I think pretty much everyone's initial reaction to the story that footballs might have been underinflated in the Patriots-Colts game was bemusement. Did anyone think the outcome of that eyesore of a football game was in anyway affected by air pressure in the footballs? Dwayne Allen himself said they could have played with soap for footballs; that the Patriots were simply the better team. And that's true.
Which is what makes the NFL's initial report so vexing. The fact that 11 of 12 footballs were underinflated makes it pretty likely that this was no boating accident. New England was home, heavily favored, and the superior team in pretty much every respect, yet someone apparently -- apparently -- felt the need to increase the advantage by adjusting the shape and feel of the footballs at some point prior to the start of the game.
It's crazy. Both teams were playing with the footballs, so it would have affected both teams' passing games equally. I guess the theory goes that since New England had the superior running game and knew it would be able to run it on the Colts, the deflated footballs would have a greater impact on Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense, since they weren't about to be out there pounding away with Dan Herron.
The problem with that idea is that underinflated footballs are apparently easier to grip and throw, so it would help the passing games. If so, presumably someone felt the need to level the playing field for old man Brady compared to young gun Andrew Luck.
Whatever. We will try not to rush to judgment. Maybe the officiating crew screwed up in their evaluation of the footballs prior to the game. Maybe some random employee accidentally goofed while inflating them. Maybe frigid temperatures in Foxborough caused the problems. Any number of completely innocent possibilities leap to mind, which we'll go with as reasonable since it's unlikely anyone at any point comes out and says, "You got us."
It's a good thing there's two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. Just maybe the extra time will enable this whole thing to be resolved -- innocently, one hopes! -- by the weekend, and we can all move on. Few doubt that New England was the AFC's best team, and it should be a great Super Bowl between a couple of worthy opponents.
But it's tough to let go this idea that the Patriots, determined to make a return trip to the Super Bowl, saw a sneaky way to improve their odds and took it. Somebody on the pecking order between Bob Kraft and Tom Brady said, Hey, let's do this thing to mess up Andrew Luck's game and/or help Tom Brady's and increase our chances of getting that elusive 4th Super Bowl.
Fantasy-wise, assuming New England isn't cleared, look for the Patriots to lose a high draft pick (or more) and pay a hefty fine. New England tends to blow a lot of its high draft picks anyway, and Kraft and Belichick have plenty of money, so not a huge deal.
Ultimately, one hopes it isn't true, because you know, they aren't going to replay the AFC Championship or disqualify the Patriots and send the Colts to the big game. They'll play the game in Arizona with the Seahawks and Patriots, and Media Day and most of the talk leading up to it will be not about Tom Brady's place in history, but this scandal and Bill Belichick's Patriots' place in history.
And it's a shame.
--Andy Richardson