | -.1 | 3.8 |
| Oakland | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| Cincinnati | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| Washington | 2.9 | .3 | 3.2 |
| Detroit | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Philadelphia | .0 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Pittsburgh | .0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Indianapolis | 1.7 | .2 | 1.9 |
| New Orleans | -.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Tennessee | -1.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Buffalo | .3 | .9 | 1.3 |
| Arizona | 4.2 | -3.3 | .9 |
| Minnesota | -.6 | 1.3 | .8 |
| Green Bay | -.5 | 1.1 | .6 |
| Carolina | 2.5 | -2.4 | .1 |
| Atlanta | .6 | -.7 | -.1 |
| Jacksonville | 2.2 | -2.5 | -.3 |
| Baltimore | -.4 | -.6 | -1.1 |
| Kansas City | -1.1 | -.2 | -1.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 1.6 | -3.2 | -1.6 |
| St. Louis | -.4 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| Dallas | -6.6 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| San Francisco | -.7 | -2.3 | -3.0 |
| Houston | -3.7 | .6 | -3.1 |
| Miami | -1.0 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| NY Jets | -.7 | -2.8 | -3.4 |
| NY Giants | -3.7 | .2 | -3.5 |
| Cleveland | -2.2 | -2.2 | -4.4 |
| Chicago | -4.3 | -.3 | -4.5 |
| Denver | -3.8 | -2.8 | -6.6 |
Here’s the offensive numbers. Points scored only.
| SCORING INSIDE DIVISION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Open | Rematch | Diff |
| Arizona | 18.1 | 22.3 | 4.2 |
| Seattle | 22.4 | 26.3 | 3.9 |
| New England | 25.7 | 28.9 | 3.2 |
| Washington | 16.4 | 19.4 | 2.9 |
| Carolina | 20.0 | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| Oakland | 17.4 | 19.7 | 2.3 |
| Jacksonville | 18.5 | 20.7 | 2.2 |
| Indianapolis | 24.5 | 26.1 | 1.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 18.9 | 20.5 | 1.6 |
| Detroit | 18.0 | 19.1 | 1.1 |
| Cincinnati | 19.5 | 20.5 | 1.0 |
| Atlanta | 20.6 | 21.2 | .6 |
| Buffalo | 17.9 | 18.3 | .3 |
| Philadelphia | 23.7 | 23.7 | .0 |
| Pittsburgh | 22.1 | 22.1 | .0 |
| New Orleans | 24.0 | 23.7 | -.3 |
| St. Louis | 18.2 | 17.8 | -.4 |
| Baltimore | 21.3 | 20.9 | -.4 |
| Green Bay | 25.8 | 25.2 | -.5 |
| Minnesota | 23.2 | 22.7 | -.6 |
| NY Jets | 20.1 | 19.4 | -.7 |
| San Francisco | 22.4 | 21.7 | -.7 |
| San Diego | 26.0 | 25.2 | -.9 |
| Miami | 18.8 | 17.8 | -1.0 |
| Kansas City | 20.6 | 19.5 | -1.1 |
| Tennessee | 20.4 | 19.2 | -1.2 |
| Cleveland | 17.1 | 14.9 | -2.2 |
| NY Giants | 24.3 | 20.6 | -3.7 |
| Houston | 22.9 | 19.2 | -3.7 |
| Denver | 26.5 | 22.7 | -3.8 |
| Chicago | 24.2 | 19.9 | -4.3 |
| Dallas | 24.3 | 17.7 | -6.6 |
| Average | 21.4 | 21.2 | |
And here are the defensive numbers (points allowed in those inside division games)
| DEFENSE INSIDE DIVISION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Open | Rematch | Diff |
| San Diego | 23.3 | 18.3 | 5.0 |
| Dallas | 24.8 | 21.0 | 3.8 |
| Philadelphia | 20.8 | 17.7 | 3.1 |
| Tennessee | 23.1 | 20.3 | 2.8 |
| Cincinnati | 23.4 | 20.9 | 2.6 |
| New England | 17.9 | 15.6 | 2.3 |
