I’ve been checking in with some customize, money-type stats on Saturdays. I’ve been focusing on quarterback, running backs and pass catchers. Trying to figure out who’s getting the ball around the goal line, and who’s the most effective.
I’m flipping it around this time. Looking instead at defenses.
Specifically, we’ve got passing inside the 10. You take all plays where the ball starts anywhere from the 1 to 10 and see who’s the most effective.
Starting with completion percentage. The Giants, Bengals and Rams have been the stingiest in this part of the field, allowing under 40 percent completions.
Tampa Bay and Houston have been by far the worst, allowing 80 percent completions in that part of the field. This should make guys starting Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco tomorrow happy.
Two other defenses have allowed over 65 percent completions inside the 10, Seattle and Miami. The Seahawks are a surprise to me.
| COMPLETION PERCENTAGE INSIDE 10 (passing) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Comp | Att | Pct |
| 1. | NY Giants | 8 | 24 | 33.3% |
| 2. | Cincinnati | 9 | 24 | 37.5% |
| 3. | St. Louis | 8 | 21 | 38.1% |
| 4. | Atlanta | 14 | 35 | 40.0% |
| 5. | Dallas | 13 | 29 | 44.8% |
| 6. | Tennessee | 14 | 30 | 46.7% |
| 7. | Oakland | 15 | 32 | 46.9% |
| 8. | Indianapolis | 15 | 32 | 46.9% |
| 9. | San Diego | 18 | 38 | 47.4% |
| 10. | Green Bay | 19 | 39 | 48.7% |
| 11. | San Francisco | 15 | 30 | 50.0% |
| 12. | NY Jets | 14 | 28 | 50.0% |
| 13. | Philadelphia | 16 | 31 | 51.6% |
| 14. | Pittsburgh | 15 | 29 | 51.7% |
| 15. | Baltimore | 13 | 25 | 52.0% |
| 16. | Jacksonville | 17 | 32 | 53.1% |
| 17. | Kansas City | 20 | 36 | 55.6% |
| 18. | New England | 20 | 35 | 57.1% |
| 19. | Detroit | 16 | 28 | 57.1% |
| 20. | Buffalo | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| 21. | Chicago | 28 | 47 | 59.6% |
| 22. | Washington | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 23. | Cleveland | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| 24. | New Orleans | 18 | 29 | 62.1% |
| 25. | Denver | 27 | 43 | 62.8% |
| 26. | Arizona | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| 27. | Carolina | 16 | 25 | 64.0% |
| 28. | Minnesota | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| 29. | Miami | 16 | 24 | 66.7% |
| 30. | Seattle | 23 | 33 | 69.7% |
| 31. | Tampa Bay | 24 | 30 | 80.0% |
| 32. | Houston | 16 | 20 | 80.0% |
More important than completions, of course, are touchdowns. (Who cares if a running back catches a flare pass and is stopped for no gain?). More telling is how often a defense allows an opponent to get the ball in the end zone.
The top defenses here have been the Giants and Rams, both allowing scores on less than 20 percent of pass plays. This strengthens my belief that the over-under for that Giants-Rams game tomorrow (44 points) is way too high.
The Bengals and Chargers have also tended to play good pass defense inside the 10.
The Texans, Vikings and Dolphins, on average, have played the worst pass defense inside the 10. Each of those teams have allowed opponents to successfully get the ball in the end zone on over half of their pass plays. (Despite this data, I still think that the over-under for the Miami-Minnesota game is also too high at 42.5 points.)
Seattle improves in this category but still doesn’t grade out as well as you might think – a bottom-10 defense in this category.
| SCORING PERCENTAGE INSIDE 10 (passing) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Plays | TD | Pct |
| 1. | NY Giants | 25 | 4 | 16.0% |
| 2. | St. Louis | 21 | 4 | 19.0% |
| 3. | Cincinnati | 25 | 6 | 24.0% |
| 4. | San Diego | 39 | 10 | 25.6% |
| 5. | Green Bay | 44 | 12 | 27.3% |
| 6. | Jacksonville | 35 | 10 | 28.6% |
| 7. | Oakland | 32 | 10 | 31.3% |
| 8. | Atlanta | 36 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 9. | Philadelphia | 33 | 11 | 33.3% |
| 10. | New England | 38 | 13 | 34.2% |
| 11. | Dallas | 29 | 10 | 34.5% |
| 12. | Kansas City | 39 | 14 | 35.9% |
| 13. | Indianapolis | 33 | 12 | 36.4% |
| 14. | San Francisco | 33 | 12 | 36.4% |
| 15. | Tennessee | 33 | 12 | 36.4% |
| 16. | Arizona | 21 | 8 | 38.1% |
| 17. | Buffalo | 21 | 8 | 38.1% |
| 18. | Cleveland | 21 | 8 | 38.1% |
| 19. | Denver | 44 | 17 | 38.6% |
| 20. | Chicago | 49 | 19 | 38.8% |
| 21. | NY Jets | 30 | 12 | 40.0% |
| 22. | Detroit | 31 | 13 | 41.9% |
| 23. | Baltimore | 26 | 11 | 42.3% |
| 24. | Seattle | 33 | 14 | 42.4% |
| 25. | Pittsburgh | 30 | 13 | 43.3% |
| 26. | Tampa Bay | 32 | 14 | 43.8% |
| 27. | Washington | 22 | 10 | 45.5% |
| 28. | Carolina | 25 | 12 | 48.0% |
| 29. | New Orleans | 31 | 15 | 48.4% |
| 30. | Miami | 25 | 13 | 52.0% |
| 31. | Minnesota | 17 | 10 | 58.8% |
| 32. | Houston | 22 | 13 | 59.1% |
—Ian Allan