| Detroit | 26.3 | 24.2 | 2.1 |
| New Orleans | 21.5 | 19.6 | 1.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 17.1 | 15.2 | 1.9 |
| Oakland | 23.8 | 22.3 | 1.5 |
| Minnesota | 23.8 | 22.5 | 1.3 |
| Green Bay | 20.3 | 19.2 | 1.1 |
| Buffalo | 24.3 | 23.4 | .9 |
| Houston | 23.5 | 22.9 | .6 |
| Washington | 21.9 | 21.6 | .3 |
| NY Giants | 21.3 | 21.0 | .2 |
| Indianapolis | 19.0 | 18.8 | .2 |
| Seattle | 17.8 | 17.9 | -.1 |
| Kansas City | 23.2 | 23.4 | -.2 |
| Chicago | 20.7 | 21.0 | -.3 |
| Baltimore | 17.2 | 17.9 | -.6 |
| Atlanta | 22.6 | 23.3 | -.7 |
| St. Louis | 22.9 | 24.2 | -1.3 |
| Cleveland | 22.3 | 24.4 | -2.2 |
| San Francisco | 18.9 | 21.2 | -2.3 |
| Miami | 20.2 | 22.6 | -2.4 |
| Carolina | 19.9 | 22.3 | -2.4 |
| Jacksonville | 20.8 | 23.3 | -2.5 |
| NY Jets | 20.0 | 22.7 | -2.8 |
| Denver | 20.3 | 23.1 | -2.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 19.5 | 22.7 | -3.2 |
| Arizona | 21.6 | 24.8 | -3.3 |
| Average | 21.4 | 21.2 | |
And here are the simple wins and losses. I didn’t make a bigger deal of this one because the Patriots actually did a lot worse than I expected. They’ve gone a league-best 30-6 in those initial matchups (32-7 if you include this year), so they actually fall short in the rematch games.
The guy who comes to mind on this chart is Jeff Fisher. Tennessee ranks No. 1, and Fisher was the coach for most of those teams. Now he’s coaching a Rams team that’s been a lot better in the second half of the season two years in a row.
| RECORDS IN DIVISION GAMES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Open | Rematch | Difference |
| Tennessee | (14-22-0) | (21-15-0) | .194 |
| Cincinnati | (14-22-0) | (20-16-0) | .167 |
| San Diego | (20-16-0) | (26-10-0) | .167 |
| Miami | (11-25-0) | (17-19-0) | .167 |
| Philadelphia | (19-17-0) | (24-12-0) | .139 |
| Washington | (10-26-0) | (14-22-0) | .111 |
| Seattle | (20-16-0) | (24-12-0) | .111 |
| Minnesota | (17-19-0) | (20-15-1) | .097 |
| Carolina | (18-18-0) | (21-15-0) | .083 |
| Kansas City | (14-22-0) | (17-19-0) | .083 |
| Indianapolis | (26-10-0) | (28-8-0) | .056 |
| Arizona | (15-21-0) | (17-19-0) | .056 |
| Oakland | (11-25-0) | (13-23-0) | .056 |
| Buffalo | (12-24-0) | (13-23-0) | .028 |
| Tampa Bay | (15-21-0) | (16-20-0) | .028 |
| Green Bay | (25-11-0) | (25-10-1) | .014 |
| Detroit | (9-27-0) | (9-27-0) | .000 |
| Pittsburgh | (25-11-0) | (25-11-0) | .000 |
| St. Louis | (13-22-1) | (12-24-0) | -.042 |
| Cleveland | (10-26-0) | (8-28-0) | -.056 |
| Atlanta | (18-18-0) | (16-20-0) | -.056 |
| New Orleans | (21-15-0) | (19-17-0) | -.056 |
| Dallas | (20-16-0) | (17-19-0) | -.083 |
| New England | (30-6-0) | (27-9-0) | -.083 |
| Baltimore | (23-13-0) | (19-17-0) | -.111 |
| NY Jets | (19-17-0) | (15-21-0) | -.111 |
| Houston | (15-21-0) | (11-25-0) | -.111 |
| Chicago | (21-15-0) | (17-19-0) | -.111 |
| San Francisco | (23-12-1) | (19-17-0) | -.125 |
| Jacksonville | (17-19-0) | (12-24-0) | -.139 |
| NY Giants | (23-13-0) | (17-19-0) | -.167 |
| Denver | (27-9-0) | (16-20-0) | -.306 |
—Ian Allan